Integrating land use simulation and carbon assessment for sustainable urban planning in Fuzhou metropolitan area using PLUS and InVEST models

Considering Daqing City as the research area, the impact of land cover change on carbon storage in the future was discussed, and the hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were identified. The future land use simulation （FLUS） model was used to simulate the land cover pattern of a natural succession scenario, ecological protection scenario, urban development scenario, and comprehensive development scenario in 2030, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST） model was combined to estimate carbon storage in 2010, 2020, and 2030. Finally, the hot spot analysis tool was used to identify the cold hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity. The results showed the following： ① From 2010 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, water, and artificial surface increased, whereas the area of other land cover types decreased, and the total carbon storage decreased by 8.6×105 t. ② The land cover change of the natural succession scenario and urban development scenario in 2030 was similar to that of 2010-2020, with carbon storage decreasing by 1.16×106 t and 1.20×106 t, respectively. The carbon storage of the comprehensive development scenario decreased by 1.00×106 t compared with that in 2020, and carbon storage of the ecological protection scenario was 5.677 7×108 t, which increased by 2.53×106 t compared with that in 2020. ③ The conversion of grassland and wetland to cultivated land was the main cause of carbon storage loss, and the main contributor of carbon storage in the ecological protection scenarios was wetland. ④ The hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were mainly located in the wetland area, and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the central part of Daqing City. The carbon sequestration capacity of cultivated land was not significant. According to the research results, to realize the urban transformation of Daqing City, we should insist on returning farmland to forest and grass, increase the intensity of returning moisture, improve the utilization rate of urban land, and increase green infrastructure in the main urban area.

Impact of land use change on carbon storage based on the PLUS–InVEST model: A case study in the urban belt along the Yellow River, China

The most extensive carbon reservoir system on Earth is found in the vegetation and soil in terrestrial ecosystems, which are essential to preserving the stability of ecosystems. Land use/cover change (LUCC) patterns in terrestrial ecosystems significantly impact carbon storage (CS). Therefore, it is imperative to investigate the relationship between LUCC and CS to coordinate regional ecological conservation and industrial development. In this study, the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes in land use and CS in the Yanqi Basin from 2000 to 2020 were revealed using the PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation) model and the CS module of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model. This study also predicted the spatial and temporal evolution of CS and the response mechanism of the Yanqi Basin from four scenarios—natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and urban development scenario (UDS) for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050. This study shows the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the Yanqi Basin witnessed an expansion in cropland and construction land, the order of the land use dynamic degree which is as follows: construction land > cropland > woodland > unused land > water > grassland. At the same time, the CS exhibited a trend of growth that was followed by a decline, a cumulative decrease of 3.61 Tg. (2) Between 2020 and 2050, woodland, grassland, and unused land decreased under the NDS and UDS. Meanwhile, grassland and woodland showed an expanding trend, and there was a decrease in cropland and construction land under the EPS; the CPS projected an increase in cropland to 3258.06 km2 by 2050. (3) CS under the UDS is always the lowest, and CS under the EPS is the highest; moreover, by 2050, CS under the EPS is projected to increase by 1.18 Tg compared with that under the UDS. The spatial distribution of CS shows a high value in the western part of the region and a low value in the eastern part of the region, which is more in line with the historical spatial distribution. (4) The development of land by human activities is one of the major factors leading to the change of CS. The direct cause of the decrease in CS is the transformation of large areas of cropland and woodland into construction land. Therefore, woodlands must be protected to improve CS and prevent ecological degradation. At the same time, future land use planning in the Yanqi Basin needs to limit the conversion rate of various types of land, control the construction land, optimize the urban pattern, improve the regional CS level, adhere to the concept of striving to achieve carbon neutrality, and realize the sustainable development of the region to provide scientific suggestions for carrying out macro-decision making regarding land use planning in arid areas.

Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050

Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems varies with land use changes, and exploring the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in regional terrestrial ecosystems is important for maintaining regional carbon balance. Data on Dalian City’s land use types from 2000 to 2020 are used in this research, to evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon storage in Dalian. Furthermore, with the scenarios of urban development, natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2030, this study combines the PLUS and InVEST models to emulate the dynamic adjustment at land-use types and the spatio-temporal evolution regarding carbon storage in Dalian City. The investigation shows that: 1) The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystem in Dalian has been altered as a consequence of changes in land use, and now it shows a general decline during 2000–2020, with reductions amounting to 5.39 × 106 t. 2) From 2000 through 2020, Dalian’s land resources that are utilized for farming, forestry, and grassland decreased to different degrees. The total construction land area increased by 796.47 km2, or 6.38 %, whereas there has been no substantial improvement in water or unused land. 3) The carbon storage reduction in 2030 in comparison to 2020 for the natural development, cultivated land protection, and urban development scenarios, among which the urban development scenario was the largest, was 1.36 × 106t.It suggests that the rapid rate of urbanization and expansion of constructionlandis an important cause of the decline in carbon storage. 4) The cultivated land protection scenario (CPS) yields the smallest reduction of 6.50 × 105t. The structure of Dalian’s land use type is optimum under the ecological protection scenario (EPS), as seen by the 3.90 × 105t increase in carbon storage under this scenario. It speeds up the rate of recovery of carbon storage and improves the function of carbon sinks in urban terrestrial ecosystems. Hoping to provide the reference to decision makers for ecosystem carbon storage optimization from the view of land use, which is vital for making future land use policies and realizing the “dual carbon” strategic goal.

Land use change is an important factor affecting the carbon cycle and carbon reserves， and multiple scenario simulation of the impact of regional land use change on carbon reserves can provide decision support for formulating scientific land use policies. Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone as an example， based on the evolution characteristics of land use from 1990 to 2020， the impact of land use change on carbon reserves during the 30 years was estimated using the InVEST model， and the coupling PLUS model was used to predict land use change and its impact on carbon reserves in 2030 under the natural development， urban development， and ecological protection scenarios. The study produced several interesting results： ① During 1990-2020， the land use structure in the research area was mainly cultivated land and forest land， which accounted for more than 86% of the area； cultivated land and grassland decreased； construction land， water area， forest land， and unused land increased； and land use transfer was mainly manifested in the mutual transformation between cultivated land and forest land and the transfer of cultivated land for construction land. ② From 1990 to 2020， the carbon reserves showed a distribution pattern of "middle low， surroundings high" and a change trend of "decrease-increase-decrease." The total accumulation decreased by 9.29×106 t， which was mainly attributable to the transfer of forest land to other land. The carbon reserves of cultivated land and forest land， which are the main sources of carbon reserves in the research area， accounted for about 90% of the total. ③ From 2020 to 2030， the areas of cultivated land， water area， and unused land all declined， the area of grassland increased， forest land increased under only the ecological protection scenario， and construction land expanded significantly under the urban development scenario. ④ Under the scenarios of natural development and urban development， carbon reserves decreased significantly， while under the scenario of ecological protection， carbon reserves increased significantly due to lower transfer probability of cultivated land， grassland， and forest land to construction land.

Land use change is one of the main factors driving changes in terrestrial carbon storage, which comprises the storage of vegetation carbon and soil carbon. Selecting the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) as the study area, land use and carbon storage from 2010 to 2030 were analyzed by combining the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The main types of land use in CCUA are farmland and forest. The conversion of farmland to built-up land was the most important form of land use transfer between 2010 and 2020. Each type of land use shows the smallest change under the ecological protection scenario, and the degree of the comprehensive land use dynamic is only 0.19%. Under the natural development scenario, the areas of built-up land, wetland, and forest land will increase in 2030. Under the urban development scenario, the built-up land area will increase by 751.24 km2, an increase in more than 10.08%, but farmland, forest, and grassland will decrease. The spatial pattern of carbon storage is “high in the east and west, low in the middle”; farmland accounts for the largest proportion of carbon storage at over 60% of the total. Carbon storage decreased by 29.45 × 106 Mg from 2010 to 2020. Grassland showed the most significant decrease in carbon storage, with the proportion decreasing from 7.49% in 2010 to 6.09% in 2020. In 2030, the total carbon storage will reach 1844.68 × 106 Mg under the ecological protection scenario, slightly higher than that in 2020, while it will show a downward trend under the natural development and urban development scenarios.

