Introducing Autonomous Systems of War

Almost every larger city in Europe has ambitious smart city projects. This is particularly true for Hamburg, a Hanseatic city in the north of Germany. Hamburg is the smartest city in Germany according to a Federal Association for Information Technology. Although there are no megacities in the European Union (the largest city in the European Union is Berlin with 3.7 million inhabitants), the increasing urbanization is apparent and produces problems to be solved. At the same time rural depopulation creates conjugated problems.One category of these problems is mobility. Mobility can be regarded as the need to move persons and freight. In densely populated cities an increasing amount of transport users have to share a decreasing amount of space with conflicting needs. At the same time in rural areas, a dwindling supply of local public transport makes the mobility of the remaining residents more difficult. The same applies to parcel delivery or the supply of goods. Autonomous systems have great potential to create a sustainable and livable environment. The author has initiated a publicly funded project to investigate technologies of autonomous mobile systems which interact with a smart city. The test area intelligent urban mobility (Testfeld intelligente Quartiersmobilitat) at the campus of Hamburgs University of Applied Sciences is created to do research on connected and autonomous mobile systems like multipurpose robots and other mobility users like pedestrians with a smartphone. A particular focus is on neighborhood mobility. This means that distances of less than 3 kilometers usually have to be covered. The special type of needs in neighborhood mobility has two important aspects that affect development of autonomous mobile systems: It is slow mobility and the transport users are especially vulnerable. The acceptance of the residents of autonomous systems is equally important, as is the protection of privacy when collecting environmental data. They are expected to make decisions on their own in complex environments. The real world usually differs from a simulation or an experimental setup in a laboratory - a problem commonly referred to as Sim-2-Real gap. Active and non-destructive exploration is expected from an autonomous system to solve unexpected problems. Machine learning methods come into play which in turn have their own pitfalls. The author has built a specialized laboratory to investigate machine learning technology applied to autonomous systems. In this laboratory miniature autonomous vehicles are developed. The general idea of this experimental setup allows research on new methodologies for autonomous systems in a very small scale

A lot of autonomous power systems have been designed and operated with different power levels and with special requirements for climatic conditions, availability, operation/maintenance cost, fuel consumption, environmental impacts, etc. In this thesis, new methods of designing an autonomous power system are presented by application to the power supply of the shoreline electrode station for HVDC link. This station will be constructed on the small island of Stachtoroi for the new high voltage direct current (HVDC) link of Attica–Crete in Greece. The general guidelines of the International Council on Large Electric Systems (CIGRE) and of the International Electrotechnical Committee (IEC) for the power system of lighting and auxiliary loads for these HVDC stations are supplied from the medium voltage or the low voltage distribution network, whereas they do not take into consideration the criticality of this interconnection, which will practically be the unique power facility of Crete island. Therefore, the respective instructions for the process of designing the electrical supply of shoreline electrode station for HVDC link are reworded, the power needs of the station are evaluated in detail and the optimal design of an autonomous power generation system is carried out in terms of annual equivalent cost of construction, operation and maintenance through exhaustive testing and sensitivity analysis taking into account a number of technical parameters such as battery aging, discharge depth, solar irradiation variance during the day and year, cost of land occupation by the photovoltaic panels etc. Then, the photovoltaic unit is optimally configured for the required power from a set of photovoltaic panels of general use and inverters taking into account technical constraints, installation costs, lifetime, efficiencies, capital recovery rates, etc. and extend the corresponding results of the previous configuration appropriately. Following, the method of optimal design of an autonomous hybrid power generation system with photovoltaic panels, batteries and diesel generators that operate in the optimum operation point is developed, while in addition other parameters are adjusted, such as the charge-discharge range of the battery etc., applying it similar to the case of the autonomous system with photovoltaic panels and batteries. Finally, the proposed autonomous systems are compared with the classic conventional solutions (use of autonomous systems with diesel generators only, connection to the distribution power network) and it turns out that depending on the user requirements the creation of an autonomous system with either general purpose photovoltaic panels and batteries, or with photovoltaic panels for marine applications, batteries and diesel generators for particularly increased reliability requirements are superior to the classic solutions in terms of total annual equivalent construction - operation - maintenance costs for the respective deflated capital recovery rates.

