India’s Service Trade and Asymmetry in J-curve: The Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Models

Exports of services is one of the key factors for successful fulfillment of Ukraine’s integration potential. The study focuses on Ukraine’s trade in services with the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in the context of the signed Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement. On March 20, 2023 the Digital Trade Agreement between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is signed. The analysis of the data taken from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine allows to consider the dynamics of exports, imports, balance of trade in services between 2016 and 2021. The results show that: firstly, exports of services to Great Britain in 2016 – 462.9 mln USD or 4.69% of all exports of services of Ukraine, while in 2021 – 784.5 mln USD or 6.14%; secondly, the share of services imports from Great Britain in the total services imports of Ukraine has been decreasing – from 10.57% in 2016 to 7.64% in 2021; however, imports of services from the United Kingdom in 2016 – 563.1 mln USD, while in 2021 – 609.6 mln USD. Thirdly, during the period under review the turnover of services increased from 1026.0 mln USD in 2016 to 1394.0 mln USD in 2021. Fourthly, in 2016 the balance of trade in services is negative of 100.3 mln USD and in 2021 it is positive of 175.97 mln USD. It is underlined that in 2021 Great Britain occupies the fourth place among the major partner countries of Ukraine in exports of services and the third place among the major partner countries in imports of services. In 2021, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the main types of services exported to Great Britain are the following: services in the sphere of telecommunications, computer and information services – 497.3 mln USD or 62% with positive balance of 426.4 mln USD; transport services – 153.4 mln USD or 19.1% with positive balance of 116.8 mln USD, and business services –109.5 mln USD or 13.6% with negative balance of 52.0 mln USD. In 2021 the main types of services imported from the United Kingdom are: business services – 161.5 mln USD or 27,2%; financial services – 88.9 mln USD or 15% with negative balance of 86.6 mln USD; travel services – 87.5 mln USD or 14.7% with negative balance of 76.6 mln USD; royalty and other intellectual property services – 86.6 mln USD or 14.6% with negative balance of 82.2 mln USD; services in the sphere of telecommunications, computer and information services – 70.9 mln USD or 11.9%. Overall, the integration processes between the two countries, revealed through the trade in services, have been strengthened.

This paper assesses the impacts of the WTO Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) on trade in both goods and services among members using a gravity model applied to a panel dataset covering 20 OECD countries over the period 1996-2008 for trade in goods and 1999-2008 for trade in services. The agreement dates from 1996 and covers 41 (mainly OECD) countries (/areas). China is now negotiating possible membership. Little has been written on the GPA which is a plurilateral agreement covering both goods and services. It mutually extends commitments only to signatories, but has commitments going beyond those in the earlier GATT procurement code. Government service markets are large, and trade in these also has spillover effects on trade in services and goods. Results suggest that GPA membership has a positive impact on trade in both goods and services between parties as well as on outward foreign affiliate service sales. The number of GPA parties has a small marginal negative effect on trade in goods. Service exports also increase slightly with more parties participating in the GPA. The growth of government procurement contracts above the threshold under the GPA also fosters service imports, exports and outward foreign affiliate sales.

This paper assesses the impacts of the WTO Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) on trade in both goods and services among members using a gravity model applied to a panel dataset covering 20 OECD countries over the period 1996-2008 for trade in goods and 1999-2008 for trade in services. The agreement dates from 1996 and covers 41 (mainly OECD) countries (/areas). China is now negotiating possible membership. Little has been written on the GPA which is a plurilateral agreement covering both goods and services. It mutually extends commitments only to signatories, but has commitments going beyond those in the earlier GATT procurement code. Government service markets are large, and trade in these also has spillover effects on trade in services and goods. Results suggest that GPA membership has a positive impact on trade in both goods and services between parties as well as on outward foreign affiliate service sales. The number of GPA parties has a small marginal negative effect on trade in goods. Service exports also increase slightly with more parties participating in the GPA. The growth of government procurement contracts above the threshold under the GPA also fosters service imports, exports and outward foreign affiliate sales.

Because of the differing forms that international agreements on trade in goods and trade in services take in the GATT (1994) and the GATS there is an incompatibility between measures of world trade in goods and services. Measures of goods trade reflecting GATT (1994) are restricted to trade that crosses borders. Service trade, however, under GATS mode 3 (commercial presence) includes both cross border delivery and foreign affiliate sales within borders. As a result, present comparisons of services and goods trade, as in WTO (2007), are unsatisfactory. One can further argue that our perceptions of the degree of integration in the global economy are likely ill formed, and for comparability the trade component of affiliate sales in goods should be included in goods trade or affiliate sales should be removed from service trade data. Here, we make modifications to reported goods and services trade for specific countries where this is possible by using data on affiliate sales in both goods and services to produce more consistently measured cross country estimates of trade flows. This allows us to compare combined total goods and services trade both over time and across countries, as well as growth rates of trade, trade imbalances and the relative size of trade in goods and services. We use three different statistical bases for measures. One of them is the present mixed GATT and GATS basis; another is trade including foreign affiliate sales, and a final one excludes foreign affiliate sales. Perceptions both on the combined size of country goods and services trade as well as their relative size change a lot using these three measures. We finally draw conclusions and offer policy implications.

