Incidence, Risk Factors, and Temporal Trends of Tongue Cancer: A Population‐Based Study

Global Disease Burden From Acute Glomerulonephritis 1990–2019

Vulvar cancer is an uncommon malignancy. Vulvar cancer alarmed the public health problem in terms of the cost of diagnostic and medical treatments and psychical health of females. Our study aims to provide a thorough analysis of the global disease burden, related risk factors and temporal incidence trends of vulvar cancer in population subgroups. Data from Global Cancer Observatory and the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus were used for the vulvar cancer incidence. Age-standardized rates (ASR) were used to depict the incidence of vulvar cancer. The 10-year trend of incidence was assessed using joinpoint regression with average annual percentage change and 95% confidence intervals in various age groups, while its correlations with risk factors were investigated using linear regression. Higher ASR were found in Western Europe (2.4), Northern America (1.9), Northern Europe (1.9), Australia and New Zealand (1.8) and Eastern Africa (1.4). The associated risk factors of higher vulvar cancer incidence were gross domestic product per capita, Human Development Index, higher prevalence of smoking, alcohol drinking, unsafe sex and human immunodeficiency virus infection. The overall trend of vulvar cancer incidence was increasing. An increasing trend was found in older females while a mixed trend was observed in younger females. The disease burden of vulvar cancer follows a bimodal pattern according to its two histologic pathways, affecting women in both developed and developing regions. Smoking cessation, sex education and human papillomavirus vaccination programs should be promoted among the general population. Subsequent studies can be done to explore the reasons behind the increasing trend of vulvar cancer.

BackgroundRetinoblastoma (RB), an aggressive intraocular malignancy, significantly adds to the global disease burden in early childhood. This study offers insights into the global burden of retinoblastoma (RB) in children aged 0–9 years, examining incidence, mortality, and DALYs from 1990 to 2021, across age, sex, location, and SDI levels. It aims to inform health policy, resource allocation, and RB combat strategies.MethodsData were retrieved from newly released Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The measures were estimated both as numerical counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000 population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to rigorously examine temporal trends, estimating the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Spearman’s correlation test was used to examine the relationship between SDI and the burden of RB by location and year.ResultsGlobally, the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardised DALYs rate (ASDR) for RB among young children in 2021 were 0.09 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 0.05 to 0.13], 0.04 (95%UI: 0.03 to 0.06), and 3.65 (95%UI: 2.21 to 4.96), respectively. Despite an overall increasing trend in incidence [AAPC: 0.62; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42 to 0.82], the RB incidence rate demonstrated a significant decline from 2019 to 2021, while mortality and DALYs rate for RB showed overall downward trends. Trends in ASIR varied across regions, with the highest increase in East Asia. Among all GBD regions, only Southern Sub-Saharan Africa exhibited rising trends in mortality and DALYs rate. Gender comparisons showed negligible differences in ASIR, ASMR and ASDR in 2021. Moreover, the highest disease burden was noted in early neonatal (0–6 days), and in children aged 2–4 years at both global and regional levels. Analysis by SDI indicated that RB incidence rates increased with higher SDI levels. In addition, a significantly negative correlation was found between SDI level and both ASMR and ASDR of RB among children aged 0–9 years.ConclusionsFrom 1990 to 2021, RB-related incidence, mortality, and DALYs varied by age and location. Evaluating spatiotemporal trends underscores the impact of health policies and substantial public health interventions on RB control.

Background and Objectives: The epidemiological pattern of the hip fracture burden attributable to falls in Central European countries is still insufficiently known. The aim of this study was to assess the regional and national trends of hip fractures due to falls in Central Europe from 1990 to 2019. Materials and Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, this descriptive epidemiological study presents trends in incidence of and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) from hip fractures due to falls in the region of Central Europe. All estimates (age- and sex-specific rates, and age-standardized rates) were expressed per 100,000. A joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with a corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was calculated. Results: Among all new cases of hip fracture in the population as a whole in Central Europe in 2019, 3.9% in males and 7.0% in females were attributable to falls, while the share of hip fractures due to falls in the population aged 70 and over was 16.9% in males and 20.0% in females. About 400,000 new cases of hip fracture due to falls occurred in the Central European region in 2019 (220,000 among males and 160,000 among females), resulting in 55,000 YLDs (32,000 in females and 22,000 in males). About one-third of all new cases (59,326 in males and 72,790 in females) and YLDs (8585 in males, and 10,622 in females) of hip fractures due to falls were recorded in Poland. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of hip fracture due to falls showed a decreasing tendency in females (AAPC = −1.1%), and an increasing tendency in males (AAPC = 0.1%). Both in males and females, YLDs rates of hip fracture due to falls in the Central European region decreased (AAPC = −1.6% and AAPC = −2.4%, respectively). Conclusions: Hip fracture due to falls represents an important health issue in the Central European region, although incidences and YLDs declined in the most recent decades. However, further efforts to reduce the burden of hip fractures attributed to falls are needed.

