Iran’s changing naval strategy in the Persian Gulf: motives and features

Abstract

ABSTRACT Beginning in 2016 Iran’s naval posture in the Persian Gulf changed from a defensive-offensive strategy, which had been in effect since 2001, to an offensive one. This was reinforced in 2019–2020, when, in response to the Trump administration, Iranian military strategists determined that any potential confrontation with the country’s adversaries is likely to take place at sea rather than on land or in the air. After the end of the Iran–Iraq war, Iran’s naval strategies can be divided into three, each coinciding with different periods: defensive (1988–2001), defensive-offensive (2001–2016) and offensive (since 2016). The intensification of the US military presence in the Persian Gulf and issuing threats against Iran have played a central role Tehran’s adoption of an offensive naval strategy. Features of this new strategy include the development of ballistic and cruise missile programmes; development and deployment of drones in naval manoeuvres; the use of air defence in supporting naval operations; deepening Iran’s military presence in Persian Gulf islands; ensuring the ability to disrupt the flow of energy; conducting naval manoeuvres in collaboration with trans-regional powers and continued use of proxy warfare. Tehran believes the new strategy will help it better prepare for international threats.