International Tensions and Arms Control Agreements

Abstract

This paper examines how the level of tensions in the relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union (measured by the Conflict and Peace Data Bank) influencesand is subsequently influenced by-the timing of the occurrence of arms control agreements (ACA). Using probit analysis, I establish that low-to-moderate levels of tensions have not hindered arms control initiatives at all, but serious tensions and disputes have had an adverse effect on the probability of occurrence of an arms control agreement. Moreover, while the lack of a hostile environment was a prerequisite for the implementation of measures of arms control, the arms control agreements did not result in any subsequent reductions in the level of tensions.