Interannual variability in trophic status of shallow lakes on the Boreal Plain: Is there a climate signal?

Abstract

We explored relations between climate and trophic status of shallow lakes (lake area > 5 ha, mean depth < 3.2 m) located on the subhumid western Boreal Plain of Canada. Correlation and regression analyses were used to assess the association between indicators of climate and satellite‐based estimates of trophic status (chlorophyll a (Chl a)). Chl a was derived using red band reflectance of Landsat satellite images for 76 lakes, which were then averaged for each year to produce a landscape median for summer (August) over a 20‐year period from 1984 and 2003. Our results showed that climate was related to interannual changes in trophic status. Average May temperature was positively correlated to Chl a, suggesting the importance of conditions in the early part of the growing season. Growing season effective precipitation (P – PET) was negatively correlated to Chl a such that wetter conditions seemed to lead to a dilution of Chl a. Very wet years resulted in a larger Chl a drop than one expected by a linear model, suggesting greater water contribution from the landscape. P – PET explained 64% of the variance in Chl a using a nonlinear regression tree. Our study offers clues as to how shallow lake systems may behave on the subhumid Boreal Plain as a function of future climate change.