Incorporation of SWAT & WEAP models for analysis of water demand deficits in the Kala Oya River Basin in Sri Lanka: perspective for climate and land change

Assessing current and projected soil loss under changing land use and climate using RUSLE with Remote sensing and GIS in the Lake Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

This article addresses the future of freshwater resources in the Palestinian West Bank through a discussion of contemporary issues that each plays a vital role in determining the long‐term sustainability of freshwater reserves, such as water resource availability, trans‐boundary water issues, water reuse and conservation, changes in land use, and the potential impact of climate change on long‐term water management. Climate change and changing land use patterns are already altering this region's water resources. Future predictions regarding the long‐term effects of these changes are complex and therefore inherently uncertain. However, the consensus among most studies on this subject indicates that currently water‐poor regions such as the Middle East will experience even greater water stress in the future. Nearly all of the freshwater consumed in the West Bank is obtained from local groundwater supplies that are suffering overdraft as well as decreasing water quality. Climate change will exacerbate water stress by increasing overall temperatures, decreasing and fluctuating precipitation, and reducing overall aquifer replenishment. Expanding urbanization will continue to strain freshwater supplies by negatively impacting the quality and quantity of available freshwater. Water management in the West Bank is further complicated by total Israeli control over water resources, which often causes water delivery to Palestinians in this region to be marginalized. This article finds that Palestinian and Israeli water managers must plan for future water crises, which will likely be a result of the combined effects of increasing urbanization and climate change coupled with exponential population growth.

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the impact of changes in climate and land use/land cover on water availability is a prerequisite to adapt water management; yet, it can be difficult to separate the effects of these different impacts. In this paper we illustrate a separation and attribution method based on a Budyko framework. We assume that evapotranspiration (ET) is limited by the climatic forcing of precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (E0), but modified by land-surface properties. Impacts of changes in climate (i.e., E0/P) or land-surface changes on ET alter the two dimensionless measures describing relative water (ET/P) and energy partitioning (ET/E0), which allows us to separate and quantify these impacts. We use the separation method to quantify the role of environmental factors on ET using 68 small to medium range river basins covering the greatest part of the German Federal State of Saxony within the period of 1950–2009. The region can be considered as a typical central European landscape with considerable anthropogenic impacts. In the long term, most basins are found to follow the Budyko curve which we interpret as a result of the strong interactions of climate, soils and vegetation. However, two groups of basins deviate. Agriculturally dominated basins at lower altitudes exceed the Budyko curve while a set of high altitude, forested basins fall well below. When visualizing the decadal dynamics on the relative partitioning of water and energy the impacts of climatic and land-surface changes become apparent. After 1960 higher forested basins experienced large land-surface changes which show that the air pollution driven tree damages have led to a decline of annual ET on the order of 38%. In contrast, lower, agricultural dominated areas show no significant changes during that time. However, since the 1990s effective mitigation measures on industrial pollution have been established and the apparent brightening and regrowth has resulted in a significant increase of ET across most basins. In conclusion, data on both, the water and the energy balance is necessary to understand how long-term climate and land cover control evapotranspiration and thus water availability. Further, the detected land-surface change impacts are consistent in space and time with independent forest damage data and thus confirm the validity of the separation approach.

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

The study of geography is centered on the regional system of the human-land relationship, and the core of the study of the geographical system of the human-land relationship is land use change. Land use is the most direct manifestation of human activities, accompanied by changes in land cover. This is the most appropriate entry point to reveal the evolution of human-land relationships. The past 300 years have been the most intense period of social change in China and the United States. In this study, we investigated the differences and evolution of human-land relations between China and the United States from the perspective of land cover change. We found: (1) Cultivated land, forest land, and grassland areas in China and the United States have changed significantly in the past 300 years. The cultivated land area has generally increased, and the extent of forest land and grassland has declined. According to the speed of land cover change, it can be roughly divided into three different stages. The change in cultivated land in China is mainly based on the enhancement of cultivation intensity. The change in cultivated land in the United States is mainly based on expansion of cultivated land. (2) The difference in land cover change between China and the United States in the past 300 years is mainly caused by the difference in social development, interpreting human-land relationships with honest feedback and social feedback. In general, with the continuous development of land, environmental issues have become increasingly prominent, and people’s awareness of environmental protection has also increased. (3) The evolution of human-land relations in China and the United States has been influenced by natural and social factors for nearly 300 years. China is dominated by population, whereas the United States is dominated by technology. The relationship between humans and land differs between the two countries in some respects, with similarities in other areas. In both countries, this relationship can be characterized by the stages of relying on the environment, understanding the environment, transforming the environment, and protecting the environment. This evolution is in line with the law of social development, according to which human beings constantly recognize, utilize, and adapt to nature.