BackgroundUrolithiasis is among the most common urologic diagnoses globally, with substantial burden and cost on healthcare systems worldwide. Increasing evidence links urolithiasis with an array of risk factors, including diet and lifestyle trends, noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and obesity, and global warming. ObjectiveTo examine geographic, temporal, and sociodemographic patterns to better understand global disease burden of urolithiasis. Design, setting, and participantsWe extracted data on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to urolithiasis for 21 regions, including 204 countries, for 1990–2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Outcome measurements and statistical analysisData were analyzed at the global, regional, and country levels, as well as stratified by the Socio-Demographic Index. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to measure temporal trends across groups. Results and limitationsGlobally, total cases, DALYs, and deaths attributed to urolithiasis increased over the study period, while the age-standardized rates of these measures decreased. The age-standardized incidence of urolithiasis decreased from 1696.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1358.1–2078.1) cases per 100 000 population in 1990 to 1394.0 (95% CI, 1126.4–1688.2) cases per 100 000 population in 2019, with an AAPC of −0.7 (95% CI [−0.8, −0.6]). Of the GBD regions, Eastern Europe demonstrated a consistently higher ASIR of urolithiasis than all other regions, while the Caribbean had the highest AAPC. This study is limited by the available national and regional data, as described in the original GBD study. ConclusionsWorldwide, total cases, DALYs, and deaths attributed to urolithiasis have increased since 1990, while age-standardized rates have decreased, with demonstrated regional and sociodemographic variation. Multifaceted strategies to address urolithiasis prevention and treatment are necessary. Patient summaryIn this study, we looked at trends in the global burden of stone disease using data from 204 countries from 1990 to 2019. We found that the overall burden has increased, but it varies by age, sociodemographic variables, and geographic region. We conclude that we need adaptable policies that suit the specific needs of the country to address this burden.

Background: Head and neck cancer (HNC) has become a burden in Taiwan especially with oral cancer becoming one of the highest incidence in the world. In this study, we evaluated recent trends in HNC incidence in Taiwan by subsite with projections through 2039. Methods: Data for this analysis included all cases of HNC diagnosed between 1980 and 2014 and reported to the national population-based cancer registry. Incidence rates were stratified by gender and anatomic subsite. Trends in incidence over time were measured using the estimated annual percentage change. Results: Between 1980 and 2014, 125,554 HNC cases were diagnosed with the majority diagnosed with oral cancer and in males. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of HNC increased by 5.4% per year among males and 3.1% among females. During this period, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of world-standardized incidence rates for oral, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers in men increased by 6.9%, 6.1%, 6.0% and 1.3%, respectively compared to women's rate of 3.6%, 3.7%, 1.6% and -0.1%, respectively. Projections show that oral and oropharyngeal cancer in males will continue to rise but then start to decline after 2025 while hypopharyngeal cancer will start to plateau after 2030. Conclusions: Taiwan has one of the highest incidence of HNC. Our results suggest that the increases in HNC incidence in Taiwan may be associated with the patterns of cigarette smoking and betel quid chewing habits in the population and therefore, it is critical to promote and educate the importance of reducing these habits..

International patterns and trends in the brain cancer incidence and mortality: An observational study based on the global burden of disease

