Investigating the probabilistic reasoning in verbal–numerical and graphical–pictorial formats in relation to cognitive and non-cognitive dimensions: The proposal of a model

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to understand the role played by several individual and contextual variables in accounting for the subjects' performance in probabilistic reasoning problems, presented in verbal–numerical and graphical–pictorial formats, respectively. Structural equation models linking these variables were proposed. Three samples of psychology undergraduate students in Spain (n=127) and Italy (n=549, of whom n=173 were working under time pressure) who had no statistical expertise were requested to solve problems and to complete a set of questionnaires investigating abilities, statistical anxiety, attitudes towards statistics and confidence in the correctness of responses. Distinct models for the two formats were evaluated in each sample. The outcomes showed specificities in the relationships of variables. The dissimilarities between performances in the two formats were highlighted; moreover, similarities and differences were observed in the two countries and among Italians working with and without time pressure. These findings indicate that previous school experiences played a central role in accounting for the performances of students lacking knowledge about statistics, especially in the absence of time pressure. However, confidence showed a strong influence on performance in both formats in the presence of time pressure. The results are discussed in relation to their theoretical meanings and applications.