Integrating phytoplankton phenology, traits, and model‐data fusion to advance bloom prediction

Phytoplankton communities and production in Arctic fjords undergo strong seasonal variations. Phytoplankton blooms are periods with high primary production, leading to elevated algal biomass fueling higher trophic levels. Blooms are typically driven bottom-up by light and nutrient availability but may also be top-down controlled by grazing. While phytoplankton spring blooms are common across all Arctic systems, summer and autumn blooms and their drivers are less predictable. Here we compare the long-term (≥4 years) bloom phenology and protist community composition in three Arctic fjords: Nuup Kangerlua in western Greenland, Ramfjorden in northern Norway, and Adventfjorden in western Svalbard. While Nuup Kangerlua is impacted by tidewater glaciers, Ramfjorden and Adventfjorden are impacted by river-runoff. We discuss and contrast the presence and predictability of spring, summer, and autumn blooms in these fjords and the main physical, chemical, and biological drivers. Spring blooms occurred in all three fjords in April/May as soon as sufficient sunlight was available and typically terminated when nutrients were depleted. Chain-forming diatoms together with the haptophyte Phaeocystis pouchetii were key spring bloom taxa in all three fjords. Summer blooms were found in Nuup Kangerlua and Ramfjorden but were not common in Adventfjorden. In Nuup Kangerlua nutrient supply via subglacial upwelling was the key driver of a diatom-dominated summer bloom. This summer bloom extended far into autumn with strong winds resupplying nutrients to the surface later in the season. In Ramfjorden runoff from a vegetated catchment provided organic nutrients for a flagellate-dominated summer bloom in 2019. A late autumn bloom dominated by Skeletonema spp. and other chain-forming diatoms was present after nutrients were resupplied by wind mixing. In Adventfjorden, we observed only minor summer blooms in 2 of the 8 years, while autumn blooms were never observed. With global warming, we suggest that summer blooms will be negatively impacted in fjords where tidewater glaciers retreat and become land terminating. In fjords with rich vegetated catchments, harmful algal blooms may occur more frequently as summers and autumns become warmer and wetter. However, for fjords in high-Arctic latitudes (>78 N), the day length will continue to restrict the potential for autumn blooms.

Globally, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an increasing problem. In the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella are annually recurrent phenomena. As this region is one of the most rapidly warming areas of the global ocean, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the initiation of local A. catenella blooms, their interannual variability and the implications of future climate change is critical to local monitoring strategies and marine resources management. A 27-year (1988–2014) time series of weekly A. catenella cell counts from the Bay of Fundy and concurrent satellite-measured sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge from the St. John River and wind-driven turbulence are compared to assess their relationship to variability in bloom phenology metrics. The mean thermal habitat associated with early detection of A. catenella is 6.5 ± 1.6°C, whereas that of bloom initiation averages 9.2 ± 1.5°C. Both thermal habitats for A. catenella are trending earlier over the study period. Bloom initiations that precede the arrival of the thermal habitat mean (occur in colder water) are associated with higher spring freshwater discharge and are generally weaker blooms. Increased spring freshwater discharge is also associated with earlier bloom initiation and earlier maximum concentration dates. No significant relationship was observed with the strength of wind-driven mixing. Removal of the mean thermal seasonal cycle shows that surface temperature anomalies have a strong negative relationship to the bloom phenology metrics and arrival of thermal habitat: warmer years are linked to earlier arrival of thermal habitats (∼12 days °C–1) and earlier detection and bloom initiation dates (∼33 days °C–1). Using these relationships and present trends in Bay of Fundy surface temperature warming over the period 1982–2019, we project the arrival dates of bloom thermal habitat and bloom phenology metrics out to the middle of this century. Based on current rates of sea surface temperature change, bloom phenology metrics (e.g., bloom initiation, early detection), can be expected to shift 1–2 months earlier in the season by mid-century. Such changes in the phenology of A. catenella blooms will need to be incorporated into both monitoring strategies and forecasting models for the region.