The paper proposes measures to increase the stability of autonomous power systems. The considered autonomous power system could be connected to a regional system for power flow exchange or operate in the “island” mode. In the analysis of stability, it is assumed that there is a connection with the regional electric power system or the presence of several power plants in the autonomous system, combined for parallel operation. Autonomous systems are usually located in remote areas, far enough from regional power systems. A transmission line connecting an autonomous system to a “large” electrical system can have a rather low transmission capacity. This is due to both the desire to reduce the cost of the line and its functional purpose. Initially, it is not supposed to transfer significant amounts of energy through the line, its main function is to provide an autonomous system with some volumes of electricity in case of accidents. In addition, excess power of an autonomous system can be transmitted over the line or power can be received when a deficit occurs. The low bandwidth of a communication line with a “large” system leads to a deterioration in static and dynamic stability.

. The issues of optimization of the composition of energy sources and storage units in hybrid autonomous microgeneration systems are considered. The development of renewable energy, namely its decentralization and autonomy, is today the main issue in the energy sector. At the same time, it is a solution to the problems of an increasing level of electricity consumption and an increase in carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere during electricity production. The introduction of small-scale power generation, namely autonomous microgeneration systems, is an extraordinary task that needs an immediate substantiated solution. The use of one type of power supply in stand-alone systems is unreliable and inefficient. In the process of evolution of autonomous systems, so-called hybrid systems have appeared, using several power sources with different principles of generating electricity. The article presents a new approach to the classification of hybrid autonomous systems based on the degree of hybridization of its components. Justification of the optimal composition of a hybrid autonomous microgeneration system, namely the optimal composition of sources and storage of electricity, is closely related to the determination and optimization of its operating modes. An integrated approach to optimizing the composition and operating modes of an autonomous microgeneration system with renewable energy sources and active consumers of electricity is considered. The algorithm developed in the article for a comprehensive substantiation of the composition and operating modes of a hybrid autonomous system is based on the calculation and comparative analysis of the energy characteristics of the hybrid components of an autonomous system, taking into account the needs of power supply of a particular consumer and with reference to the climatic conditions of its location. On the basis of the analysis, the structure of the optimal hybrid autonomous microgeneration system is proposed, which has high energy performance due to the rational choice of the installed capacities of generating and accumulating sources. The system has a high level of reliability and environmental friendliness, which is an important aspect of the development of decentralized energy. For the proposed structure, an algorithm for controlling the operating modes of a system with renewable hybrid energy sources and a hybrid energy storage system has been developed. A mathematical model of the proposed hybrid autonomous microgeneration system is presented.

Modern manufacturing has to cope with dynamic and changing circumstances. Market fluctuations, the effects caused by unpredictable material shortages, highly variable product demand, and worker availability all require system robustness, flexibility, and resilience. To adapt to these new requirements, manufacturers should consider investigating, investing in, and implementing system autonomy. Autonomy is being adopted in multiple industrial contexts, but divergences arise when formalizing the concept of autonomous systems. To develop an implementation of autonomous manufacturing systems, it is essential to specify what autonomy means, how autonomous manufacturing systems are different from other autonomous systems, and how autonomous manufacturing systems are identified and achieved through the main features and enabling technologies. With a comprehensive literature review, this paper provides a definition of autonomy in the manufacturing context, infers the features of autonomy from different engineering domains, and presents a five-level model of autonomy — associated with maturity levels for the features — to ensure the complete identification and evaluation of autonomous manufacturing systems. The paper also presents the evaluation of a real autonomous system that serves as a use-case and a validation of the model.

