Abstract
Drastic reduction in biodiversity has been a severe threat to ecosystems, which is exacerbated when losing few species leads to disastrous and even irreparable consequences. Therefore, revealing the mechanism underlining biodiversity loss is of uttermost importance. In this study, we show that abundant indirect interactions among mutualistic ecosystems are critical in determining species' status. Combining topological and ecological characteristics, we propose an indicator derived from a dynamic model to identify keystone species and quantify their influence, which outperforms widely-used indicators like degree in realistic and simulated networks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that networks with high modularity, heterogeneity, biodiversity, and less intimate interactions tend to have larger indirect effects, which are more amenable in predicting decline of biodiversity with the proposed indicator. These findings shed some light onto the influence of apposite biodiversities, paving the way from complex network theory to ecosystem protection and restoration.
Highlights
The sixth mass extinction episode [1] has been characterized by rapid rate of biodiversity loss [2] and extensive endangered species facing imminent crisis of annihilation compared with historical data [3]
We propose an indicator T out based on dynamic coextinction model (DCM) integrating topological, dynamical, and ecological properties to explore the influence of different species in mutualistic ecosystems, which greatly facilitates the keystone species identification and prediction of biodiversity decline
Incorporating network dynamics and ecological characteristics, we identify keystone species and explore biodiversity decline of mutualistic networks with DCM
Summary
The sixth mass extinction episode [1] has been characterized by rapid rate of biodiversity loss [2] and extensive endangered species (the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. https://www.iucnredlist.org/en) facing imminent crisis of annihilation compared with historical data [3]. Https://www.iucnredlist.org/en) facing imminent crisis of annihilation compared with historical data [3]. Both marine and terrestrial ecosystems are confronting biodiversity and population decline, while minor biodiversity decline may have more devastating consequences such as massive secondary extinction [4]. In ubiquitous mutualistic ecosystems, like those composed of plants and pollinators or seeds and dispersers, annihilation of a single species could trigger long-term shifts in systems’ states due to the complex dynamic interactions. Such biodiversity decline could eventually drive a system to a degraded state and even disastrous disintegrate. To investigate the importance of different species and forecast secondary extinctions, a topological coextinction model (TCM) [8–10] has been established according to static characteristics of ecosystems, where
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