Influence of XBT Temperature Bias on Decadal Climate Prediction with a Coupled Climate Model

Abstract

Abstract The influence of the expendable bathythermograph (XBT) depth bias correction on decadal climate prediction is presented by using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model called the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3 (MIROC3). The global mean subsurface ocean temperatures that were simulated by the model with the prescribed anthropogenic and natural forcing are consistent with bias-corrected observations from the mid-1960s onward, but not with uncorrected observations. The latter is reflected by biases in subsurface ocean temperatures, particularly along thermoclines in the tropics and subtropics. When the correction is not applied to XBT observations, these biases are retained in data assimilation results for the model’s initial conditions. Hindcasting past Pacific decadal oscillations (PDOs) is more successful in the experiment with the bias-corrected observations than that without the correction. Improvement of skill in predicting 5-yr mean vertically average ocean subsurface temperature is also seen in the tropical and the central North Pacific where PDO-related signals appear large.