Abstract
Abstract : People's strategies on probabilistic inference word problems were investigated in an attempt to determine which of three theories explains their neglect of base rate information when estimating the probability of a hypothesis. These word problems present a base rate or prior probability (p(h)), some evidence (e) that typically conflicts with the prior expectation, and information on the reliability of the evidence, which is stated as p(e/h), the conditional probability of the evidence being seen if the hypothesis is true. The three theories are (a) subjects believe that the base rate is irrelevant; (b) they integrate base rate and evidence in a manner that underweighs the base rate; or (c) they misinterpret the reliability information p(e/h) as if it were p(h/e). Data using four distinct methods support the theory that subjects confuse the conditional probabilities. Keywords: Bayes theorem, Protocol analysis.
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