Is increased flooding in Bangkok a result of rising local temperatures?

Abstract

The recent increase in the frequency of urban flooding in Bangkok has led to speculation that global warming may be to blame. Assessing this, however, is challenging, as Bangkok represents an ever-changing environment with changing storm drainage infrastructure, limited flood and precipitation data, and a tropical setting that complicates the relationship precipitation extremes exhibit with temperature. This study attempts to create a framework to investigate the merits of the above speculation, using ground observations of precipitation maxima, flood inundation, and dew point temperature, along with simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to present multiple lines of evidence to compensate for the weaknesses any individual evidence may have. The complexity of flooding in an urban stormwater drainage network is accounted by focussing instead on flood inundation information conditional to the incident dew point temperature which is increasing as a result of warming. The assessment identifies a markedly different pattern of change in the east versus the west of the city, attributing this to population change in the two parts, further complicating the link to global warming. Application of the developed methodology using the most recent GCM simulations available suggests the increase in flooding is a pattern that can be expected to continue.