Abstract
Impact of climate change on soil properties has been studied by several researchers. However, the influence of soil moisture has received little attention as a key component of agricultural climate change. Using meteorological data in Anuradhapura District in Sri Lanka (one of the main paddy producers in the island nation), this study evaluated the impact of climate change on soil moisture. Monthly soil moisture values were calculated using a water balance approach. Analysis of historical data (from 1950 to 2016) indicate a strong seasonal influence on soil moisture patterns. Correlation analysis between paddy yield and physical variables indicated that soil moisture is a stronger covariate than either temperature or precipitation alone. A good relationship between soil moisture and the El Nino effect was not identified. Scenario analyses indicated that soil moisture is more sensitive to precipitation changes than temperature changes in Anuradhapura. This study highlights the value of continuous monitoring of soil moisture along with other climatic data for insights regarding mitigation of future agricultural concerns.
Highlights
Q WKLV ZRUN WZR TXHVWLRQV DERXW FOLPDWH DQG VRLO moisture are addressed: 1) which climate conditions drive the variability in soil moisture? and 2) how do these FRQGLWLRQV YDU\ LQ WLPH DFURVV VHDVRQV" This analysis IRFXVHG RQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH UHODWLYH LQÀXHQFH RI temperature versus precipitation on driving soil moisture patterns in Anuradhapura both historically and into the future
Qualitative comparison of the patterns of soil moisture derived from the water balance with those from satellite data indicates that this approach could be useful for assisting in decisions about seasonal crop water allocations as adaptations to climate change evolve
The analysis considers antecedent FRQGLWLRQV DV ZHOO QRWDEO\ WKH VRLO PRLVWXUH DW D JLYHQ WLPHVWHS *LYHQ WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKHVH FDOFXODWLRQV manual calculations of soil moisture using a water balance DSSURDFK LV TXLWH WLPHFRQVXPLQJ VR D 0$7/$% WRRO SURYLGHG E\ -DFREL et al (2013) is adapted in the analysis
Summary
This article is published under the Creative Commons CC-BY-ND License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/). 7KLVOLFHQVHSHUPLWVXVHGLVWULEXWLRQDQGUHSURGXFWLRQFRPPHUFLDODQGQRQFRPPHUFLDOSURYLGHGWKDWWKHRULJLQDOZRUNLV properly cited and is not changed in anyway. 2) how do these FRQGLWLRQV YDU\ LQ WLPH DFURVV VHDVRQV" This analysis IRFXVHG RQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH UHODWLYH LQÀXHQFH RI temperature versus precipitation on driving soil moisture patterns in Anuradhapura both historically and into the future. The historical analysis considers temporal variation of the primary variables of temperature and precipitation on soil moisture as well as regional climate SKHQRPHQDVXFKDV(O1LxRZKHUHDVWKHIXWXUHDQDO\VHV are scenario-based. These scenarios help to evaluate the sensitivity of soil moisture to different climate conditions. Qualitative comparison of the patterns of soil moisture derived from the water balance with those from satellite data indicates that this approach could be useful for assisting in decisions about seasonal crop water allocations as adaptations to climate change evolve
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