Is Europe prepared to live without emissions? A dynamic analysis of the energy transition in economic sectors

Abstract

Europe has experienced the adverse effects of climate change due to the human footprint on a scale never seen before. The region's future appears challenging as it persistently adheres to conventional practices. To address this, social movements in Europe must advocate for policymakers to earnestly undertake the widely advocated energy transition within the existing socioeconomic model. A crucial aspect for governments is to comprehend the status along the trajectory of this transition. In this study, we investigate the intricate relationship between emissions, economy, and energy spanning the years 1990 to 2019 across 32 European countries. Our analysis differentiates among major polluting sectors, utilizing a dynamic model that accounts for potential structural breaks. Our findings confirm the presence of ruptures in the stability of the parameters, revealing three distinct periods marked by historical shocks. While the majority of European countries exhibit a decoupling between emissions and economic growth, a contrasting trend is observed between emissions and energy consumption. Notably, the energy supply and residential sectors emerge as the most problematic due to their high carbon intensity. However, the decoupling process remains distant in terms of energy, underscoring the imperative shift toward renewable energy sources over conventional fossil-based fuels. This study emphasizes the urgency of adopting sustainable practices to mitigate climate change and encourages a revaluation of current energy paradigms.