Abstract
We examine conditions under which runoff elections are likely to occur. Based on an analysis of primary elections for New Orleans' municipal offices from 1965 through 1990, we find that incumbency significantly reduces the likelihood of a runoff. Under certain conditions race may play something of a secondary role—our findings suggest that in the New Orleans context incumbency status may enable white, more than black incumbents to avoid a runoff. Our overall conclusion, however, is that incumbency per se makes a runoff unlikely.
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