Abstract

Amodel based on Bayesian belief network is put forward to solve the innovation performance problems of the urban subway construction safety in China. After a systematic analyzing of the influence factors on the technological innovation performance, 13 variables were chosen in the light of implementation factors, interference factors, mediation factors and control factors, by taking the application of building information model as a case study. The causal relationship between these variables was constructed by the cause and effect diagram of experts' prior knowledge, combined with the correlation analysis method to determine the Bayesian belief network system structure. Sample data was got through a structural questionnaire survey. It was fit by NETICA software to get the probability density of each node. The application results show that this method can achieve a certain quantitative analysis of the innovation performance of the subway construction safety technology, and has better compliance compared with actual engineering situation.

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