Abstract
This work proposes and evaluates a method for the nowcasting of solar irradiance variability in multiple time horizons, namely 5, 10, and 15 min ahead. The method is based on a Convolutional Neural Network structure that exploits infrared sky images acquired through an All-Sky Imager to estimate the range of possible values that the Clear-Sky Index will possibly assume over a selected forecast horizon. All data available, from the infrared images to the measurements of Global Horizontal Irradiance (necessary in order to compute Clear-Sky Index), are acquired at SolarTechLAB in Politecnico di Milano. The proposed method demonstrated a discrete performance level, with an accuracy peak for the 5 min time horizon, where about 65% of the available samples are attributed to the correct range of Clear-Sky Index values.
Highlights
Power generation from a renewable energy source (RES) is becoming increasingly popular to meet the ever-growing global energy demand and to limit fossil fuel-related greenhouse gas emissions
The method is based on a Convolutional Neural Network structure that exploits infrared sky images acquired through an All-Sky Imager to estimate the range of possible values that the Clear-Sky Index will possibly assume over a selected forecast horizon
The present work proposed a new nowcasting method to calculate the variability of solar irradiation over multiple time horizons, namely 5, 10, and 15 min ahead
Summary
Power generation from a renewable energy source (RES) is becoming increasingly popular to meet the ever-growing global energy demand and to limit fossil fuel-related greenhouse gas emissions. Over the last few decades, solar and wind have experienced significant growth in terms of installed capacity together with continuous technological improvement [1]. Theoretical analyses show that solar energy alone, with adequate technology to collect and store it, could meet the energy demand of the entire world [3]. Global energy consumption recorded in 2017 was around 18.1 TW and is projected to be around 28 TW by 2050, while land-based solar energy in one year is estimated at 23,000 TW. Solar energy is a renewable source, and its exploitation for energy production does not cause polluting emissions and greenhouse gases [4]
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