A regional model to predict the occurrence of natural events: Application to phytoplankton blooms in continental waterbodies

Knowing the magnitude and timing of pelagic primary production is important for ecosystem and carbon sequestration studies, in addition to providing basic understanding of phytoplankton functioning. In this study we use data from an ecosystem cruise to Kong Håkon VII Hav, in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, in March 2019 and more than two decades of satellite-derived ocean color to study phytoplankton bloom phenology. During the cruise we observed phytoplankton blooms in different bloom phases. By correlating bloom phenology indices (i.e., bloom initiation and end) based on satellite remote sensing to the timing of changes in environmental conditions (i.e., sea ice, light, and mixed layer depth) we studied the environmental factors that seemingly drive phytoplankton blooms in the area. Our results show that blooms mainly take place in January and February, consistent with previous studies that include the area. Sea ice retreat controls the bloom initiation in particular along the coast and the western part of the study area, whereas bloom end is not primarily connected to sea ice advance. Light availability in general is not appearing to control the bloom termination, neither is nutrient availability based on the autumn cruise where we observed non-depleted macronutrient reservoirs in the surface. Instead, we surmise that zooplankton grazing plays a potentially large role to end the bloom, and thus controls its duration. The spatial correlation of the highest bloom magnitude with marked topographic features indicate that the interaction of ocean currents with sea floor topography enhances primary productivity in this area, probably by natural fertilization. Based on the bloom timing and magnitude patterns, we identified five different bloom regimes in the area. A more detailed understanding of the region will help to highlight areas with the highest relevance for the carbon cycle, the marine ecosystem and spatial management. With this gained understanding of bloom phenology, it will also be possible to study potential shifts in bloom timing and associated trophic mismatch caused by environmental changes.

Phytoplankton blooms are an important, widespread phenomenon in open oceans, coastal waters and freshwaters, supporting food webs and essential ecosystem services. Blooms are even more important in exploited coastal waters for maintaining high resource production. However, the environmental factors driving blooms in shallow productive coastal waters are still unclear, making it difficult to assess how environmental fluctuations influence bloom phenology and productivity. To gain insights into bloom phenology, Chl a fluorescence and meteorological and hydrological parameters were monitored at high-frequency (15 min) and nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton abundance and diversity, were monitored weekly in a typical Mediterranean shallow coastal system (Thau Lagoon). This study was carried out from winter to late spring in two successive years with different climatic conditions: 2014/2015 was typical, but the winter of 2015/2016 was the warmest on record. Rising water temperature was the main driver of phytoplankton blooms. However, blooms were sometimes correlated with winds and sometimes correlated with salinity, suggesting nutrients were supplied by water transport via winds, saltier seawater intake, rain and water flow events. This finding indicates the joint role of these factors in determining the success of phytoplankton blooms. Furthermore, interannual variability showed that winter water temperature was higher in 2016 than in 2015, resulting in lower phytoplankton biomass accumulation in the following spring. Moreover, the phytoplankton abundances and diversity also changed: cyanobacteria (< 1 μm), picoeukaryotes (< 1 μm) and nanoeukaryotes (3–6 μm) increased to the detriment of larger phytoplankton such as diatoms. Water temperature is a key factor affecting phytoplankton bloom dynamics in shallow productive coastal waters and could become crucial with future global warming by modifying bloom phenology and changing phytoplankton community structure, in turn affecting the entire food web and ecosystem services.

Cyanobacteria blooms are a worldwide concern for water bodies and may be promoted by eutrophication and climate change. The prediction of cyanobacterial blooms and identification of the main triggering factors are of paramount importance for water management. In this study, we analyzed a comprehensive dataset including ten-years measurements collected at Lake Varese, an eutrophic lake in Northern Italy. Microscopic analysis of the water samples was performed to characterize the community distribution and dynamics along the years. We observed that cyanobacteria represented a significant fraction of the phytoplankton community, up to 60% as biovolume, and a shift in the phytoplankton community distribution towards cyanobacteria dominance onwards 2010 was detected. The relationships between cyanobacteria biovolume, nutrients, and environmental parameters were investigated through simple and multiple linear regressions. We found that 14-days average air temperature together with total phosphorus may only partly explain the cyanobacteria biovolume variance at Lake Varese. However, weather forecasts can be used to predict an algal outbreak two weeks in advance and, eventually, to adopt management actions. The prediction of cyanobacteria algal blooms remains challenging and more frequent samplings, combined with the microscopy analysis and the metagenomics technique, would allow a more conclusive analysis.