Disclosure: G. Flocco: None. A. Cheema: None. M. Munir: None. F. Ahmed: None. A. Zahid: None. H. Ahmad: None. M. Kakakhel: None. M. Ali: None. J. Ikram: None. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major complication of type 1 diabetes (T1D), with its burden rising globally due to aging populations. Despite advancements in diabetes care, the trends in CKD prevalence and incidence among older adults with T1D remain poorly understood. This study leverages Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to provide novel insights into the evolving impact of CKD attributable to T1D in adults aged 55 and older from 1990 to 2021. We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to examine temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of CKD attributable to T1DM between 1990 and 2021. To evaluate these trends, we calculated the Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI), determining statistical significance through p-values. Over the past three decades, the global burden of CKD attributable to T1DM has risen dramatically. In 1990, the global incidence of CKD linked to T1DM was 4,503.14 per 100,000, which surged to 14,729.89 per 100,000 by 2021. Similarly, the global prevalence increased significantly from 401,004.7 per 100,000 in 1990 to 1,087,675 per 100,000 in 2021. The AAPC analysis demonstrated a significant upward trend in both global incidence (AAPC: 1.2908, 95% CI: 1.2599-1.3178, p < 0.000001) and prevalence (AAPC: 0.6397, 95% CI: 0.6125-0.6668, p < 0.000001). The APC analysis revealed several remarkable trends. The global incidence of CKD due to T1DM experienced its most significant surge between 1995 and 2004 (APC: 2.7010, 95% CI: 2.6106-2.7884, p = 0.006399), while the slowest increase occurred from 2019 to 2021 (APC: 0.6099, 95% CI: 0.0217-1.0093, p = 0.044391). In contrast, the prevalence of CKD due to T1DM saw its sharpest growth during 1996-1999 (APC: 2.9191, 95% CI: 2.549-3.176, p < 0.000001), with the most gradual rise recorded between 2005 and 2010 (APC: 0.8331, 95% CI: 0.468-1.018, p < 0.000001). The global burden of CKD attributable to T1DM has increased dramatically over the past three decades, with incidence and prevalence exhibiting significant upward trends. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions and global strategies to address the growing impact of CKD in individuals with T1DM, particularly among aging populations. Presentation: Saturday, July 12, 2025

e22570 Background: Aging into the seventh decade of life marks a pivotal shift in cancer susceptibility, with pancreatic cancer (PC) emerging as one of the most relentless threats to global health. This study utilizes three decades of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to unravel unprecedented insights into the prevalence and incidence of PC among adults aged 70 and older. Methods: We analyzed data from the GBD study to assess the temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of PC from 1990 to 2021. The Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), along with 95% confidence intervals (CI), were utilized to assess the overall trends, with statistical significance evaluated using p-values. Results: Over the past three decades, the global burden of PC has surged significantly. In 1990, the global incidence of PC stood at 45.12 per 100,000, escalating to 54.47 per 100,000 by 2021. Likewise, global prevalence increased from 30.33 per 100,000 in 1990 to 40.60 per 100,000 in 2021, with incidence rates consistently exceeding prevalence, suggesting an accelerating number of new cases of PC worldwide. The AAPC analysis revealed a significant upward trajectory in both global incidence (AAPC: 0.6085, 95% CI: 0.5801, 0.6273 p < 0.000001) and prevalence (AAPC: 0.9467, 95% CI: 0.9188, 0.9659 p < 0.000001) of PC. Following the APC analysis, several notable trends emerged. The global incidence of PC experienced its most substantial increase between 2003 and 2010 (APC: 1.0806, 95% CI: 0.9817, 1.3206 p < 0.000001), while the slowest growth in incidence occurred from 1990 to 2003 (APC: 95% CI: 0.9817, 1.3206 p = 0.000400). Conversely, the global prevalence of pancreatic cancer saw its most pronounced rise between 1998 and 2001 (APC: 2.0389, 95% CI: 1.2005, 2.1962 p < 0.000001), with the slowest increase occurring from 1994 to 1998 (APC: 0.4632, 95% CI: 0.2544, 1.9767 p = 0.001200). Conclusions: The persistent rise in both incidence and prevalence of PC over the past three decades underscores a critical global health challenge, with a marked acceleration in recent years. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions and a deeper understanding of the factors driving this expanding burden, particularly as the incidence consistently outpaces prevalence. Metric Overall 1990 2021 AAPC with 95% CI (1990-2021) INCIDENCE RATES PER 100,000 Global Incidence 45.12 54.47 0.61 (0.58, 0.63) PREVALENCE RATES PER 100,000 Global Prevalence 30.33 40.60 0.95 (0.92, 0.97)