The article is devoted to the analysis of compliance issues with the principle of distinction of international humanitarian law when using autonomous systems with artificial intelligence during armed conflicts. The study examines technical limitations of contemporary autonomous AI systems across three levels of autonomy (Human-in-the-Loop, Human-on-the-Loop, Human-out-of-the-Loop), including unmanned aerial vehicles, drone swarms, autonomous targeting systems, robotic combat platforms, and others. The research identifies the critical problem of the «semantic gap» between algorithmic object recognition and understanding their significance within the context of armed conflict, which precludes reliable identification of combatants in complex combat conditions. The experience of deploying such systems in contemporary armed conflicts has been analyzed, including cases of attacks on civilian objects. Legal lacunae in the regulation of autonomous AI systems deployment have been established, particularly the uncertainty of mechanisms for establishing accountability for violations of international humanitarian law. Proposals from the scientific community concerning a complete prohibition of autonomous AI systems have been critically assessed, and a more realistic approach has been substantiated. A three-component model for ensuring compliance with the principle of distinction when employing autonomous AI systems is proposed: establishing an International Agency for the Control of Autonomous Weapon Systems under the auspices of UN/UNODA with detailed structure and competencies; developing a three-tier certification procedure for systems with a requirement of 99% recognition accuracy; drafting a Convention on a temporary moratorium on fully autonomous AI systems. The necessity of maintaining meaningful human control over critical functions of such systems has been substantiated. Considering the probable absence of political will among leading states developing such systems, alternative mechanisms have been proposed: an EU Directive, international ISO standard, ICRC guidelines, and a voluntary code of conduct for manufacturers. The concept of establishing a special legal regime for peacekeeping unmanned aerial vehicles with a multi-level protection system through visual, electronic, and software identifiers has been developed.

This paper reviews the evidence regarding the autonomic heart rate regulation system function in relation to motor, activity and functional performance among patients post stroke. The target population included patients of any severity, post event. Databases searched for English language studies from 1990 to 2014 were PubMed, Cochrane Library, the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro), and the ClinicalTrials.gov. Search terms included ‘stroke’, ‘hemiplegic’, ‘cerebrovascular accident’ and `autonomic nervous system` or `heart rate variability` or `sympathetic` or `para sympathetic` and ‘ motor` or `activity` or `function’. Articles were identified and included if (1) participants were older than 18 years of age, (2) diagnosis of stroke was made (3) autonomic cardiac heart rate regulation system state and response to activity was present by HRV parameters (4) or an association between HRV parameter and motor or function performance was described. Results: Eight studies were identified as eligible for study criteria; among these, five assessed the possible predictive value of the HRV parameters on function performance two or more month later. Two studies assessed the response of heart rate autonomic control system assessed by HRV values to exercise. One study assessed the possible modification effect of heart autonomic system on the influence of aerobic intervention on walking and functional outcomes among patients at the sub-acute phase post stroke. The main results of the current review suggested a relationship between autonomic HR regulation system and motor and functional abilities among patients post stroke. In addition, it seems that cardiac autonomic system response to activity in these patients. However, the extent of the association and further the benefits of autonomic rehabilitation on motor or functional abilities remain to be evaluated.

The article is devoted to a systematic scientific and legal analysis of the international legal application of the latest military technologies, primarily artificial intelligence systems and autonomous weapon systems, in the context of the imperatives of international humanitarian law (IHL). It substantiates the need for conceptual accuracy in the use of modern terms, in particular the categories of “lethal autonomous weapon systems,” “human in the loop,” “human on the loop,” and “substantial human control,” which define the normative, technical-operational, and ethical-legal dimensions of the international debate on autonomous combat technologies. The evolutionary trends in regulatory approaches in the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, the positions of the International Committee of the Red Cross, and the expert findings of the Geneva Dialogue on LAWS, which form the structure of emerging norms and influence the development of international standards, are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the interconnection between the basic principles of IHL – distinction, proportionality, and military necessity – and the algorithmic characteristics of systems with autonomous functions, which create risks of unpredictability, misclassification of targets, and reduced effectiveness of human control. The significance of Article 36 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, which establishes the obligation of states to conduct legal reviews of new types of weapons, is revealed. The problem of “gaps in responsibility” arising from the complexity of attributing decisions made by autonomous systems and the distribution of responsibility between the commander, operator, developer, and state is outlined. Based on open sources, the use of semi-autonomous systems and unmanned aerial vehicles in the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been studied, and legal and ethical challenges have been identified, including the absence of a national mechanism equivalent to the requirements of Article 36 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions. A set of recommendations is proposed: the creation of an independent mechanism for legal expertise of new technologies, the development of internal «human-in-the-loop» standards for fire control systems, the integration of training courses on the legal aspects of AI and autonomous systems into the programs of military universities. The conclusion is made that preventive legal regulation is a necessary condition for preserving the humanitarian legitimacy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and an important direction for the state’s participation in the international discussion on the future of autonomous weapons.

