Abstract
An analytical method has been developed for evaluating the dependence of historical fish stock levels on estuarine pollutant loadings. Categorical time series regressions were used to derive preliminary relationships among previous levels of stock size, climatic variables, and pollution indicators. The analysis technique is used here to evaluate hypotheses on the effects of human population changes and dredging activity on stock histories of the Potomac estuary’s striped bass and American shad, for the period 1929 through 1976. Whereas climatic factors dominate striped bass dynamics compared to the two pollution variates tested, the American shad stock shows strong dependence on human population levels (but not on dredging activity) compared to climatic factors. Analyses of this type will be extended for examining the effects of specific pollutants on other important exploited stocks in five northeastern eatuaries.
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