The critical role of the state’s trade policy in the development of Ukraine's integration potential and the key role of services in international trade are emphasized. The prospects for the development of Ukraine's integration potential through the expansion of the Free Trade Agreement with the State of Israel to trade in services are highlighted. The analysis of the data taken from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine allows to consider the dynamics of exports, imports, balance of trade in goods and services between Ukraine and the State of Israel for the period of 2016 and 2021. The results show that the integration relations between the countries are strengthened primarily thanks to the exports: in 2016, the exports of goods and services – 657.0 mln USD, and in 2021 – more than 1,0 bln USD, i.e. increased 1.6 times, while the imports of goods and services in 2016 –204.4 mln USD, and in 2021 – 267.6, i.e. grew 1.3 times. In the context of the signed Free Trade Agreement, it is emphasized that the exports of goods rose by 23% in 2021, and the exports of services – by 27% compared to 2020. The balance in trade in both goods and services has been positive. The share of exports of services in all exports of goods and services of Ukraine to the State of Israel has been growing and in 2021 it reached 29% which also confirms the necessity to develop Ukraine’s integration potential by covering trade in services in the expanded FTA. The types of exported and imported services are presented. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the main types of services exported to Israel are the services in the sphere of telecommunications, computer and information services – 232 mln. USD, or 63%, with positive balance of 226 mln. USD and transport services – 117 mln. USD, or 32%, with positive balance of 94 mln. USD. The main types of services imported from the State of Israel are the transport services – 24 mln. USD or 59% and services in the sphere of telecommunications, computer and information services – 6.4 mln. USD or 16%. The trade in services of innovative nature are also to be covered by the FTA

Using a newly assembled, consistent and disaggregated dataset (12 goods and 7 services) on internal and bilateral trade for 25 European countries, we analyse the difference between trade in goods and services. The measurement of both trade in goods and trade in services is improved over earlier research, allowing us to compare trade in goods and services in a coherent and systematic way. First, our dataset is made consistent with the domestic demand and production and the total exports and imports at the sector and product levels. Second, we explicitly control for re-exports. We find that, although goods are more often bilaterally traded than services, the volume of bilateral trade in services does not attenuate less with distance than the volume of bilateral trade in goods.

The empirical literature on aid for trade (AfT) mainly considers its effects on merchandise trade and investment. In this paper we examine the relationship between AfT and trade in services as well as trade in goods over 2002-2015 in both aggregate and bilateral analysis. We observe complementarities between services AfT and merchandise trade, reflecting the fact that most AfT is aid allocated to services sectors that are important inputs into production and trade in goods. The analysis suggests that most categories of AfT are not associated with greater trade in services. Only AfT directed towards economic infrastructure, notably transport and energy, is robustly associated with higher volumes of services trade. Given the importance of services for many low-income countries and the growing potential to harness new technologies to expand services trade, the results suggest a greater focus on disaggregated analysis of different categories of AfT to better understand how AfT can do more to support trade in services. Of particular note is that AfT to bolster productive capacity is strongly associated with greater merchandise trade whereas no such relationship is observed for services trade, suggesting AfT efforts do more to target capacity weaknesses that constrain growth in services trade.

One of the important sources of financing the state budget is foreign trade. Even before the start of fullscale aggression, Ukraine had certain tasks to diversify regional foreign trade priorities. The expansion and deepening of foreign economic cooperation between Ukraine and the European Union, the start of work on new Asian markets, significantly overshadowed first the drop in trade volumes, and then the cessation of trade with Russia. The article examines in detail the foreign trade relations of Ukraine and the countries of the Asian continent. Consider the system of legal regulation of foreign trade relations of Ukraine and the countries of the Asian continent. The main indicators of trade in goods and services of Ukraine and Asian countries were examined in detail, and the commodity structure of trade in goods and services of Ukraine and Asian countries was analyzed. Certain conclusions and recommendations are provided: Ukraine has a generally favorable position in trade in goods with these countries, except for China. This is evidenced by the constant positive balance in trade with Turkey, India and Saudi Arabia. Trade with China has a permanent negative balance. At the same time, a significant threat is the significant coverage ratio in trade with these countries. The value of this indicator significantly exceeds the safety limit and indicates the high dependence of Ukrainian exports on the markets of these countries. Ukraine conducts active trade in services with Asian countries, but the composition of the main partners in trade in services has changed. It remains Turkey, as well as Cyprus, UAE, Israel. In trade in services, the situation for Ukraine is unfavorable, which is evidenced by a constant negative balance and an extremely low level of the coverage ratio. The composition of trade in services is traditional both for Ukraine and for partner countries: Ukraine exports transport services to Cyprus, the UAE and Turkey, Ukraine imports travel-related services from Cyprus, the UAE and Turkey, as well as transport services from the UAE and Turkey and Israel. These services fully correspond to the geographical location of the countries.

