Informal or Formal? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of China’s Two-Tiered Sanctions Policy

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Abstract Since introducing a series of domestic regulations and laws related to sanctions in 2019, China has increasingly employed formal sanctions against foreign actors over the past six years while still relying on its old-style informal sanctions approach. This study investigates the conditions under which China opts for formal versus informal sanctions and explores the synergistic effects of multiple factors shaping its choice. To address these questions, it develops an integrated analytical framework that incorporates both internal and external factors and formulates four research hypotheses. These hypotheses are tested using multi-value Qualitative Comparative Analysis based on a unique dataset comprising 67 cases of China’s sanctions from January 2019 to December 2024. The findings reveal that high-stakes issues and China’s relationship with the target are the primary stimuli for formal sanctions. In particular, when the United States and its allies challenge China’s core interests—especially those concerning China’s Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Taiwan—Beijing tends to impose formal sanctions. However, these sanctions are targeted in nature, limited in scope, and largely expressive or symbolic. Conversely, when other actors challenge China over either low- or high-stakes issues, China is more likely to resort to informal methods and impose greater economic costs on the target. By further incorporating the dimension of intensity into the analysis of China’s two-tiered sanctions policy, this study demonstrates how Beijing pursues a cautious balancing strategy to signal resolve while minimizing economic, geopolitical, and reputational costs.

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