Modern networks offer end-to-end connectivity however; the increasing amount of traditional offered services may still not fulfill the requirements of ever demanding distributed applications and must therefore be enriched by some form of increased intelligence in the network. This is where the promise of autonomous systems comes into play. Paul Horn of IBM Research first suggested the idea of autonomic computing on 15 October 2001 at the Agenda conference in Arizona. The need centers around the exponential growth of networking complexity. Autonomous systems are capable of performing activities by taking into account the local environment and adapting to it. No planning is required hence autonomous systems simply have to make the best of the resources at hand. Locality in this scenario is no longer geographical but rather the information and applications on the boundary of the autonomic communicating element which may be distributed over a wide area. The most common definition of an autonomic computing system is one which can control the functioning of computer applications and systems without input from the user, in the same way that the autonomic nervous system regulates body systems without conscious input from the individual. Thus, we attempt here to more clearly identify the need for autonomous systems, their architecture, the path of evolution from traditional network elements and the future of such systems.

In the world of business, proposal evaluation and vendor performance management processes involve business intelligence techniques to determine the best value at an instance in a dynamic environment engulfed with massive uncertainty. Business intelligence techniques are saving billions of dollars for business organizations. Cellular biological systems use signal transduction processes at the molecular level to render self sustaining autonomic systems. Smartest evaluation and management models work as control systems where feedback signals are used to correct and continuously improve the models in real time dynamic environment. Aerospace autonomic systems deal with scenarios as complex and dynamic as the proposal evaluation and vendor management processes as well as autonomic biological systems. Here, we show how business intelligence techniques and systems biology principles can be reoriented to address the challenge of dynamic verification and validation processes in autonomic systems with the help of system performance feedback and stochastic optimal control. Lessons learned from business intelligence systems and self sustaining autonomic biological systems provide insights to design and development of intelligent self sustaining optimal verification and validation processes for aerospace autonomic systems.

Autonomous Robotics Systems are inherently safety-critical and have complex safety issues to consider (for example, a safety failure can lead to a safety failure). Before they are deployed, these systems of have to show evidence that they adhere to a set of regulator-defined rules for safety and security. Formal methods provide robust approaches to proving a system obeys given rules, but formalising (usually natural language) rules can prove difficult. Regulations specifically for autonomous systems are still being developed, but the safety rules for a human operator are a good starting point when trying to show that an autonomous system is safe. For applications of autonomous systems like driverless cars and pilotless aircraft, there are clear rules for human operators, which have been formalised and used to prove that an autonomous system obeys some or all of these rules. However, in the space and nuclear sectors applications are more likely to differ, so a set of general safety principles has developed. This allows novel applications to be assessed for their safety, but are difficult to formalise. To improve this situation, we are collaborating with regulators and the community in the space and nuclear sectors to develop guidelines for autonomous and robotic systems that are amenable to robust (formal) verification. These activities also have the benefit of bridging the gaps in knowledge within both the space or nuclear communities and academia.

