Influence of renewable energy trends on fossil fuel refining operations

This study examined the impact of agriculture sector growth on unemployment level as well as the direction of causality between agricultural sector output and unemployment level in Nigeria. Secondary annual time series data between 1981 and 2016 were used for the study. Data on unemployment rate, agriculture sector output, public expenditure and industrial output were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical Bulletin while data on FDI and population growth were obtained from the World Bank World Development Indicators. The data were analyzed using ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller Test) unit root test, Autoregressive distributed lag Bounds test of cointegration, Autoregressive distributed lag error correction model estimation and Granger causality. The results of ADF unit root test revealed variables were at different orders of integration, the ARDL bounds test revealed cointegration between variables, and the Autoregressive distributed lag error correction model estimation revealed that change in agriculture output in the current period is negative and significant for current unemployment level in Nigeria, while the change in one period lagged agriculture output was positive and significant for current unemployment level in Nigeria. Also the error correction term indicated that about 74.10 percent of the disequilibrium in the system in the previous year would be corrected in the current year. Granger causality test results revealed bi-directional causality between agriculture output and unemployment level in Nigeria. The study recommends that the Nigeria government should using strategic policies targeted at boosting agriculture output such as increasing access to land for peasant rural farmers, investments in agricultural research, and so on, seek to boost agriculture output in order to reduce unemployment in Nigeria. Further, the Nigeria government should ensure that agriculture sector development policies are consistent with the objective of reducing unemployment in Nigeria.

Input-output price ratio is an important factor in the use of purchased farm inputs. Sufficient empirical evidence is needed to guide rational and accurate prediction of fertilizer demand in a predominantly peasant, external input-driven agro-ecosystem. This study employed time series data for the years 1970 to 2005 to estimate relative price elasticities of fertilizer demand in Nigeria using price ratios of fertilizer to cassava. The autoregressive distributed lag error correction model (ARDL-ECM) produced a plausible estimate of short-run and long-run price elasticities of fertilizer demand with respect to the relative price ratio. The ECM coefficient showed a slow adjustment of fertilizer use to the error correction term, indicating that fertilizer use responds slowly to shifts and shocks in the determining variables. This implies that inspite of the inherent difficulties associated with using fertilizers in Nigeria, the farmers still recognize its relevance in crop production as well as the attendant economic benefits. Another plausible finding of the study was the positive correlation between fertilizer use and irrigation. Following these outcomes, it was advocated, in the main, that farmers should be well informed on market opportunities with consideration given to input and output prices. The onus lies in establishing a workable market information system that would provide timely information with respect to spatial and temporal price variations in both input and output markets. In this same vein, emphasis was laid on developing irrigation infrastructure as a major policy thrust for fostering fertilizer use across the country

This paper presents an assessment of renewable and fossil fuel consumption on CO₂ emissions of major polluting sectors in the United States using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM). The results show that renewable energy reduces emissions in the long-run, though short-run effects vary by sector due to integration challenges. The production and consumption of fossil fuels remain a dominant driver of emissions, particularly in the industrial, transportation, and electric power sectors. Energy prices also play a critical role: while higher electricity prices promote efficiency, elevated crude oil prices are associated with sustained emissions. Industry-specific dynamics emphasize the need for targeted policies such as investments in modernizing the grid, industrial energy efficiency and adoption of electric vehicles. While the renewable transition aligns with economic growth, ensuring equitable access and adapting the technology in the face of change is a daunting task. These results also highlight the importance of adaptive sectoral approaches that help align decarbonization objectives with economic sustainability, ensuring a just and effective energy transition in the United States.

Literature discusses numerous factors relating to financial ratios and balance sheet components influencing firm value, the key indicator for evaluating firms’ performance. Besides, research works examining the determinants of firm value in women-owned firms are rarely seen. Reacting to this, present study aims to analyse the impact of 14 key variables that belong to financial ratios and balance sheet components on firm value, with a specific focus on women-owned firms. Using data of 381 women-owned firms sourced from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy spanning 2014–2023, this study employs principal component analysis on 14 variables to obtain three key significant indices to apply panel autoregressive distributed lag error correction model subsequently on the identified indices. The results unequivocally demonstrate the significant positive impact of financial ratios and balance sheet components on the firm value of women-owned firms. This research can enable the stakeholders to plan and execute strategies for improvement and mitigate the risk.

In this paper, we assess the effects of Central Bank Funding (C.B.F.) on commercial bank lending behaviour by using weekly Turkish data from 7 January 2011 to 5 June 2015. To be specific, using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model, we assess the effects of C.B.F. provided daily by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey through Open Market Operations to financial markets. Our empirical evidence reveals that for all types of lending, an increase in C.B.F. (which has a higher cost for commercial banks relative to alternatives) forces commercial banks to borrow from higher-cost channels, i.e., we find that increasing C.B.F. discourages commercial bank lending. We also find that decreases in C.B.F. that proxy what commercial banks can borrow more cheaply from alternative sources increase commercial bank lending. However, increasing C.B.F. is more effective than decreasing C.B.F. for Total Bank Loans, Total Credit Cards and Automobile Loans, and decreasing C.B.F. is more effective in the short run for Consumption Loans, Housing Loans and Commercial Loans: short-run asymmetry. Therefore, we can report only limited support for long-run asymmetry, and consequently, claim that there is magnitude (an increase versus decrease in C.B.F.) and category asymmetry (across different lending categories).

