Income loss and fertility intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

Abstract

The study aims to examine how pandemic-induced income loss shaped fertility intentions at the pandemic’s onset, examining differences in this association between mothers and non-mothers, and whether effects are similar for intentions to postpone versus forgo childbearing. The research employs a mixed-method approach, combining population-level probabilistic survey data from 1,524 fecund partnered women aged 18-34 with qualitative insights gathered from 56 semi-structured interviews with women aged 18-39 in Pernambuco, Brazil. Multinomial regression models were utilized to distinguish between intentions to postpone, forgo, and get pregnant within six months, exploring associations with pandemic-induced income loss prior to the interview, motherhood status, and parity. We find that most women intended to avoid pregnancy at the onset of the pandemic, with key differences between intentions to postpone versus forgo between mothers versus non-mothers. Further, pandemic-induced income loss and motherhood/parity interacted to define fertility intentions. Whereas income loss did not affect non-mothers, mothers had different intentions depending on income loss, with those experiencing it more likely to postpone or forgo a pregnancy, and mothers of two or more children more likely to forgo a pregnancy altogether. Qualitative analysis corroborated these patterns and provided further nuanced sensitivity of fertility intentions to pandemic-induced income shocks.