ObjectiveThis study aims to examine the temporal Trends in the burden of lip and oral cavity cancer in China from 1990 to 2021, stratified by age and sex. Key indicators—including prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)—are analyzed and compared with corresponding global metrics.MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database spanning 1990 to 2021, we conducted a systematic analysis of trends in the burden of lip and oral cavity cancer in China and worldwide. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was estimated using Joinpoint regression analysis to quantify the magnitude of temporal trends. Differences in cancer burden across age groups and sexes were evaluated, and the ARIMA model was employed to project future trends. Finally, we conducted a decomposition analysis to determine the percentage contribution of factors affecting the burden of lip and oral cancer.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of lip and oral cavity cancer in China increased from 1.704 to 2.681 per 100,000 population, while the global ASIR rose from 4.270 to 4.880 per 100,000. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) in China increased from 4.168 to 10.158 per 100,000, compared to a rise from 13.888 to 17.706 per 100,000 globally. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in China declined from 1.224 to 1.152 per 100,000, while the global ASMR decreased slightly from 2.454 to 2.424 per 100,000. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) in China fell from 32.086 to 29.205 per 100,000, whereas the global ASDR decreased from 69.266 to 67.714 per 100,000. Between 1990 and 2021, the average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in China were 1.487% for ASIR, 2.899% for ASPR, − 0.187% for ASMR, and − 0.319% for ASDR. In comparison, the corresponding global AAPCs were 0.443%, 0.796%, − 0.029%, and − 0.072%, respectively. Age and sex had a significant impact on the burden of lip and oral cavity cancer, with males consistently exhibiting higher incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs than females. Projections for the next 15 years indicate that the ASIR and ASMR in China will likely stabilize, while the ASPR and ASDR are expected to continue increasing. Globally, the ASMR and ASDR are projected to remain stable, whereas the ASIR and ASPR are anticipated to rise. The decomposition analyses revealed that both population aging and population increase factors exacerbated the burden of lip and oral cancer, whereas epidemiologic changes promoted the number of lip and oral cavity cancer cases but suppressed the increase in the number of deaths and DALYs.ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the incidence and prevalence rates of lip and oral cavity cancer increased in both China and globally, while mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) experienced a slight decline. The burden of the disease was strongly associated with sex and age, with males exhibiting significantly higher incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates than females, and older adults demonstrating substantially higher rates compared to younger age groups. Over the next 15 years, the prevalence and DALY burden in China are projected to increase, while global incidence and prevalence are also expected to rise. Given China’s rapidly aging population, these findings highlight growing public health challenges that call for sustained, coordinated efforts to mitigate the future burden.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12903-025-06839-w.

Global, regional, and national burden of malaria, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021

The epidemiological landscape of multiple myeloma: a global cancer registry estimate of disease burden, risk factors, and temporal trends

BackgroundAlthough falls are the major cause of non-fatal injuries and preventable deaths among Chinese children, comprehensive assessments of the temporal trends in the burden of falls among children aged 0–14 years in China remain scarce. To address this gap, we quantified national and temporal trends in burden of falls among children aged 0–14 years from 1990 to 2021 and projected future trends through 2030.MethodsThe current study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD2021), we extracted crude incidence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to falls along with their corresponding absolute counts for Chinese children aged 0–14 years during 1990–2021. All metrics were stratified by sex and 5-year age group. Age-standardized rates (ASRs), including age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized YLLs rate, age-standardized YLDs rate, and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) for children aged 0–14 years, were recalculated using the World Health Organization’s standard population. Temporal trends were assessed with Joinpoint regression model to compute average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Finally, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed to project ASRs for children aged 0–14 years through 2030.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2021, children aged 0–14 years experienced 163,769,426 incident cases and 255,840 deaths, resulting in a total of 25,085,796 DALYs. The ASIR, ASMR, age-standardized YLLs rate, age-standardized YLDs rate, and ASDR all demonstrated a downward trends with AAPCs of −0.34% (95%CI: −0.39% to −0.28%, P<0.001), −4.18% (95%CI: −4.37% to −4.06%, p < 0.001), −4.24% (95%CI: −4.43% to −4.11%, p < 0.001), −1.16% (95%CI: −1.22% to −1.11%, p < 0.001), −3.68% (95%CI: −3.80% to −3.57%, p < 0.001), respectively. In stratified analysis, similar downward trends were observed aross both sexes and age group of 0–4 years, 5–9 years and 10–14 years. Notably, upward trends were observed in the ASIR from 2010 to 2021 and the age-standardized YLDs rate from 2010 to 2021. Children aged 10–14 years exhibited an upward trend in incidence rate 1990 to 2021. Predictions shows the incidence among children aged 0–4 years is projected to rise, and an increase in YLDs is anticipated among children in both the 0–4 years and 5–9 years age groups.ConclusionThe burden of falls remains a major public challenge among children aged 0–14 years, although its burden at the national level showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized YLDs rate among males, the incidence among children aged 0–4 years and the YLDs among children aged 0–9 years are projected to increase from 2022 to 2030. These findings suggest that mandatory implementation of age-specific fall-prevention protocols in kindergartens and primary schools nationwide and expand the coverage of injury surveillance and implement it nationwide.