How the price dynamics of energy resources and precious metals interact with conventional and Islamic Stocks: Fresh insight from dynamic ARDL approach

This study contributes to the literature by investigating the health and financial development nexus in South Africa. The ‘health is wealth’ debate was again exemplified by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, thereby raising awareness of the inescapable links between poor health and diverse threats to global socioeconomic prosperity. Thus, the influencing factors of health have continued to be studied. Accounting for structural breaks, the study estimates annual time series data sourced from the World Development Indicators within the autoregressive distributed lag error correction model (ARDL-ECM). The regression outcomes show that financial development has differential impacts on health outcomes. In particular, financial development proxied by domestic credit to the private sector has a negative effect on life expectancy at birth while reducing child mortality, thereby fostering better child health outcomes. This research engages health policy strategists on the right policy mix to achieve better health outcomes. While the financial development drive is ongoing, efforts should be intensified to improve socioeconomic determinants of health, and policy strategies aimed at solving national priority health challenges should be logically pursued.

Macroeconomic stability has been a concern to many economies as it shows the economic health of a nation. Kenya has had unsustainable and persistent fiscal deficit which has been phenomenal in the recent past despite several economic reforms being established in an attempt to stabilizing the economy. The study was informed by the persistent increase in the budget deficit in Kenya amidst economic stagnation and macroeconomic instability. This therefore led to an attempt to establish the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on the budget deficit in Kenya. The specific objectives were to determine the effect of interest rates; exchange rate; inflation and money supply on budget deficit in Kenya. The study sought to evaluate the significant effect of the selected macroeconomic variables on budget deficit in order to formulate the policy consideration to the economic problem. The study was guided by the Keynesian which was the main theory of the study. The Mundell-Fleming and Ricardian Equivalence theories were also employed as addition theories to back up the study. The study methodology was based on an explanatory design for time series data covering 30 years from 1991 to 2020. Autoregressive distributed lag error correction model (ARDL) estimation was adopted to analyze and infer results of the study. The CUSUM model stability test indicated that the model was stable and the model coefficient was reliable. Diagnostic test results showed there was no autocorrelation (p=0.1510>2.062), no heteroscedasticity (p=0.0903>21.47), and there was no multicollinearity (vif=1.34). Shapiro wilk normality test indicated that the variables of the study were normally distributed. The ADF unit root test indicated that there was unit root and co-integration test confirmed that the variables had a long run relationship. The findings of the study were: interest rate had a positive significant effect on budget deficit in the long run ( β_1=0.0404, <0.05); exchange rate had a positive significant effect on budget deficit ( β_2=0.4189, <0.05); inflation had a negative insignificant effect on budget deficit ( β_3=-0.001, >0.05). Money supply had a positive insignificant effect on Budget deficit ( β_4=0.00004, >0.05). The ARDL long-run results showed that the explanatory variables had Adjusted R2=0.4666 impact on the budget deficit and an F-statistics of 135.5802. The study therefore concluded that interest rate had a positive effect on the budget deficit in the long run. Increasing interest rates in the economy ends up driving budget deficit upwards in the long run. The same was true when the variable of concern is exchange rate. The study findings recommend that there is need for the government to ensure there is stability in macroeconomic variables. This is because there was a significant link between the budget deficit and the selected macroeconomic variables. A strive by the government to reduce budget deficit would mean an adjustment in macroeconomic variables to suit the purpose. These adjustments may include reducing the interest rate in the economy. A reduction in the interest rates in the economy would end up reducing the budget deficit.

This research analyzes risk avoidance behaviour of banking institutions in distributing working capital loan in Indonesia. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model, this paper uncovers three findings. First, in the short run, risk avoidance in working capital loan distribution depends on inter-call banking money market and Sertifikat Bank Indonesia. Second, following banking regulation after 1997 crisis, banks have become more careful in distributing credits, with SBI as a substitution instrument and inter-call banking money market as a complement instrument to spread the risk. Third, all explanatory variables take an average of 6 days or 1 week to influence bank’s risk avoidance behaviour. Keywords:    Risk avoidance, working capital distribution, banking institutions JEL classification numbers: C32, C52, D81, E51

