Into the Cauldron of the Variant Soup: Insights into the Molecular Epidemiology and Transition to Endemicity of SARS-CoV-2 in Cyprus (November 2022–February 2024)

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, driven by the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been characterized by the virus’s ongoing evolution, leading to the appearance of more transmissible variants that have often triggered infection surges. In this study, we analyzed the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Cyprus, utilizing 1627 viral sequences from infected individuals between November 2022 and February 2024. Over this period, 251 distinct lineages and sublineages were identified, predominantly categorized into three groups: Omicron 5, XBB, and JN.1 (parental lineage BA.2.86), all of which harbor S protein mutations linked to enhanced transmissibility and immune escape. Despite the relatively low numbers of new infections during this period, and the lack of any major waves, unlike earlier phases of the pandemic, these lineages demonstrated varying periods of dominance, with Omicron 5 prevailing from November 2022 to February 2023, XBB variants leading from March to November 2023, and JN.1 generating a wavelet from December 2023 to February 2024. These findings suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Cyprus has reached endemicity, with new variants gradually replacing previously circulating variants irrespective of seasonal patterns. This study highlights the critical importance of ongoing surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 evolution in Cyprus and emphasizes the role of preventive measures in limiting virus transmission, providing valuable insights for safeguarding public health.