Integrated and realistic approach to energy planning – a case study of Slovenia

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present how multi-criteria methods can be used in the process of National Energy Programme development and analysis of the electricity generation planning in relatively small energy systems. Design/methodology/approach – Due to dependence on many input and output parameters which can be very complex and uncertain, energy systems have become extremely difficult to analyse and use of multi-criteria decision-making methods is essential. This paper presents and compares results of the analysis of electricity generation scenarios with three widely used multi-criteria methods, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), preference ranking organisation method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT). Findings – AHP, due to its transparency and simplicity in comparison with PROMETHEE and MAUT, is the most suitable method for the analysis of the electricity generation decision alternatives in a small energy system, such as Slovenian. The case study proposed in this research confirms that transition from environment unfriendly fossil-fuelled economy to sustainable and climate friendly development requires a realistic approach, which must be based on excellent knowledge of alternative possibilities of development and especially awareness of new opportunities in exploitation of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. Originality/value – The case study presented in this research represents a repeatable and practical application of three widely used multi-criteria methods in the process of national energy policy development. It provides a methodological approach for finding realistic solutions to the problem of the future development challenges in small energy systems.