Abstract
Department of Energy of Philippines statistics reveal that from 2000 to 2010, the road transport fuel consumption and corresponding CO2 emissions have grown modestly with an annual growth rate of 0.5%. This modest growth is in contrast to the rapid increase in vehicle numbers, economic activity and in absence of implementation of comprehensive sustainable transport policies and options. The main objective of this research is to correlate official fuel consumption data (i.e. top-down) with bottom up quantifications and provide relevant policy recommendations. Based on the assessment of transport demand variables and review of policies and strategies, fuel consumption in transport sector was found to be growing at a much faster rate when compared to official estimates. Use of official data on fuel consumption in road transport sector may lead to serious errors. This has huge implications on policies and investments.
Highlights
Latest data from Department of Energy (DOE) [1] in the Philippines on fuel consumption in road transport sector suggests that road transport energy consumption has slowed down over the past decade with an annual growth rate of only 0.5% from 2000 to 2010 (6.7 MTOE in 2000 to 7.1 MTOE in 2010) when compared with 11% growth between 1990 to 1996 (Figure 1)
Latest document on Clean Technology Fund Plan [2] for Philippines reports that road transport carbon emissions have increased at 6% - 10% annually from 1990 to 2007 and this growth has resulted in relative doubling of transport share in the total emissions
Current modeling done by Department of Energy and Department of Transportation and Communications [2] point to different conclusions with regards to energy consumption projections in transport sector
Summary
Gasoline consumption over the same period has increased by nearly 1%, i.e. increase from 2.7 to 3 MTOE while diesel consumption has not shown any increase and has remained constant around 4 MTOE from 2000 to 2010 This is in contrast to findings from Department of Transport and Communications (DOTC) and investigations. This discussion is concluded by correlating top down fuel consumption data with bottom-up estimates and possible scenarios are tested to derive recommendations
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