Autonomous maritime vessels have gained a considerable amount of attention in recent years due to their promise of reduced crew costs, increased safety and increased flexibility. This paper explores how the maritime industry can leverage the developments in autonomy and other systems to contribute to the continued drive towards autonomous maritime systems. First, several key technological areas associated with autonomous maritime systems are identified; including navigation and control systems, data transmission and electrical energy propulsion. These technical areas are then compared with other autonomous systems including autonomous aircraft, automobiles and spacecraft to find overlaps and similarities. A set of representative patents are determined for each technological area across each of the different autonomous systems and is then used to estimate a technological improvement rate for each technology-system pair. These technological improvement rates are implemented in a Monte-Carlo Markov Chain model to explore the effects of the timing of the adoption of autonomous systems in the maritime shipping industry. The model indicates a technological feasibility date of maritime autonomous systems beginning in 2028 when leveraging autonomous developments from other domains.

Autonomy is the core capability of future systems, and architecture design is one of the critical issues in system development and implementation. To discuss the architecture of autonomous systems in the future, this paper reviews the developing progress of architectures from automation systems to autonomous systems. Firstly, the autonomy and autonomous systems in different fields are summarized. The article classifies and summarizes the architecture of typical automated systems and infer three suggestions for building an autonomous system architecture: extensibility, evolvability, and collaborability. Accordingly, this paper builds an autonomous waterborne transportation system, and the architecture is composed of the object layer, cyberspace layer, cognition layer, and application layer, the proposed suggestions made in the construction of the architecture are reflected in the inter-relationships at all layers. Through the cooperation of four layers, the autonomous waterborne transportation system can autonomously complete the system functions, such as system control and transportation service. In the end, the characteristics of autonomous systems are concluded, from which the future primary research directions and the challenges of autonomous systems are provided.

Based on scientific understanding and empirical evidence of how humans understand and interact with robotic and autonomous systems, the author reviews the concerns that have been raised around the deployment of AI and robots in human society, and the potential for disruption and harm. He explains why transparency ought to be a fundamental design consideration for Human Computer Interaction (HCI) and artificial intelligent systems. Starting with a survey of global research in the field and what transparency means in the wider context of trust, control and ethics, the author then introduces a transparent robot control architecture, and the impact of transparency using real-time displays. He presents a case study of a muttering robot, and covers current and upcoming standards for transparency, as well as future perspectives for the design, manufacture and operation of autonomous robotic systems. Specifically, chapters cover transparency in the wider context of trust; a transparent robot control architecture, the impact of transparency using real-time displays, transparency using audio - the Muttering Robot, the effects of appearance on transparency, synthesis and further work, and several examples of Instinct reactive planner commands. This book provides key insights into transparency in robots and autonomous systems for industry, academic researchers and engineers working on intelligent autonomous system design, human robot interaction, AI, and machine ethics. It also offers points of interest for professionals developing governmental or organisational policies and standards for the design of intelligent autonomous and AI systems, and government and standard bodies working in the emerging applications of AI.

Autonomous systems will fundamentally alter the way wars are waged. In particular, autonomous weapon systems, capable of selecting and engaging targets without direct human operator involvement, represent a significant shift of humans away from the battlefield. As these new means and methods of warfare are introduced, many important targeting decisions will likely need to be made earlier and further away from the front lines. Fearful of these changes and coupled with other legal and moral concerns, groups opposed to autonomous weapons have formed and begun campaigning for a pre-emptive ban on their development and use. Nations intending to use these emerging technologies must grapple with how best to adjust their targeting processes and procedures to accommodate greater autonomy in weapon systems. This chapter examines these cutting-edge and controversial weapons with a particular emphasis on the legal impact on targeting during international armed conflicts. Initially, this chapter will explore the promising technological advances and operational benefits which indicate these weapon systems may become a reality in the not-so-distant future. The focus will then turn to the unique challenges the systems present to the law of armed conflict under both weapons law and targeting law principles. Next, the examination will shift to two key aspects of targeting most affected by autonomous systems: targeting doubt and subjectivity in targeting. The author ultimately concludes that autonomous weapon systems are unlikely to be deemed unlawful per se and that, while these targeting issues raise legitimate concerns, the use of autonomous weapons under many circumstances will be lawful.