Exploring and predicting the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving forces of carbon storage in typical mountain forest ecosystems under land-use changes is crucial for curbing the effects of climate change and fostering sustainable, eco-friendly growth. The existing literature provides important references for our related studies but further expansion and improvements are needed in some aspects. This study first proposed an integrated framework comprising gray multi-objective optimization (GMOP), Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), the Patch-level Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS), and optimal parameter-based geographical detector (OPGD) models to further expand and improve on existing research. Then, the integrated model was used to analyze the spatial–temporal variation in land-use pattern and carbon storage at the county scale in China’s Daiyun Mountain’s Rim under four scenarios in 2032, and analyze the driving force of spatial differentiation of carbon storage. The results indicated that (1) land-use change primarily involves the mutual transfer among forest, cultivated, and construction land, with approximately 7.2% of the land-use type area undergoing a transition; (2) in 2032, the natural development scenario projects a significant reduction in forest land and an expansion of cultivated, shrub, and construction lands. Conversely, the economic priority, ecological priority, and economic–ecological coordinated scenarios all anticipate a decline in cultivated land area; (3) in 2032, the natural development scenario will see a 2.8 Tg drop in carbon stock compared to 2022. In contrast, the economic priority, ecological priority, and economic–ecological coordinated scenarios are expected to increase carbon storage by 0.29 Tg, 2.62 Tg, and 1.65 Tg, respectively; (4) the spatial differentiation of carbon storage is jointly influenced by various factors, with the annual mean temperature, night light index, elevation, slope, and population density being the key influencing factors. In addition, the influence of natural factors on carbon storage is diminishing, whereas the impact of socioeconomic factors is on the rise. This study deepened, to a certain extent, the research on spatiotemporal dynamics simulation of carbon storage and its driving mechanisms under land-use changes in mountainous forest ecosystems. The results can serve to provide scientific support for carbon balance management and climate adaptation strategies at the county scale while also offering case studies that can inform similar regions around the world. However, several limitations remain, as follows: the singularity of carbon density data, and the research scope being confined to small-scale mountainous forest ecosystems. Future studies could consider collecting continuous annual soil carbon density data and employing land-use simulation models (such as PLUS or CLUMondo) appropriate to the study area’s dimensions.

This study aimed to investigate the impact of land use changes on the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage from the perspective of territorial spatial planning， using Dali County as a case study. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land use types and carbon storage were analyzed from 1990 to 2020 using the InVEST and PLUS models. Then， the changes of the land use and carbon storage in 2030 were predicted under three scenarios： natural development， ecological protection， and economic development. The results are as follows： ①The land use type of Dali County is mainly cultivated land， accounting for more than 70% of the total area， followed by forest land， grassland， water bodies， construction land， and unused land. From 1990 to 2020， the area of grassland and unused land decreases， while the area of cultivated land， forest land， water bodies， and construction land increase. Notably， the area of construction land experiences the most rapid increase of 78.72%. ② Spatially， the regions with a significant increase in carbon storage are located mainly in the southern sandy areas of Dali County， the regions with a decrease in carbon storage are scattered， and the carbon storage in the Yellow River beach area has a notable general downward trend. Temporally， the carbon storage in Dali County shows an increasing trend from 1990 to 2000. However， with the acceleration of urbanization and the expansion of construction land area during 2000 to 2020， the loss rate of carbon storage increases， and the loss amount reaches 50.78×106 t. ③ Obvious differences of carbon storage in 2030 emerge among the different scenarios. In the ecological protection scenario， carbon storage increases because the protection of forest and grass resources and strict constraints on the expansion of construction land are effectively ensured. In the natural development scenario， less carbon is lost. In the economic development scenario， the significant conversion of high-density carbon agricultural land to low-density carbon construction land leads to the greatest carbon loss. In light of these results， future land use planning in Dali County should focus on enhancing the control and protection of ecological nodes， strictly regulating the addition of new construction land， optimizing land use patterns， improving ecosystem service functions， increasing carbon sequestration efficiency， and promoting coordinated development between the county's economy and environment.

