Abstract
Covid-19 is a communicable virus that causes serious illness (Severe acutepiratory syndrome (SARS)) and middle east respiratory syndrome (MARS)). İts outbreak started in Wuhan, China on December 8, 2019. Fever, cough, tiredness are its signs and symptoms and appear between two to fourteen days after exposure. The severity of COVID-19 can include complications; pneumonia, heart problems, acute kidney injuries. Covid-19 careers should be identified in order to curb the spread of the virus within a population. In this regards, contact tracing is the current technique in use to identify and track the Covid-19 carriers. The aim is to curb the spread of the virus within the population. In order to achieve this goal effectively, appropriate technique is required in the identification of Covid-19 carriers and Modeling. It is known that Covid-19 carriers are hidden, clustered and very difficult to identify in the population. At this point, the Adaptive Cluster Sampling, which is a specialized sampling for identification of hidden and clustered event and Bayesian Model, comes to the practice. Therefore, in this study, Adaptive Cluster Sampling which is capable of tracking hidden and clustered events and Bayesian Model are integrated in contact tracing, and the application on how this technique is used is included
Highlights
Covid-19 has been termed pandemic due to the sharp increase in the number of Covid-19 carriers outside China and affecting several numbers of countries across the globe
MATERIALS AND METHODS Model for Estimating Number of Covid-19 Carriers For Covid-19 contact tracing team to have an idea of the estimated number of Covid-19 carriers in the population, this study fitted a Bayesian model with Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) embedded
The proposed methodology suggested Statisticians to be part of the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) team to make its effort effective to curb the spread of Covid-19 cases
Summary
Covid-19 has been termed pandemic due to the sharp increase in the number of Covid-19 carriers outside China and affecting several numbers of countries across the globe. Covid-19 was caused by a new strain of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first discovered in Wuhan, China, having not been seen earlier in humans (Channappanavar (2017), WHO (2020)), on 31st December 2019. The confirmed cases had increased to 17,755,732 and 677, 752 deaths across the world as at 31st July 2020, 10:48 GMT (Oruonye and Ahmed (2020)). It spreads through droplets generated from a carrier to the other. This virus infects people of all ages. It caused many symptoms, such as illness, difficulty in breathing and even deaths (Yin, 2018)
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