Integrated modelling for river basin management: the influence of temporal and spatial scale in economic models of water allocation

Abstract

The increasing use of integrated optimization or simulation models to guide river basin management has placed greater attention on the roles that the temporal and spatial scale of each model play in determining a model's suitability and effectiveness. This is especially the case in "economic" models that incorporate monetary incentives and the optimizing behaviour of economic agents to address decisions about the sources and levels of consumptive and non-consumptive water usage within the basin. With respect to spatial scale, models that aggregate behaviour over entire river basins may prove useful for examining inter-sectoral allocations of water, but are unlikely to provide useful information about how these water allocations influence-and are influenced by-choices of crops or of technologies in irrigation, for example. With respect to temporal scale, very short-run models can illustrate options for water management within an irrigation season should unforeseen water surpluses or deficits arise. Conversely, long-run models can allow adjustment time for investments in machinery, infrastructure and changes in land uses and cropping patterns. The basin management alternatives and choices generated by models on each scale are likely to vary considerably. The paper provides specific illustrative examples from recent models of Alberta's Bow River Basin.