Increasing rainfall due to climate change: a potential driver of decreasing voter turnout among those who already tend to abstain from voting?

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ABSTRACT It has been projected that climate change will eventually lead to increasing rainfall in the winter months in Denmark. This study explores the effect of election day weather on voter turnout in Denmark. A new data set linking weather observations (rainfall, temperature, wind speed) to voter turnout in Danish municipal elections held in mid-November from 1989 to 2021 is the primary object for analysis. Descriptive statistics show that turnout has been lower in cases of observed election day rainfall above 2 mm for many years – some places maybe back to 1945. On such rainy days, turnout has been even lower in municipalities where electorates have relatively lower income and level of education. Multivariate statistical analyses show more mixed results. Rainfall on election day appears to depress voter turnout, but whether the effect is smaller in more affluent municipalities is more ambiguous.

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