Phytoplankton communities of the west coast of Florida – multiyear and seasonal responses to nutrient enrichment

Remote sensing provides our only window into the phytoplankton community on synoptic scales, permitting the construction of spatially distributed time series of biomass indexed as chlorophyll concentration. Data from the SeaWiFS mission have accumulated to the point where they meet the criterion of a 10-year series. The seasonal phytoplankton cycle is the dominant mode of temporal variability. The time series can be used to construct a variety of ecological indicators of the pelagic system useful in ecosystem-based management. These are reviewed and examples of their implementation are presented. Phenology of phytoplankton blooms is given particular attention. Interannual variation in some of the indicators is strong, presumably a response to variation in large-scale forcing. Examination of the results in the context of a simple phytoplankton-nutrient model enhances the interpretation. Remote sensing imagery also lends itself to the retrieval of information on community structure, in addition to biomass. More information will be recovered from satellite imagery if the remote-sensing program is coupled closely to a ship program on which appropriate bio-optical observations are made. The data series can be distilled to yield concise descriptions of the unfolding of ecosystem characteristics through time.

In a seasonal environment, the timing of reproduction is usually scheduled to maximize the survival of offspring. Within deep water bodies, the phytoplankton spring bloom provides a short time window of high food quantity and quality for herbivores. The onset of algal bloom development, however, varies strongly from year to year due to interannual variability in meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the onset is predicted to change with global warming. Here, we use a long‐term dataset to study (a) how a cyclopoid copepod, Cyclops vicinus, is dealing with the large variability in phytoplankton bloom phenology, and (b) if bloom phenology has an influence on offspring numbers. C. vicinus performed a two‐phase dormancy, that is, the actual diapause of fourth copepodid stages at the lake bottom is followed by a delay in maturation, that is, a quiescence, within the fifth copepodid stage until the start of the spring bloom. This strategy seems to guarantee a high temporal match of the food requirements for successful offspring development, especially through the highly vulnerable naupliar stages, with the phytoplankton spring bloom. However, despite this match with food availability in all study years, offspring numbers, that is, offspring survival rates were higher in years with an early start of the phytoplankton bloom. In addition, the phenology of copepod development suggested that also within study years, early offspring seems to have lower mortality rates than late produced offspring. We suggest that this is due to a longer predator‐free time period and/or reduced time stress for development. Hence, within the present climate variability, the copepod benefited from warmer spring temperatures resulting in an earlier phytoplankton spring bloom. Time will show if the copepod's strategy is flexible enough to cope with future warming.

Marine ecosystems are experiencing uneven changes in response to the synergistic effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Phytoplankton primary productivity, driven by photosynthesis, fuels marine ecosystems, providing the source material for trophic transfer and carbon export to the ocean interior. This study provides a large-scale assessment of net primary production (NPP) and its temporal variability across different latitudinal bands (40° N–45°S) in the Asia-Pacific region over 25 years (1998 –2022), with emphasis on bloom phenology. NPP is estimated through multi-model inter-fusion using satellite-based observations, which offers practical means for broad regional assessments given the limitations of direct measurement techniques. Our analysis reveals a decline in NPP of −3.2% per decade (equivalent to −15.31 mg C m−2 day−1 per decade, P &lt; 0.01). NPP decreases with increasing latitude in both hemispheres, reaching minimum values at 20°–25° latitude that are 1.75-fold lower than equatorial values. The observed NPP trends are coupled with changes in phytoplankton phenology. Using three phenological threshold methods, phytoplankton bloom initiation has advanced by approximately −1.1 ± 10.4 days per decade, while termination occurred about −3.3 ± 10.5 days earlier per decade, resulting in shortened bloom durations of around −2.8 ±15.3 days per decade. The seasonal cycle demonstrated increased reproducibility over these temporal shifts, reflecting more stable annual variations. These changes in productivity and phenology patterns reflect the influence of climate change and anthropogenic pressures across the Asia-Pacific waters, with implications for ecosystem energy flow, carbon sequestration processes, and species composition.

