Informing the future of Australian mining through climate change scenarios

Abstract

Mining value chains are vulnerable to a changing climate mainly due to the likelihood of increases in the incidence of extreme weather events. As such events will potentially become more frequent and more intense, the associated impacts such as infrastructure damage, production delays and downtime may damage mine profitability, staff safety, company reputation, regional 'liveability' and government revenues. Mining adaptation strategies to better deal with such impacts can be developed but the options available cannot simply be applied 'across the board' at all mines and in all situations. Various types of mining in Australia occur across 11 main geographic areas, each with its own processes and needs, its own climate signature and its own extreme-event profile. To provide some context for the likely changes in future climate, CSIRO has developed mining region-specific scenarios in association with the OzClim Climate Change Scenario Generator. OzClim generates climate change scenarios using pattern scaling where the change at a particular grid point is normalised by the mean global warming produced by the model for a doubled CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The patterns of change are produced for each of the 23 global climate models and for the purposes of the Australian mining regions, we have expressed changes consistent with an historical baseline in order to make the projection information as contextually relevant as possible. To bridge the gap between scenarios and users, CSIRO facilitated workshop events in mining regions. Representatives of a cross-section of the mining chain (including energy, mining, transport, research, water and community stakeholders) were invited to attend, some of whom were first interviewed by facilitators to gain an insight into their operations, understandings, and needs with regard to the workshop. The attendees were presented with future regional climate scenarios, additional information from other studies and climate location analogues helping to further 'set the scene' for the future and helping to facilitate discussion around potential impacts and adaptation needs. Discussions at the workshops provided the means for the scenarios to be placed in their local context, whilst hearing how others in the chain may be directly and indirectly impacted and how they may adapt. Mines and their related infrastructure are frequently long-term investments for all concerned. Therefore, future climate scenarios are valuable for mining value chains and the decision-makers to envisage and plan the future, including adaptation at established sites, alternative processes at new sites and contingency plans that accommodate new levels of variability. Utilising workshops to link future climate scenarios to the value chain and its operational components assisted the end-users to visualise, conceptualise and engage with adaptation decision-making scenarios. The event also brought together participants from different parts of the mining chain who were able to share knowledge and discuss needs that may in the future aid adaptation and avoid maladaptation.