In search of a model procedure for assessing the risk of violence in Polish conditions - Summary of Authors’ research results

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The aim of the article is to analyse the possibilities available to Polish specialists in the process of assessing the risk of violence and accompanying difficulties. In the study, three categories of problems related to the assessment of the violence risk are taken into account: systemic, personal and methodological. In accordance with the conclusions formulated based on the results of the authors’ research, an analysis of the literature and on the recommendations of the creators of internationally recognised tools for assessing the risk of violence, a model procedure for diagnosing and monitoring risk was proposed, aimed at improving the accuracy and effectiveness of assessment in Polish conditions. The authors also formulate recommendations for improving activities at systemic, personal and methodological levels, facilitating the effective and efficient implementation of the model procedure in psychiatric and penitentiary areas.

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Objective: The study undertook an assessment – unique in Polish conditions – of the factors related to higher education differentiating the group of graduates of the Jagiellonian University (JU) in terms of their professional activity in the context of taking up employment or starting self-employment. Research Design & Methods: Lazear’s theory was applied to find study-related entrepreneurship determinants. The study attempted to determine the factors influencing the employment of Jagiellonian University graduates or their self-employment. The following explanatory variables were used during the study: scientific discipline and students’ faculty, professional activity or possibly running a business by the student, mode of study (full-time versus part-time), and scientific and non-scientific activities such as volunteering, undertaking studies abroad, and internships. The analyzes were based on data collected during the alumni career paths research of more than 6000 graduates who completed their studies between 2015 and 2019. Findings: The Mann-Whitney test and parametric t-Student tests showed that graduates of the JU who started a business, as opposed to those who work as employed persons, already set up a business during their studies and then continued it or started other types of business activity. Regarding the two analysed groups of students, there were significant differences in the completed faculty, study mode (full-time versus part-time), student internships, studies, internships abroad, and volunteering. Implications & Recommendations: The results of the analyses can be used by several groups of beneficiaries. Firstly, they can be useful for high school graduates intending to start higher education, as they indicate such disciplines and fields of study, after which the chances of professional success are the highest. The second group interested in the results of this work might be university students, who, based on its results, may undertake additional academic and non-academic activities that could increase their chances of professional success. Thirdly, the management of universities can use the results of research when preparing an educational offer that would be best suited to the needs of the labour market. Contribution & Value Added: The subject of factors differentiating the professional attitudes of university graduates, especially in countries undergoing systemic transformation, is insufficiently explored. Deficiencies in quantitative research based on large sets of data are particularly visible. This article fills this gap by pointing to the factors that significantly affect self-employment or hired work by graduates of the oldest and one of the most renowned universities in Poland.

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From editors
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The aim of this paper is to present the theoretical assumptions which form the basis for Sources of Sport-Confidence Questionnaire SSCQPL. This Questionnaire is used to measure the sources of sport-confidence understood as the athlete’s confidence, connected with the awareness that s/he has the skills and abilities necessary to achieve the success in own discipline (Vealey, 1998). This publication depicts the primary stages of preparation of the linguistic-cultural adaptation of SSCQ to the Polish conditions. Results of the psychometric properties research (such as the theoretical and criterion validity and reliability) are presented. For the needs of the pilot study, 100 participants were examined. They are active athletes, both amateurs and professionals. The theoretical validity and reliability of adapted Questionnaire were confirmed. Correlation with the SES Questionnaire and GSES Questionnaire did not confirm the criterion validity of the SSCQ-PL.

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This study investigates the nature and specificity of the concept of sustainable tourism against the background of the paradigm of sustainable development (with regard to the conditions for the implementation of its practices in Polish conditions). The study assumes the hypothesis that researching sustainable tourism as a category within a new scientific concept—i.e., an emerging paradigm of sustainable development—requires the use of an appropriate scientific methodology. This study, in its essential part, has an overview and theoretical character. A critical analysis of the literature on the subject from books and journals, as well as Internet sources, is used in the study. Documentary and observation methods are applied, and the results of qualitative research based on case study research methodology are presented; thus, the empirical part of the paper has an exploratory nature. Research on sustainable tourism as a category within an emerging paradigm of sustainable development shows that researchers use an appropriate scientific methodology, which is compatible with the interpretive paradigm in the highest degree. In case studies, the research is often limited to the analysis of one example. Due to the prevalence of studies applying qualitative methods, an interpretivist approach is prevalent, while a functionalist approach, associated with quantitative research and model testing, is less frequent.

