Industrial Carbon Capture Storage (CSS) Model Using Times-Japan Framework

Abstract

Carbon Capture and storage may contribute as much as one-fifth of the necessary reductions to meet the IEA’s emissions goals for 2050. CCS is one of the only technologies that reduces the carbon impact of “business as usual,” preventing CO2 from burning fossil fuels and certain industries from entering the atmosphere. Japan has geological, regulatory, and financial advantages encouraging investment in CCS and several demonstration projects are already underway. Using a Markel-Times system model, long-term road map results are presented for Japan’s future energy mix and CCS capacity. In the short term until 2030, import prices of fossil fuels are expected to increase while renewable solar and wind power will grow rapidly. The role of nuclear power is more debatable in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, but the projection anticipates at least some nuclear power to be used in the coming decades. Two industries are modeled for CCS, steel production and cement manufacture. Launched by start-up investments, CCS is expected to begin industrially from 2015 and could grow to capture and store more than 90 PJ of carbon from the steel industry per year and another 60 PJ from cement factories every five years.