Abstract
In this work, we present the uncertainties of the empirical model developed to predict the solar quiet regular daily field variation (Sq) over the Brazilian sector called the Solar Quiet Reference Field (SQRF) model. The SQRF is based on the magnetic station records from the Embrace Magnetometer Network (Embrace MagNet) during the solar cycle 24. Although the prediction and the magnetic field records have a good agreement, we observe that each magnetic station shows a random error behavior, propagating small errors in the model. Also, some physical aspects, as tidal winds and ionospheric conductivity, may have influenced our predictions. Thus, these uncertainties in the Sq field can propagate errors and influence geomagnetic indices' calculation by erroneously scaling the geomagnetic disturbances. In this context, we introduce a new approach to derive a ‘real-time’ geomagnetic index based on the SQRF model for the Sq-H field over the South American sector. We analyze one geomagnetic storm event to show that the results have a good representation of the geomagnetic indices. Finally, this analysis yields a new approach to derive the geomagnetic index for space weather applications and studies that requires an Sq field prediction.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