Climate change is one of the major contributors to reduced agricultural production globally, and particularly in Africa, where the majority of households rely on rain-fed agriculture. Variability in rainfall, rising temperatures, and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels put crops at risk. Guided by Nerlove’s agricultural supply-response theory, the study conceptualized maize production as mainly influenced by climatic factors, with rainfall and temperature treated as external factors that shift the maize supply curve. A quantitative longitudinal design was adopted to assess the impact of climate change on maize production in Tanzania, with emphasis on Kongwa, Kilosa, and Mufindi. Secondary time series (1990–2020) data on annual rainfall, temperature, maize production, and cultivated area under maize were collected from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the Food and Agriculture Organization for quantitative analysis using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM). The model results show that maize production is strongly affected by rainfall in the short run, with significant effects in Kongwa (0.0029; p < 0.001), Kilosa (0.0010; p = 0.012), and Mufindi (0.0010; p < 0.001). Although the short-run rainfall effects suggest an immediate, but not lasting, impact on maize production, the long-run rainfall effects were insignificant across districts. In Mufindi, temperature had a significant impact on maize production in the short and long run (–0.0311; p < 0.001), indicating that warming reduces production in cooler highlands. The error-correction terms (ECT) were significant across districts: Kongwa (–0.9946; p < 0.001), Kilosa (–0.9855; p = 0.003), and Mufindi (–0.3563; p = 0.027), implying that production adjusts to climatic shocks over time. An increasingly cultivated area under maize enhances resilience, but it is still climate-constrained. Rainfall variability affects Kongwa and Kilosa, which are resilient owing to a milder climate, and Mufindi, which is vulnerable to temperature stress. The study suggests agricultural crop insurance, climate-resilient infrastructure and technology, improved irrigation in Kongwa, better water management in Kilosa, and heat-tolerant varieties in Mufindi as key interventions to meet these challenges and support food security across Tanzania’s agroecologies.

The manufacturing sector is named as a key sector that promotes development through contribution to Gross Domestic Product, employment generation, value addition, diversification, industrialization and technological innovations. The government of Kenya has spent a lot of resources to boost the growth of the manufacturing sector. The need for growth in this sector picked momentum in the early 60s. Policies like the Import substitution in 1963-1970, Structural Adjustment Programs in the 80s, the Vision 2030 in 2008, the Kenya Industrial Transformation Program in 2015, and the Big Four Agenda in 2018 have been implemented to spur growth in the sector and to turn Kenya into an industrial middle-income economy. Much emphasis has since been placed on spending by increased government expenditure towards the manufacturing sector to improve the overall performance. Despite all, the conduct of the manufacturing sector, as shown by the sector's contribution to the Gross Domestic Product, only increased substantially in the first three decades after independence, after which it stagnated to below 9 percent to date. The purpose of the study was to find out the effect of government capital expenditure in the manufacturing sector on the sector's performance. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction model was used to achieve the objective of the study. The study found out that public resources were allocated to the manufacturing sector. Further, the study found out that government capital expenditure significantly contribute to growth of the manufacturing sector. Recurrent expenditure was also statistically significant in explaining changes in the manufacturing sector performance vfffff

This research aimed to estimate the short run and long run (steady state) model on credit market, which influenced on risk hindering behavior by debtor, and taking banking regulation into model as a shock. Analyzing on investment credit market is related with asymmetric information problem and dynamic decision. This research was using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) to analyze this behavior because all variables were integrated on different level. In the short run, the debtor behaviors is only influenced by real interest rate on rupiah working capital, and in the long run his behavior influenced by real interest rate on rupiah working capital, and expected on real national income. But debtor behavior do not influence by real interest rate on rupiah investment credit in short and long run. Banking regulation do not influence the investment credit risk hindering behavior on debtor. On average, every change in explanatory variables need 24 days by debtor to adjust his behavior on investment credit market.

The tax reformation and economic development in Malaysia have sparked the motivation of this study to understand the influence of such reform on consumers’ burden. An investigation into these relationships is important due to the current increase on consumers burden which had become a popular issue since the introduction of GST in 2015, and the comeback of SST in 2018 to replace the GST. This study intends to provide evidence concerning Malaysian tax reform and economic growth on consumers burden by examining the influence on price level. It employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) estimation to analyze quarterly data for the period 1996-2020. The findings reveal that indirect taxes have negative relationship both in the short and long run while economic growth is positively related with consumers’ burden. This outcome rules out the public accusation that the tax reform would cause the price level to increase hence worsen the consumer’s burden. Nevertheless, it is the economic growth that consumers need to take advantage of as it positively influences the demand for goods and services hence increase the price. The study shed further direction for the government in formulating taxation and economic policies so as not to compromising the burden of consumers.

The role of human capital development in urbanization-economic growth nexus: A new insight on Nigeria

The research examined the effect of financial inclusion on agricultural production in Nigeria from 1991 to 2022. Specifically, the study determined the effects of commercial bank loans and advances to the agricultural sector, deposits from rural branches of commercial banks, Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund and interest rates on agricultural output in Nigeria. Annual secondary data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and Index Mundi Database. The data was analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model. The result showed that in the long run and short run, the independent variables agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund, commercial banks loans and advances to agricultural sector and interest rate had significant effect on agricultural output (PV < 0.05), whereas deposits of rural branches of commercial banks did not have significant effect on agricultural output (PV > 0.05) both in the long and short runs. The study recommended that loans from agricultural credit guarantee scheme funds be used for the agricultural purposes that they are aimed at so as to reduce the negative effect it had on agriculture within the study period.