Abstract
A nexus approach can support the transition to sustainability by addressing trade-offs and pursuing synergies to improve water, energy, and food security. In this paper, a participatory system dynamics model was developed to identify and assess the key interlinkages between water, food, and energy in Andalusia (Spain). A panel of relevant stakeholders contributed to all stages of the model’s development. Further, by calibrating the model to CAPRI-Water projections until 2050, the evolution of the system under a plausible climate scenario, as well as effects of water prices changes, was evaluated. The results revealed a close link between water cost, irrigation water use, energy consumption, and the economic development of agriculture in the region. Large variability was observed in the effects of water pricing policies across crops. This paper concludes that a participatory system dynamics model can help in understanding the nexus synergies and can support the design of more coherent sustainability strategies in the region.
Highlights
Water–energy–food (WEF) dynamics shape a complex system with multi-directional interrelations; integrated approaches are needed to identify the synergies and trade-offs between the various components and manage the nexus [1,2,3]
The objective of this study is twofold: (1) to quantify the interlinkages between water, food, energy, land, and climate; and (2) to analyse how agricultural and environmental policies can be better coordinated to deal with major pressures on land, water, and energy in future scenarios by
To identify nexus-coherent policies, we developed a System dynamics modelling (SDM) of the WEF nexus in close collaboration with a panel of stakeholders who contributed to the design of the SDM at each stage of development
Summary
Water–energy–food (WEF) dynamics shape a complex system with multi-directional interrelations; integrated approaches are needed to identify the synergies and trade-offs between the various components and manage the nexus [1,2,3]. There is increasing evidence that applying a nexus approach is essential to analyse WEF interlinkages and to identify coherent policies that can promote the transition to sustainability [4,5,6,7]. Systemic approaches can help in understanding these interrelations, because they facilitate the analysis of the whole system and integrated sub-systems simultaneously. The literature applying this methodology to analyse the nexus often addresses qualitative analysis through conceptual interlinkages (Muiznuece et al [8]; Cai et al [9]). Other studies apply complexity-based approaches, such as modelling, to obtain quantitative results (Howells et al [12]; Daher and Mohtar [13])
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