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Vegetation condition mapping at a landscape‐scale across Victoria
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Vegetation condition mapping at a landscape-scale across Victoria. Graeme R. Newell1, Matt D. White1, Peter Griffioen2 and Michael Conroy3 (1Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Sustainability and Environment, 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, Vic. 3084, Australia. Email: graeme.newell@dse.vic.gov.au; 2Acromap, Pty Ltd, 37 Gloucester Drive, Heidelberg, Vic. 3084, Australia; 3Spatial Information and Infrastructure, Department of Sustainability and Environment, Marland House, 570 Bourke Street, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Australia). Key words: ecological modelling, mapping, native vegetation, neural networks, vegetation condition. Introduction. One of the strongest drivers in conservation planning across southeastern Australia has been information on the level of depletion of remnant native vegetation (i.e. both ‘extent’ and ‘type’, e.g. Regional Forest Agreement process). However, more recently natural resource management (NRM) agencies have also been asked to consider the ‘condition’ or ‘quality’ of native vegetation, and many government agencies at regional, state and federal levels have now instituted policies and requirements to monitor native vegetation condition over time (e.g. DNRE 2002). Concepts, methods of assessment and monitoring of condition in rangelands, arid and semiarid ecosystems have been around for many decades (e.g. Dyksterhuis 1949), and mapping of condition in these environments has become even become routine (e.g. Reeves et al. 2001; Wallace et al. 2004). However, the concepts of ecological condition or quality of native vegetation (or ‘habitat’) in more mesic and temperate systems are still relatively vague and poorly defined (Gibbons & Freudenberger 2006), and maybe considered idiosyncratic when compared to similar concepts applied to agricultural systems, medicine, engineering, etc. (Tongway & Ludwig 1997). Useful attempts to clarify these concepts (McIntyre & Hobbs 1999; Gibbons & Freudenberger 2006), and to develop general and widely applicable methods for scoring vegetation condition or habitat value have been made recently. Methods range from relatively generic scores of habitat structural complexity (e.g. Newsome & Catling 1979), to intricate scoring and modelling approaches applicable to single species (e.g. Habitat Suitability Indices; USFWS 1981). Recent approaches such as ‘Habitat Hectares’ (Parkes et al. 2003) provide rapidly obtained indices of native vegetation condition by using comparisons to reference condition states (i.e. ‘benchmarks’, viz. Hopkins 1999), and are intended to provide NRM practitioners with simple measures of vegetation condition. ‘Habitat Hectares’ values are attributed to a specific site or location on a map. However, the highly variable nature of condition across landscapes means that this information does not necessarily infer the condition of other adjacent sites. The need for a complete map rather than individual points of vegetation condition became obvious to land managers, and resulted in this project to attempt to ‘map’ native vegetation condition at a landscape scale. Maps of native vegetation condition in temperate Australia are not novel (e.g. Coops et al. 1998), but have not been formerly produced at the current spatial scale or across a broad range of vegetation types. This paper highlights the need for maps of native vegetation condition for supporting NRM activities, introduces some recent research to produce a landscape scale vegetation condition map, and considers the current usefulness of these maps for stated NRM aims. Methods. A full explanation of the development and application of the statistical and spatial modelling routines to develop the map is beyond scope of this short paper. The study area comprised an area of more than 9 million ha (∼ 40% Victorian landmass) within the jurisdictions of the Mallee, North-Central, Goulburn-Broken and Northeast Catchment Management Authorities. ‘Habitat Hectare’ condition assessments were available from 1267 pre-existing sites, and these data were supplemented with a further 1641 sites stratified by vegetation type, tenure and patch size across Mallee and Goulburn Broken CMAs. These data were then used as the dependent variable in a ‘neural network’ modelling procedure (viz. Lek & Guégan 1999) that identified relationships between site condition scores and 13 independent variables assembled from a state-wide spatial data library. These variables included vegetation type, climate and lithology, novel indices of tree density derived from an existing statewide tree cover dataset, and a land-use map. The output of this modelling identified relationships between the 13 independent variables and site condition assessed in the field, with a strong positive correlation evident between the predicted and observed scores explaining 51% of the variance. The modelled ‘neural network’ relationships were then applied to ‘unknown’ sites or cells (30 m2) with recognized extant native terrestrial vegetation to form a condition map that was coincident with extant native vegetation. Data from a further 541 sites were then collected to validate the final map, thus creating a total pool of 3449 site assessments