The Schuylkill River watershed located in southeastern Pennsylvania drains approximately 2,000 square miles and provides services to nearly 1.5 million residents. The water resources provide many benefits and services to the environment, economy and society in the region. The impact of changing climate and land use conditions on these resources has the potential of majorly affecting the day-to-day functioning of the watershed. Water management policies are designed to ensure the availability of water resources to meet the water demand in a region based on historical data. As these policies are based on historical information, it is important to assess the effects of changing climate on water resources in the future, especially with the intensification of climate change. This, coupled with changing land use conditions, could alter the quantity and quality of water resources significantly. The effects of climate and land use change on the water resources were quantified by estimating the runoff produced and the baseflow available in the region under simulated future conditions. The runoff was calculated using the Curve Number method by incorporating the effects of land use and hydrologic soil conditions present in the region. The baseflow was deduced by integrating the effects of the precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the region. The land use change conditions were projected based on historical change in impervious conditions and future demand projections. The projected land use conditions were used to calculate the Curve Number for the period of 2020-2040. The climate change conditions and hydrologic parameters used for the calculations were derived from the Localized Constructed Analog (LOCA) data and the Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) data respectively.

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. The Upper Ganges (UG) river basin in northern India experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Studies have shown evidence of strong coupling between the land surface (soil moisture) and atmosphere (precipitation) in northern India, which means that regional climate variations and changes in land use/cover could influence the temporal dynamics of land-atmosphere interactions. <br><br> This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change are affecting the hydrological response of the UG river basin. Two different sets of modelling experiments were run using the JULES Land Surface Model and covering the period 2000–2035: In the first set, climate change is taken into account, as JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5), whilst land use was kept constant at year 2010. In the second set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as apart from the CMIP5 model outputs, JULES was also forced with a time-series of 15 future land-use scenarios, based on Landsat satellite imagery and Markov chain simulation. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. <br><br> Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030–2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow [Q<sub>5</sub>] is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario [RCP8.5]. The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. <br><br> Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change from a water-demand perspective, highlighting that that demand thresholds in the UG region are projected to be exceeded in the future winter months (Dec–Feb).

To mitigate climate change at local, regional, and global scales, we must begin to think beyond greenhouse gases.

Land change science co-evolves with remote sensing technology. The world has witnessed an exponential growth in Earth observation satellites since 1972, and concurrently, land change research has experienced transformative advancement. This review summarizes the major milestones in global land cover and change mapping in a chronological order, from the pioneering efforts in the 1980s to the latest innovations at present, illustrating the tremendous progress in monitoring global land change from space. The second part of the review presents a critical synopsis of the recent progress in land change research, focusing on the technical aspects of temporal trends characterization, change mapping and area estimation, as well as the applied aspects of driver attribution and the complex consequences to the Earth system and human society. The last part of the article offers insights in the strategic directions of land change monitoring, including generation of analysis ready data, application of artificial intelligence algorithms, reconstruction of historical land change records, and near-real-time land change monitoring. Land change science will continue to play a vital role in addressing a wide range of global challenges, including climate change and carbon sequestration, food security, sustainable energy transition, natural disaster relief and environmental change in conflicted societies.

ISVEE 14 Yucatan 2015 14th Symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics

Australia’s biological diversity is world-renowned, unique, and vulnerable. It faces unprecedented threats from climate change, invasive species, and changing land use. Yet Australia’s laws—including its federal environmental statute, the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (Cth)—are ill-equipped. This chapter assesses the role and contribution of litigation in efforts to protect Australia’s biodiversity. The analysis focuses on legal disputes arising from land clearing, mining, marine species protection, and climate change. Cases have sought to protect iconic native species, including the Tasmanian devil, while also addressing conflict between environmental protection and cultural heritage, such as threats to ecosystems caused by brumbies. The legal basis for the claims includes traditional judicial review grounds and novel conceptions of public duties owed variously to younger generations and to indigenous peoples. The chapter demonstrates that Australian courts have been relatively constrained in protecting biodiversity, due in part to judicial deference to Australia’s legislative and executive branches and the limited direct applicability of international environmental law. Recognition by judges of their role in protecting Australia’s biodiversity is more apparent within specialist courts at the subnational level. Achieving an effective national approach to biodiversity protection may be more attainable due to a change in government at the federal level, although major legal and political challenges remain.

Biodiversity gains and losses: Evidence for homogenisation of Scottish alpine vegetation

Understanding cross-sectoral impacts is important in developing appropriate adaptation strategies to climate change, since such insight builds the capacity of decision-makers to understand the full extent of climate change vulnerability, rather than viewing single sectors in isolation. A regional integrated assessment model that captures interactions between six sectors (agriculture, forests, biodiversity, water, coasts and urban) was used to investigate impacts resulting from a wide range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. Results show that Europe will be significantly influenced by these possible future changes with between 79 and 91 % of indicator-scenario combinations found to be statistically significantly different from the baseline. Urban development increases in most scenarios across Europe due to increases in population and sometimes GDP. This has an indirect influence on the number of people affected by a 1 in 100 year flood which increases in western and northern Europe. Changes in other land uses (intensive farming, extensive farming, forests and unmanaged land) vary depending on the scenario, but food production generally increases across Europe at the expense of forest area and unmanaged land to satisfy increasing food demand. Biodiversity vulnerability and water exploitation both increase in southern and Eastern Europe due to direct effects from climate and indirect effects from changes in land use and irrigation water use. The results highlight the importance of considering non-climatic pressures and cross-sectoral interactions to fully capture climate change impacts at the regional scale.

Simulation of the evolution track of future Production–Living–Ecological Space under the framework of comprehensive assessment of climate change: A case study of Heilongjiang Province, China

Organic carbon pools in mountain soils — Sources of variability and predicted changes in relation to climate and land use changes