Multi-scenario simulation of land use/cover change and carbon storage assessment in Hainan coastal zone from perspective of free trade port construction

The change of land use type seriously affects the spatial distribution pattern of regional carbon stocks. Exploring the land use status under future scenarios can provide an important reference for the spatial optimization of land use structure, carbon budget balance, and sustainable development in inland arid areas. Based on the land use types of the Haixi Prefecture in 2000, 2010, and 2020, the characteristics of land use change in the study area over 20 years were analyzed. The PLUS-InVEST model combined with 13 driving factors was used to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of land use and carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection, and urban development scenarios in 2030. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land types in the Haixi Prefecture were grassland and unused land； the area of grassland continued to decrease, mainly transferred to unused and construction land, whereas the area of other land types showed an increasing trend. ② Compared with that in 2020, under the natural development scenario in 2030, the area of forest land will decrease by 204.86 km2, indicating a decrease of 24.18%, and the area of grassland will decrease by 4 167.02 km2. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of forest land and grassland will increase by 55.47 km2 and 929.41 km2, respectively. Under the urban development scenario, the construction land area will be 672.84 km2, indicating an increase of 17.34%. ③ From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon storage decreased by 162.04×106 t, showing a continuous downward trend. High carbon storage values were distributed in the eastern and southern parts of the study area, while low carbon storage values were mainly distributed in the Qaidam Basin and its periphery. ④ In 2030, carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario will increase by 84.78×106 t and 86.16×106 t compared with that under the natural and urban development scenarios, respectively, indicating that ecological protection can effectively increase carbon storage in the study area. These findings provide data support for rational land use planning and coordinated regional development in the Haixi Prefecture.

Response and multi-scenario prediction of carbon storage to land use/cover change in the main urban area of Chongqing, China

Modifications in land use patterns exert profound influences on the configuration, arrangement, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, thereby inducing fluctuations in carbon sequestration. Consequently, precise ecological decision-making and an in-depth exploration of the interplay between land use alterations and carbon storage dynamics assume paramount importance in the pursuit of optimal regional land use configurations. In this investigation, we employed the InVEST model to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in land utilization and carbon storage in Hunan Province, based on comprehensive land use data spanning the period from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the PLUS model was utilized to project the future spatial distribution of carbon storage in Hunan Province until 2040, encompassing diverse development scenarios. The findings of our study are as follows: (1) Land use changes instantaneously impact carbon storage within the study area. From 2000 to 2020, urban construction land witnessed an expansion of 3542 km2, which accounted for an increase from 1.13% to 2.78% of the total land area. Consequently, there was a decline in arable land, woodlands, and grasslands, resulting in a reduction of 3430.25 tons of carbon storage in Hunan Province. (2) The ecological protection scenario is projected to yield the most substantial increase in carbon storage, with an estimated magnitude of 7.02 × 10⁶ tons by the year 2040. According to the natural evolution scenario, the total amount of carbon storage is anticipated to remain similar to that of 2020, with a marginal increase of 2.81 × 10⁵ tons. Under the arable land protection scenario, carbon storage is predicted to decrease by 1.060 × 10⁷ tons. Conversely, the urban development scenario is expected to result in the most substantial reduction of 2.243 × 10⁷ tons of carbon storage. These findings underscore the efficacy of adopting ecological protection and natural development policies in curbing the decline in carbon storage. (3) The geographic distribution of carbon storage areas exhibits a strong correspondence with that of land use. Regions characterized by elevated carbon storage levels exhibit minimal urban construction land, an abundance of compact and contiguous ecological land, and a higher frequency of such land parcels. To enhance regional carbon storage levels and achieve sustainable development goals, future endeavors should prioritize the implementation of ecological protection and natural development policies.