used to develop the map (Fig. 1a). (a) Distribution of Survey Sites with northern Victorian CMAs (Blue, pre-existing data; Orange, new data. Total = 3449 sites). (b) Output model of native vegetation condition. (c) Example output of model at proposed operational scale (1:100 000). Results. Figure 1(b) provides an example of the coverage of the native vegetation condition map across northern Victoria, and clearly shows a gradient from relative good condition predicted in the large Mallee blocks in the north-west of the State, to poorer native vegetation condition predicted for more fragmented and more intensively farmed landscapes on the inland slopes and plains of central and north-eastern Victoria. Although this ‘regional scale’ view of ecological condition is somewhat interesting, it is not particularly informative for planning local scale NRM activities. Given the constraints of the data and final map we considered that the map is probably most useful at scales of 1:100 000 and above. Figure 1(c) shows an area around Wangaratta at this scale, and clearly shows varying levels of predicted condition across the Killawarra Range in the north, Warby Ranges in the central region, the riverine systems along the Ovens River, and the fragmented remnant vegetation. This diagram demonstrates the ability of the map to represent condition across various landforms and vegetation configurations, but also highlights the inability of the map to clearly distinguish relatively subtle differences in predicted condition at the ‘paddock’ scale. Discussion. Our primary aim was to produce a map that would assist NRM staff in making decisions for conservation investments across northern Victoria. Arguably, this aim has been met, but how good is the model and resulting map? Considering the geographical scale of the project, the range of bioregions and biological systems involved, and the range of condition states, we believe that the map aligns well with existing broad scale appraisals of vegetation condition (e.g. National Land & Water Resources Audit 2001; Department of Natural Resources and Environment 2002). However, there are always strengths and weaknesses. In constructing this broad-scale map, we became aware of the difficulties and challenges to developing accurate models of vegetation condition. First, the sampling of the full range of condition states is important, and the scarcity of high quality sites in lowland southeastern Australia can impact on the model and subsequent map. Second, the rarity of ‘good’ sites means that the current model has a ‘flat’ response. The model tends to overestimate the scores for sites in poorer condition and conversely underestimate scores for sites in very good condition, while providing the most statistically robust predictions within the mid-range of condition states. Third, the quality and consistency of field data are critical (including GPS location), and we had to exclude a large proportion of pre-existing field data from modelling because of obvious errors. Fourth, GIS surfaces used as independent variables often have coarse resolution and can result in maps with similar properties. This coupled with the inappropriate use of zoom function on GIS and image analysis software can often imply false precision when viewing maps. For these and a number of other reasons (e.g. ‘Habitat Hectare’ condition assessments are intentionally coarse, and were not intended for the fine scale temporal or spatial monitoring of condition; see Parkes et al. 2003, 2004), we believe that the current map is unlikely to provide the accuracy and precision necessary to (i) detect differences in condition between small parcels of land suitable for property or statutory planning purposes (i.e. ‘paddock’ level); and (ii) monitor acute and subtle changes in condition at fine spatial scales and over short time frames (e.g. political and funding cycles). Nevertheless, the stated objectives, policies and requirements of various Government agencies to monitor native vegetation condition over time remain. Whereas this may be possible using modelling approaches applied solely at fine scales, this will limit the widespread use of the approach. There are currently no substitutes for site inspections and targeted data collection when monitoring site condition, and making planning and conservation management decisions at fine scales. Modelling the condition of native vegetation across the Australian temperate zone is in its infancy, and we can anticipate that emerging technologies, more ecologically relevant GIS data, and remotely sensed datasets may allow maps at finer scales to be produced in the future. Despite this list of limitations, the model does have a number of strengths. We believe that the map does provide important insights into patterns of native vegetation condition at landscape scales, and is novel in its representation of the condition of native vegetation across a large area of temperate Australia. We believe that the most appropriate use of the map currently is to augment other spatial expressions of landscape attributes (e.g. relative rarity of vegetation types, etc.) and to assist in the identification of locations where NRM activities are most likely to deliver effective conservation outcomes (Higgins 2006). The use of vegetation condition mapping for other purposes will also evolve and become apparent with future improvements.

