Integrated Space Technology Plan Economic Considerations - A Framework for Assessing Strategic Alternatives

Abstract

As part of their long-term assessment NASA examines emerging technologies, architectures, short and long term infrastructure plans, and their respective enterprise wide budgetary impacts. NASA closely scrutinizes fiscal and technical facets of space transportation programs and charts out future acquisition strategy options. This “roadmap” culminates in what is known as the Integrated Space Transportation Plan (ISTP). Although many factors will eventually coalesce to form a sound, rational policy, economic considerations are fundamental to assessing alternative ISTP architectures and strategies. In support of ISTP assessments, a model was developed to aid NASA decision makers in understanding the economic impacts of alternative space transportation architectures and strategies. This spreadsheet-based tool employs an annual equivalent amount (AEA) metric to compare expenditures over a common timeframe. The model features several input factors including cost (acquisition, facilities, operations and disposal), temporal phasing, initial operating capability, asset retirement year, and flight rates to determine low cost, high utility combinations. The model outputs AEA calculations and generates cash flow profiles to rapidly assess the viability of competing architectures or strategies. As ISTP strategies emerge, the cost and economic aspects need to be addressed. The focus of this paper will be on understanding the economic aspects and will also describe a modeling approach to assess future space transportation alternatives.