In conversation with Alfred Brendel

Prenatal diagnosis of fetal congenital cystic adenomatoid malformation of the lung using three-dimensional ultrasound: Comparison between the 20th and 21st centuries

Prenatal diagnosis of fetal gastroschisis using three-dimensional ultrasound: Comparison between the 20th and 21st centuries

Carbon, nitrogen, and water response to climate and land use changes in Pennsylvania during the 20th and 21st centuries

Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are robust results of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In spite of these successes, model-to-model variability and biases that are small in first order climate responses, however, have considerable implications for climate predictability especially when multi-model means are used. We show that most climate simulations of the 20th and 21st century A2 scenario performed with CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3) models have deficiencies in simulating the global atmospheric moisture balance. Large biases of only a few models (some biases reach the simulated global precipitation changes in the 20th and 21st centuries) affect the multi-model mean global moisture budget. An imbalanced flux of −0.14 Sv exists while the multi-model median imbalance is only −0.02 Sv. Moreover, for most models the detected imbalance changes over time. As a consequence, in 13 of the 18 CMIP3 models examined, global annual mean precipitation exceeds global evaporation, indicating that there should be a ‘leaking’ of moisture from the atmosphere whereas for the remaining five models a ‘flooding’ is implied. Nonetheless, in all models, the actual atmospheric moisture content and its variability correctly increases during the course of the 20th and 21st centuries. These discrepancies therefore imply an unphysical and hence ‘ghost’ sink/source of atmospheric moisture in the models whose atmospheres flood/leak. The ghost source/sink of moisture can also be regarded as atmospheric latent heating/cooling and hence as positive/negative perturbation of the atmospheric energy budget or non-radiative forcing in the range of −1 to +6 W m−2 (median +0.1 W m−2). The inter-model variability of the global atmospheric moisture transport from oceans to land areas, which impacts the terrestrial water cycle, is also quite high and ranges from 0.26 to 1.78 Sv. In the 21st century this transport to land increases by about 5% per century with a model-to-model range from 1 to 13%. We suggest that this variability is weakly correlated to the land–sea contrast in air temperature change of these models. Spatially heterogeneous forcings such as aerosols contribute to the variability in moisture transport, at least in one model. The polewards shifts of dry zones in climate simulations of the 21st century are also assessed. It is shown that the multi-model means of the two subsets of models with negative and positive imbalances in the atmospheric moisture budget produce spatial variability in the dry zone positions similar in size to the spatial shifts expected from 21st century global warming. Thus, the selection of models also affects the multi-model mean dry zone extension. In general, we caution the use of multi-model means of E − P fields and suggest self-consistency tests for climate models.

The recent evolution of continental runoff is still an open question. A related and controversial question is the attribution of this change and its consequences on our predictions of the behavior of future runoff. Here, the Land Surface Model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems is used to perform a set of transient simulations of the runoff from 1900 to 2100. We first show that the model's simulated runoff increases for the 20th century from a global point of view as well as its geographical pattern changes are close to the observations made in this paper. Moreover this trend is simulated to increase further during the 21st century under the SRES A2 scenario. We have designed a set of simulations to test the impact on global runoff evolution of three factors: climate, stomatal conductance, and vegetation growth, all sensitive to CO2 increase. A complete factor‐separation analysis of the influence of these three factors and of their interactions shows that climate change largely drives the 20th and 21st century runoff increase. The other two factors (stomatal conductance and vegetation growth) play a minor role in the 20th century runoff trend but we show that these contributions increase for the 21st century simulations. Although the interactions between the factors also plays a negligible role in the 20th century global runoff increase, our results show that they become significant during the 21st century, usually reducing the direct effect of each factor. However, our study does not reveal any important negative feedback to counteract the effect of climate warming on the hydrological cycle.

Background: Antiepileptic drugs are the cornerstone of treatment in patients with epilepsy. AIM: to examine the spectrum of antiepileptic drugs across different generations and trends in their use over the 20th and 21st centuries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted in 2022–2024. Study population: patients with a verified diagnosis of epilepsy. Study focus: antiepileptic drug therapy. Patients with a verified diagnosis of epilepsy were divided into 2 groups: group 1 included patients from the 20th century with epilepsy duration of more than 20 years as of 2020; group 2 included patients from the 21st century with epilepsy duration of less than 20 years. The history of antiepileptic drugs use was evaluated by generation: first-generation (traditional/older), second-generation (newer), and third-generation (most recent). The frequency of first-generation antiepileptic drugs use was calculated both as a percentage and as the mean number of antiepileptic drugs per patient for the 20th and 21st centuries. RESULTS: The study included 60 patients: group 1 comprised 28 patients and group 2, 32 patients. The mean age and disease duration in the overall cohort were 31.5±9.3 years and 19.5±9.1 years, respectively; the male-to-female ratio was 1:1. The mean number of antiepileptic drugs used per patient over time was 5.1±2.3 (range, 2–10). First-generation antiepileptic drugs were used in 61% of patients in group 1 and 42% in group 2; second-generation in 32% and 46%, respectively; and third-generation in 7% and 12%, respectively. The mean number of first-generation antiepileptic drugs per patient across the cohort was 2.2±1.5, with group-specific means of 3.1 in group 1 and 1.3 in group 2. Barbiturates accounted for 24% of prescriptions in group 1 and 5% in group 2; benzodiazepines, for 5% and 0%, respectively; valproates, for 26% in both groups; and carbamazepine, for 13% and 8%, respectively. CONCLUSION: An increased use of newer-generation antiepileptic drugs (anticonvulsants) was observed in the 21st century, with a marked decline in older-generation drugs, primarily due to decreased use of barbiturates and benzodiazepines. Valproic acid and carbamazepine have maintained their roles in epilepsy management.