The article substantiates the determining influence of four basic factors of international trade: natural and geographical differences between states; differences in production costs in different countries; the effect of the country's specialization in the production of the good with a greater relative advantage; the effect of the scale of production, and the corresponding theories. All other "reasons for international trade" discussed in numerous publications are at best only modified basic ones. Likewise, these theories can be applied to the analysis and forecasting of international trade in services, particularly in the field of tourism, which is relevant for the post-pandemic development of the countries of the world. Unlike international trade in goods, which recovered in 2021-2022 thanks to strong consumer demand for products, especially in advanced economies, supported by government fiscal stimulus measures, trade in services is recovering at a slower pace. Instead, the uneven distribution of vaccines, the emergence of new COVID-19 stamps and non-tariff restrictions continued to hamper the recovery of tourism and passenger transport in the service sector. Thus, trade in commercial services grew by 16% in 2021, which is 5% below the pre-pandemic level. Accordingly, the problems of the study of international trade in services, in particular tourist services, require thorough research. The existence of four reasons determines the possibility of 15 variants of types of international trade for an individual country or between any two countries. None of the four reasons for international trade is sufficient for its emergence, since only the reduction of the "resistance of distance" in the conditions of the existence of at least one reason for international trade activates its potential. Since the international trade in services needs the basis of scientifically determined approaches to its development between countries and regions in the cross-border dimension, this article presents the main scientific aspects of the theories of international trade and makes proposals for their practical implementation in solving the problems of international trade in tourist services.

Trade Profiles 2022 provides a series of key indicators on trade in goods and services for 197 economies. For merchandise trade, major exports and imports are listed for both agricultural and non-agricultural products as well as major origins and destinations for total merchandise trade. For trade in services, a detailed breakdown is provided for transport, travel and other commercial services. Statistics on intellectual property are also provided. The information is available for all WTO members and observers and for other selected economies. For each economy, the data is presented in a handy twopage format, providing a concise overview of global trade. The publication is an invaluable reference tool for anyone looking for essential trade statistics.

Trade Profiles 2020 provides a series of key indicators on trade in goods and services for 197 economies. For merchandise trade, major exports and imports are listed for both agricultural and non-agricultural products as well as major origins and destinations for total merchandise trade. For trade in services, a detailed breakdown is provided for transport, travel and other commercial services. Statistics on intellectual property are also provided. The information is available for all WTO members and observers and for other selected economies. For each economy, the data is presented in a handy two-page format, providing a concise overview of global trade. The publication is an invaluable reference tool for anyone looking for essential trade statistics.

Trade Profiles 2020 provides a series of key indicators on trade in goods and services for 197 economies. For merchandise trade, major exports and imports are listed for both agricultural and non-agricultural products as well as major origins and destinations for total merchandise trade. For trade in services, a detailed breakdown is provided for transport, travel and other commercial services. Statistics on intellectual property are also provided. The information is available for all WTO members and observers and for other selected economies. For each economy, the data is presented in a handy two-page format, providing a concise overview of global trade. The publication is an invaluable reference tool for anyone looking for essential trade statistics.

Trade Profiles 2021 provides a series of key indicators on trade in goods and services for 197 economies. For merchandise trade, major exports and imports are listed for both agricultural and non-agricultural products as well as major origins and destinations for total merchandise trade. For trade in services, a detailed breakdown is provided for transport, travel and other commercial services. Statistics on intellectual property are also provided. The information is available for all WTO members and observers and for other selected economies. For each economy, the data is presented in a handy two-page format, providing a concise overview of global trade. The publication is an invaluable reference tool for anyone looking for essential trade statistics.

Trade Profiles 2021 provides a series of key indicators on trade in goods and services for 197 economies. For merchandise trade, major exports and imports are listed for both agricultural and non-agricultural products as well as major origins and destinations for total merchandise trade. For trade in services, a detailed breakdown is provided for transport, travel and other commercial services. Statistics on intellectual property are also provided. The information is available for all WTO members and observers and for other selected economies. For each economy, the data is presented in a handy two-page format, providing a concise overview of global trade. The publication is an invaluable reference tool for anyone looking for essential trade statistics.

In this paper we use a large dataset to explore whether the liberalization of trade in services is beneficial for the international trade in goods. We find empirical evidence supporting this notion. We investigate which types of trade in services are more important for the international trade in goods and find that trade in transportation and communication services generate the largest impacts on trade in goods. We also investigate which types of trade in goods are likely to benefit from the liberalization of trade in services and find that, under the 2‐digit ISTC classification, all the categories are likely to exhibit a positive impact.