Is composition of vertebrates an indicator of the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens?

Abstract

ABSTRACT Communities of vertebrates tend to appear together under similar ranges of environmental features. This study explores whether an explicit combination of vertebrates and their contact rates with a tick vector might constitute an indicator of the prevalence of a pathogen in the quest for ticks at the western Palearctic scale. We asked how ‘indicator’ communities could be ‘markers’ of the actual infection rates of the tick in the field of two species of Borrelia (a bacterium transmitted by the tick Ixodes ricinus). We approached an unsupervised classification of the territory to obtain clusters on the grounds of abundance of each vertebrate and contact rates with the tick. Statistical models based on Neural Networks, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and AdaBoost were detect the best correlation between communities’ composition and the prevalence of Borrelia afzelii and Borrelia gariniii in questing ticks. Both Gradient Boosting and AdaBoost produced the best results, predicting tick infection rates from the indicator communities. A ranking algorithm demonstrated that the prevalence of these bacteria in the tick is correlated with indicator communities of vertebrates on sites selected as a proof-of-concept. We acknowledge that our findings are supported by statistical outcomes, but they provide consistency for a framework that should be deeper explored at the large scale.