Rainfall-induced nutrient fluctuations in surface water affect phytoplankton communities and cause algal blooms. To examine this influence in the Zhoucun Reservoir, China, field surveys were performed weekly or biweekly from February 2013 (a wet year) to December 2014 (a dry year). Physical conditions, nutrient levels, and phytoplankton functional groups were investigated during monitoring. Nutrient levels increased in the summer of 2013 (TN: 0.85–2.66 mg/L; TP: 0.037–0.138 mg/L), while nitrogen deficiency occurred in the summer of 2014 (TN: 0.38–0.73 mg/L, TP: 0.044–0.079 mg/L). A cyanobacteria bloom that appeared in the summer of 2013 had the dominant phytoplankton functional groups M and Tc. In the summer of 2014, algal cell density and biomass were much lower than those during the corresponding period in 2013, and the co-dominant phytoplankton groups were F, L0, Tc, and S2. Non-N-fixing cyanobacteria were not abundant in summer 2013 probably because of the low ratio of NO3− to NH4+, although nitrogen was also deficient. In contrast to these summer trends, little difference was noted between phytoplankton dynamics and community structure in the two winters and two springs, regardless of nutrient conditions. Redundancy analysis indicated that rainfall-induced nitrogen fluctuations were the primary factor causing phytoplankton dynamics to differ between the wet and dry year. The effects of water temperature, stratification, and light on the phytoplankton community were independent of nutrient fluctuations. This study shows that rainfall fluctuations change summer nutrient conditions and that cyanobacteria blooms are likely to occur in wet years in the Zhoucun Reservoir.

Phytoplankton responses under a joint upwelling event and an algal bloom scenario in the southeast Gulf of Mexico

Aim: To explore the spatio-temporal variation of phytoplankton diversity and community structure, in response to associated environmental variables in Matla estuary, Sundarbans, India. Methodology: Monthly sampling was carried out from August 2022 to July 2023 at three locations within the estuary. Plankton was identified and its dynamics were studied in relation to the environment variables. Results: A total of 38 genera of phytoplankton, belonging to 8 classes, were identified. Spatial diversity was high in the upper reaches of the estuary, while temporal diversity peaked during the monsoon season. The majority of the abundance (96%) was contributed by four classes: Coscinodiscophyceae (35%), Mediophyceae (27%), Bacillariophyceae (25%) and Dinophyceae (9%). Bacillariophyceae exhibited higher species richness, while Coscinodiscophyceae dominated in terms of density. Cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling revealed four separate groups with varying spatio-temporal attributes. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) post-hoc tests highlighted significant variations in environmental parameters across seasons. Various phytoplankton groups were positively correlated with the physio-chemical parameters such as temperature, alkalinity, free CO2, NO3, NO2, silicate, temperature, orthophosphate and chlorophyll-a. Biota-environment stepwise analysis (BIO-ENV) underscored the importance of air temperature and free CO2 (ρ= 0.4929) as key factors shaping phytoplankton distribution and community structure. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) further showed the significant influence of parameters such as temperature, silicate, nitrite and orthophosphate on the phytoplankton community. Interpretation: Finding of this study enriches our comprehension of estuarine ecosystem dynamics, and this information may serve as a baseline study and thereby aid in framing management measures for long-term conservation and management of both biotic and abiotic components within estuaries. Key words: Environmental variables, Estuary, Mangrove, Phytoplankton, Sundarbans

Assessing the toxic effects of magnetic particles used for lake restoration on phytoplankton: A community-based approach

Short-term Lake Erie algal bloom prediction by classification and regression models