232 Background: Lip and oral cavity cancer, which is predominantly of the squamous cell type, is one of the most prevalent cancers of the head and and neck. In oral cavity cancers, the floor or anterior base of the mouth is routinely involved, meanwhile lip tumours are typically found in the lower lip. Majority of the cases are attributable to alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking and although it can be largely prevented through lifestyle modifications, it still poses a great threat due to lack of prompt detection and diagnosis; which is the biggest factor in survival and hence it is imperative to explore its trends and mortality rates. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) was used to extract data for deaths associated with lip and oral cavity cancer attributable to alcohol consumption from 1990-2021. Dataset was stratified globally, continent-wise and by socio-demographic index levels and USA was further stratified into its states. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLL) were assessed. Joinpoint regression was employed to quantify these estimates and calculate average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Results: Globally, age standardized death rates (ASDR) had a slight declining trend for lip and oral cavity cancers from 1990-2021. In 1990, the ASDR was 0.49 (95% UI 0.38 to 0.59) which declined to 0.46 in 2021 (AAPC = -0.18; 95% CI -0.27 to -0.10). The disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were 14.73 in 1990 and dropped to 13.66 in 2021 (AAPC = -0.24; 95% CI -0.31 to -0.18). The age standardized years of life lost (YLL) showed consistent dropping trends during the same timeline (AAPC = -0.26; 95% CI -0.32 to -0.19). Europe and America reported the highest mortality rates in the continental analysis but both had declining trends [(AAPC = -0.93; 95% CI -1.15 to -0.71) and (AAPC = -0.72; 95% CI -0.86 to -0.59) respectively] while Asia showed the sharpest rise (AAPC = 1.17; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.29) and Africa had a slightly upward trend (AAPC = 0.21; 95% CI 0.16 to 0.25). During further analysis of USA we found that the states of District of Columbia, Connecticut and Massachusetts had the highest mortality rates with average ASDR 0.695, 0.464 and 0.461 respectively. An analysis of socio-demographic index levels revealed a progressive rise in mortality rates across low-middle, low and middle SDI regions, in that order, on the other hand high-middle and high SDI regions had negative trends. Conclusions: Globally efforts to minimise deaths from lip and oral cancers has been effective and there is a significant decline in the mortality. Nevertheless, regional imbalances still do exist. Further healthcare interventions, extensive research and preventive measures can contribute in alleviating this health risk.

Objective: We aimed to analyse the trend of incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 and predict the development trend from 2023 to 2030. Methods: Data on incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 were obtained from Shandong Cancer Registry. The incidence, age-specific incidence, mortality and age-specific mortality in different years, sexes and urban and rural areas were calculated, the rates were standardized based on the age composition of the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality was calculated using Joinpoint software. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trend of stomach cancer incidence and mortality from 2023 to 2030. Results: From 2012 to 2022, the stomach cancer age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) showed a decreasing trend. The ASIR decreased from 27.47/100 000 in 2012 to 16.06/100 000 in 2022 (AAPC=-5.10%, P＜0.001), and the ASMR decreased from 17.69/100 000 to 11.09/100 000 (AAPC=-5.52%, P＜0.001). The ASIR and ASMR of male, female, urban and rural population also showed downward trends. The incidence and mortality rates of men were always higher than those of women, and the difference between urban and rural areas is gradually narrowing. In 2022, the ASIR (16.09/100 000 in urban and 16.03/100 000 in rural) and the ASMR (11.10/100 000 in urban and 11.08/100 000 in rural) of stomach cancer between urban and rural areas were nearly identical. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the ASIR of stomach cancer in Shandong would further decrease from 2023 to 2030 (AAPC=-0.51%, P=0.001), but the change tended to be smooth. The incidences in male (AAPC=-1.46%, P=0.010) and rural areas (AAPC=-1.21%, P＜0.001) were still expected to have a little room for decline. The trend of incidences in female and urban areas were not statistically significant. The trend of mortality was consistent with the incidence. Conclusions: The stomach cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong shows a decreasing trend and it is expected to decrease further by 2030. However, the trend tends to be smooth, and the disease burden should be reduced as early as possible for high-risk population and high-risk factors of stomach cancer.