Interpretable machine learning models for displacement demand prediction in reinforced concrete buildings under pulse-like earthquakes

Abstract

This work proposes a novel procedure to guide the development of machine learning models for estimating the seismic demand in existing reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. The proposed approach is organized across two scales. A large-scale (nonparametric) machine learning model is first obtained by means of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) using all candidate building attributes and intensity measures. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values are utilized to facilitate its interpretation and to assist the rational selection of a small subset of intensity measures, which is finally employed to develop a (symbolic) reduced-scale machine learning model by means of Genetic Programming (GP). Simplified models of archetype buildings are adopted to develop machine learning techniques at both scales, in such a way to alleviate the simulation time for preparing large datasets. Refined models representative of actual buildings are instead considered for the unbiased final assessment.The proposed approach is applied to develop predictive machine learning models for the maximum inter-storey drift in bare frames, pilotis frames and frames with infills under pulse-like seismic ground motions. Consequently, the critical examination of the SHAP values revealed the most significant intensity measures and unfolded interesting patterns depending on the occupancy rate of the infills. Moreover, the final assessment demonstrates that this approach allows the management of a non-homogeneous building stock consisting of very diverse structural systems (i.e., spanning from existing buildings designed against gravity loads only to buildings that comply with outdated seismic codes) while providing satisfactory predictions of the seismic demand with minimum computational effort.