Abstract
ObjectivesIn 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to verify the intervention effects on the spread of an infectious disease by using these measures in a mathematical model. MethodsWe used the susceptible-infectious-recovery (SIR) model for a virtual population group connected by a special structured network. In the model, the infected state (I) was divided into I in which the infection is undetected and Ix in which the infection is detected. The probability of transitioning from an I state to Ix can be viewed as the rate at which an infected person is found. We assumed that only those connected to each other in the network can cause infection. In addition, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of isolation by temporarily removing the connection among these people. ResultsIn Scenario 1, only the infected are isolated; in Scenario 2, those who are connected to an infected person and are also found to be infected are isolated as well. In Scenario 3, everyone connected to an infected person are isolated. In Scenario 3, it was possible to effectively suppress the infectious disease even with a relatively slow rate of diagnosis and relatively high infection rate. ConclusionsDuring the epidemic, quick identification of the infected is helpful. In addition, it was possible to quantitatively show through a simulation evaluation that the management of infected individuals as well as those who are connected greatly helped to suppress the spread of infectious diseases.
Highlights
IntroductionThe World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020 for a new viral infection (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) first reported in China in November 2019 [1]
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020 for a new viral infection first reported in China in November 2019 [1]
It simulates a situation in which an infection is quickly identified through epidemiological investigations of those who have come into contact with an infected person
Summary
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020 for a new viral infection (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) first reported in China in November 2019 [1]. Since treatments and vaccines are not readily available for a new. 2020, Korean Society of Epidemiology infectious disease, especially during a global pandemic, using non-pharmaceutical interventions to minimize the peak of infection associated with the outbreak and enforcing a “mitigation strategy” so as not to overload the healthcare system is the only feasible response [2]. The most intuitive and effective method among non-pharmaceutical interventions is to “diagnosis and isolate infected people as soon as possible” [3,4]. This study aimed to determine how quick detection of COVID-19 and isolation of infected individuals can help prevent the transmission of infectious diseases
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