  • Dissertation
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MODELLING AND SYSTEMATIC ASSESSMENT OF MARITIME CONTAINER SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS
  • Jan 11, 2019
  • Chengpeng Wan

Maritime container supply chains (MCSCs) is exposed to various risks arising from both internal operations and the external environment, and the increasing complexity of the modern global logistics system makes the situation even worse, thus causing a significant challenge to the effective risk management of MCSCs. However, systematic studies on this topic are relatively few. In view of this, this study aims to explore and analyse various MCSC risks, develop suitable risk assessment methods, and evaluate the overall performance of MCSCs from a systematic perspective, so as to ensure the safety, reliability, and resilience of MCSCs. This research starts with the identification and classification of all possible risk factors that may be involved in an MCSC based on a comprehensive literature review, and the research results are further validated through a Delphi expert survey. The identified risk factors are then analysed, screened, and assessed in detail. The novelty of this study lies not only on the risk assessment of MCSCs under an uncertain environment from a supply chain level but also on the consideration of the impact of risk condition of each individual MCSC on the overall performance of the entire container supply network. The research results will provide useful insights and valuable information for both researchers and practitioners on the risk analysis and assessment of MCSCs, which is beneficial to different types of stakeholders involved in the maritime shipping industry. The work is also able to provide a theoretical foundation for risk-based decision making and shipping route optimisation in further work. Although the risk assessment methods are presented on the basis of the specific context in MCSCs, it is believed that, with domain-specific knowledge and data, they can also be tailored for a wide range of applications to evaluate the reliability and performance of other supply chain systems, especially where a high level of uncertainty is involved.

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  • Research Article
  • 10.25198/2077-7175-2021-1-54
Анализ и прогнозирование финансовых рисков розничных торговых сетей
  • Jan 1, 2021
  • Intelligence. Innovations. Investment
  • R.S Smagin + 1 more

The relevance of the problem under study is due to the fact that, despite the many works devoted to the theoretical and applied aspects of risk research, the specifics of the formation of financial risks in the activities of retail trade networks have not been sufficiently studied. In particular, there is no methodology and practical recommendations for quantitative risk assessment using statistical methods that allow to identify trends and patterns in the dynamics of risk indicators, to consider external and internal risk factors, the results of which should be used as a basis for developing measures to reduce the risk of retail trade. networks. The aim of the work is to improve the methodology for assessing financial risks based on methods of statistical, economic and financial analysis. The article presents the results of a quantitative assessment of financial risks according to the approach developed and tested on the data of the retail trade network “Magnit”. For a quantitative assessment of the financial risks of a retail trade network, the authors proposed a system of five profitability indicators. The analysis of trends and patterns in the dynamics of profitability indicators, as well as factors influencing them, was carried out using one-dimensional and multidimensional data sets. Forecasts of profitability indicators are not contradictory and indicate the presence of a risk of losses, therefore, a detailed assessment of financial risks was carried out. It was revealed that the indicators of profitability of the retail trade network “Magnit” in the analyzed period had a statistically significant relationship with the indices of the physical volume of retail trade and consumer prices, as well as the number of economic entities in retail trade. The assessment of the financial condition of the organization by indicators of financial stability and a comprehensive assessment by the five-factor model of E. Altman are given. The scientific novelty of the work consists in improving the methodology for assessing financial risks based on statistical, economic and financial methods of analysis, as well as developing proposals for reducing financial risks for network trading organizations. The proposed methodology and research results are of interest to decision makers in network trade organizations, regulatory bodies at the regional and federal levels. Prospects for further research on the issues of assessing and predicting financial risks of retail chains consist in a more detailed study of external factors, in particular, legal restrictions, changes in the level and structure of consumer demand due to the pandemic that began in 2020.

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