Abstract
The Australian government is still basing policy on the concept that sea level will rise by 1.1 meters along the Australian coastline by 2100. The Department of the Environment has proposed a 10 billion dollar dike to save Melbourne from the hypothetical rising sea. In reality the tide gauges of Victoria are recording average relative rates of rise of less than 1 mm/year, in perfect agreement with the National average. At this rate sea level will rise by only 8.5 cm by 2100 but even this estimate may be too high. The worldwide average sea level rise, based on only tide gauges of sufficient quality and length, is only about 0.25 mm/year, with zero acceleration over the last few decades. Such a rise can be dealt with by local adaption, as in the last 100 years, and there is no need for any engineering structures, let alone the proposed 10'billion dollar scheme with its accompanying environmental and social problems.
Highlights
After having clarified the global empirical evidence available, aim of this paper is to evaluate the relative sea level rise for Melbourne, to discuss how likely is the occurrence of a sea level rise of 1 meter by 2100 claimed to motivate the 10 billion dollar sea wall project
The IPCC report finds that the rate of sea level rise over the last century is unusually high in the context of the last 2,000 years”
“If emissions continue to track at the top of IPCC scenarios global average sea level could rise by nearly 1 m by 2100 (0.52−0.98 m from a 19862005 baseline)
Summary
Thoughts, interpretations are done by the author. (1) Wen-Cheng Liu, Department of Civil and Disaster Prevention Engineering, National United University, Taiwan and Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National United University, Taipei, Taiwan. (2) Nagendra Pratap Singh, Department of Geophysics, Banaras Hindu University, India. (1) Meine Pieter van Dijk, ISS of Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands. (2) Adriano Mazzarella, University of Naples Federico II, Italy. (3) Joseph Harari, Department of Physical, Chemical and Geological Oceanography, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. (4) Ahmed Raissouni, Department of Geology, Abdelmalek Essaâdi University, Morocco. (5) Anonymous, University of St. Thomas, USA.
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