Abstract
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector is known to be an important contribution to climate change mitigation. Some parts of the transport sector are particularly difficult to decarbonize; this includes the heavy-duty vehicle sector, which is considered one of the “hard-to-abate” sectors of the economy. Transitioning from diesel trucks to hydrogen fuel cell trucks has been identified as a potential way to decarbonize the sector. However, the current and future costs and efficiencies of the enabling technologies remain unclear. In light of these uncertainties, this paper investigates the investments required to decarbonize New Zealand’s heavy-duty vehicle sector with green hydrogen. By combining system dynamics modelling literature and hydrogen transition modelling literature a customized methodology is developed for modelling hydrogen transitions with system dynamics modelling. Results are presented in terms of the investments required to purchase the hydrogen production capacity and the investments required to supply electricity to the hydrogen production systems. Production capacity investments are found to range between 1.59 and 2.58 billion New Zealand Dollars, and marginal electricity investments are found to range between 4.14 and 7.65 billion New Zealand Dollars. These investments represent scenarios in which 71% to 90% of the heavy-duty vehicle fleet are replaced with fuel cell trucks by 2050. The wide range of these findings reflects the large uncertainties in estimates of how hydrogen technologies will develop over the course of the next thirty years. Policy recommendations are drawn from these results, and a clear opportunity for future work is outlined. Most notably, the results from this study should be compared with research investigating the investments required to decarbonize the heavy-duty vehicle sectors with alternative technologies such as battery-electric trucks, biodiesel, and catenary systems. Such a comparison would ensure that the most cost effective decarbonization strategy is employed.
Highlights
The best-known among these crises must be that of climate change
There are various opportunities for hydrogen in New Zealand, this study focuses on long-haul goods delivery trucks with weights exceeding 30 tonnes
Problem identification—The modelling approach facilitates the process of discerning which aspects of the system are significant, and which are not; Ease of creation—The analyst can complete the modelling process within the allotted time; Non-linearity—The modelling approach accommodates non-linear responses and relationships between interconnected entities; Dynamic behaviour and interactions—The modelling approach appropriately represents interconnectivity and consumer behaviour; and Temporal consideration—The modelling approach provides the ability to model scenarios over a time period consisting of sufficient duration and resolution
Summary
Since the start of the 20th century, the world has seen unprecedented population growth and socio-economic development. These phenomena were made possible in large part by developments in technology that allowed people to exploit natural systems for economic benefit. Many benefits have resulted from these technologies, they have placed many essential natural systems under severe pressure [1]. This has resulted in what Edgar Morin calls the global “polycrisis”—a set of interlocked ecological and socio-economic crises [2]. The best-known among these crises must be that of climate change. Before the 18th century, the global mean annual concentration of CO2 remained steady at approximately 280 parts per million (ppm)
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