Coastal zones face mounting pressures from rapid urban expansion and ecological degradation, posing significant challenges to achieving synergistic carbon storage and emissions reduction under China’s “dual carbon” goals. Yet, the identification of spatially explicit zones of carbon synergy (high storage–low emissions) and conflict (high emissions–low storage) in these regions remains limited. This study integrates the PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation), InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs), and OPGD (optimal parameter-based GeoDetector) models to evaluate the impacts of land-use/cover change (LUCC) on coastal carbon dynamics in China from 2000 to 2030. Four contrasting land-use scenarios (natural development, economic development, ecological protection, and farmland protection) were simulated to project carbon trajectories by 2030. From 2000 to 2020, rapid urbanization resulted in a 29,929 km2 loss of farmland and a 43,711 km2 increase in construction land, leading to a net carbon storage loss of 278.39 Tg. Scenario analysis showed that by 2030, ecological and farmland protection strategies could increase carbon storage by 110.77 Tg and 110.02 Tg, respectively, while economic development may further exacerbate carbon loss. Spatial analysis reveals that carbon conflict zones were concentrated in major urban agglomerations, whereas spatial synergy zones were primarily located in forest-rich regions such as the Zhejiang–Fujian and Guangdong–Guangxi corridors. The OPGD results demonstrate that carbon synergy was driven largely by interactions between socioeconomic factors (e.g., population density and nighttime light index) and natural variables (e.g., mean annual temperature, precipitation, and elevation). These findings emphasize the need to harmonize urban development with ecological conservation through farmland protection, reforestation, and low-emission planning. This study, for the first time, based on the PLUS-Invest-OPGD framework, proposes the concepts of “carbon synergy” and “carbon conflict” regions and their operational procedures. Compared with the single analysis of the spatial distribution and driving mechanisms of carbon stocks or carbon emissions, this method integrates both aspects, providing a transferable approach for assessing the carbon dynamic processes in coastal areas and guiding global sustainable planning.

Land use/land cover change is a key factor affecting the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems， and understanding the impact of land use change on ecosystem carbon storage and its economic value has great significance to the realization of the "dual carbon" goal. Using the FLUS and InVEST models， we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use and carbon storage in Wuhan from 2000 to 2020 and further simulated the impacts of land use changes on carbon storage under different scenarios （natural development scenario， economic priority development scenario， and comprehensive development scenario） in 2035. We also estimated the economic value of carbon storage in each period by combining this value with the compound present value formulas. The study produced the following results： ① Cultivated land and water area are persistently the main land use types in Wuhan， and their proportion reached 73.208% in 2020. Construction land increased rapidly during the study period due to the transfer of cultivated， water， and forest land. ② During the period from 2000 to 2020， the total carbon storage showed a continuous declining trend， with a cumulative loss of 3.461 Tg. The spatial distribution pattern remained relatively stable， showing the characteristic of "higher in the north and south， lower in the middle." During this period， changes in cultivated land and construction land were the main factors contributing to the decrease in carbon storage in Wuhan. ③ The spatial pattern of carbon storage under the different scenarios in 2035 is not much different from the pattern in 2020， but there are differences in the spatial changes of carbon storage under each scenario. Affected by the change of land use types， carbon storage decreases under all three scenarios， but the comprehensive development scenario suppresses the loss of carbon storage most significantly. ④ The economic value of carbon storage in Wuhan increased by 3.056 4 billion yuan from 2000 to 2020. The economic value of carbon storage in farmland increased by 1.511 8 billion yuan through the 20 years and was the main driving force for the increase in the economic value of carbon storage in Wuhan. From 2020 to 2035， the economic value of carbon storage varies under different scenarios. The highest economic value of carbon storage， which occurs under the comprehensive development scenario， is 11.169 8 billion yuan. The results of the study provide a scientific basis for the region to enhance its carbon sequestration capacity， optimize the allocation of land resources， and formulate policies for green sustainable development.