We are still in the early stage of 21st century and the two pandemics Spanish flu and COVID-19 are the presentative pandemics in 20th and 21st centuries, respectively. The Spanish flu pandemic raged from 1918 to 1920, just after World War I. It was the first influenza pandemic worldwide; since then, humankind has experienced many such pandemics. Spanish flu is caused by a virus. However, since virology was not well established at that time, the new clinical system was needed to cope with “unknown pathogen”; during the pandemic, high infection rates were recorded, but our predecessors managed to somehow tackle the situation. With respect to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, both the virus and its genome were clarified quickly. Nonetheless, it has turned out to be quite an intriguing infectious disease, with the high rates in developed countries, such as the US and those in Europe, which have aging societies, and low rates in developing countries such as those in Africa, where the population is largely young. Here, I compared and discuss the two pandemics, COVID-19 and Spanish flu.

ABSTRACTThe climate of the European region during 20th and 21st centuries in terms of Feddema's (2005) annual and seasonal climate characteristics is analysed. Observed data for the 20th century are taken from the CRU TS 1.2 data set. The projected data for the 21st century are obtained using simulation results of nine regional climate models run in the scope of the ENSEMBLES project. In the analysis, the European region is arbitrarily divided into three sub‐regions: the northern (72°–55°N), middle (55°–42°N) and southern (42°–35°N) zones. We focused on the analysis of the relationships between Feddema's climatic characteristics and the main geographical constraints (latitude, longitude, relief and land‐locked waterbodies). It is shown that Feddema's climatic maps agree well with the expected effects of the main geographical controls. Climate type/geographical control dependence is very strong in the upland coastal regions of the Atlantic Ocean, that is, in the Norwegian Alps, the Scottish Highlands and the Galician Massif Mountains. A characteristic seasonal‐type change can be observed in these regions: The seasonality of P changes through the seasonality of both P and T into the seasonality of T. This behaviour is registered by all model simulations in both the 20th and 21st centuries. The Atlantic Ocean–relief–longitude interplay effect on Feddema's climate types can be observed in all three zones. The uplands in Europe determine climate on the local scale. This upland effect is stronger when it is combined with the effect of extensive land‐locked water bodies. This relationship is obtained by all model simulations in both the 20th and 21st centuries. Lastly, the area heterogeneity of the European region's climate is well reproduced. The observations and the modelling tools show that the climate became and will become warmer and dryer during the course of the 20th and 21st centuries.

The aims of this study are to investigate the structure of four historical Moroccan cedar softwood samples of different aging time duration (16th, 17th, 19th, 21st centuries) and compare among these four samples, using two analytical methods, FTIR and XRD, in order to confirm some structural changes and determine the degree of deterioration. The pronounced hemicellulose deterioration was highlighted by a breakdown of IR acetyl groups at 1738 cm−1 from the 19th century sample until aged ones. The cellulose XRD crystallinity index showed an important decrease from recent to oldest samples (51.8 to 20.2%) justifying the damages mainly in the two oldest samples (17th and 16th centuries), also confirmed by FTIR. The alteration of lignin was manifested in the case of the two ancient samples (16th and 17th centuries), proven by the decrease in IR bands related to aromatic nuclei (1595, 1500, 1230 cm−1) evolving towards a new diconjugate C=O formers at 1647 cm−1 (quinone, Ar-CO-Ar, Ar-CO-C=C). For accurate elucidation, the data of two combined techniques were compared and correlated. The obtained results depended on the part of the wood exposed to weathering effects (internal or external) and were influenced by both extended time of aging and effects of natural deterioration agents. The effects of natural aging were investigated in four historical Moroccan cedar softwood samples (16th, 17th, 19th, 21st centuries) using two analytical tools: FTIR and XRD. The pronounced hemicellulose deterioration was highlighted by a breakdown of IR acetyl groups at 1738 cm−1 and declines in the absorption signal at 1268 cm−1 from the 19th century sample until aged ones. The cellulose XRD crystallinity index (CrI) estimation showed an important decrease from recent to oldest samples (51.8 to 20.2%) justifying the damages mainly in the two oldest samples (17th and 16th centuries). These data were also confirmed by FTIR showing a significant reduction in both area profiles of C-O-C (1150–1000 cm−1) and C-H crystalline cellulosic bands (1375, 1318, and 1268 cm−1), respectively. The lignin alteration in both old samples (16th and 17th centuries) was proven by the decrease in IR aromatic skeleton (1595, 1500, and 1230 cm−1) evolving towards a new diconjugate C=O formers at 1647 cm−1 (quinone, Ar-CO-Ar, Ar-CO-C=C). To determine the structural difference and the degree of deterioration, the IR area of C=O band intensities ranging from 1550 to 1800 cm−1 was exploited. For accurate elucidation, the data of two combined techniques were compared and correlated. The obtained results depended on the part of the wood (internal or external) exposed to weathering effects and were influenced by both extended time of aging and effects of natural deterioration agents.

This article considers the aspects of agriculture of the Nizhegorodskaya gubernia in the 19th and 21st centuries. It utilizes information contained in historical materials from the reports of the Nizhny Novgorod expedition under the leadership of V.V. Dokuchaev, as well as data on areas of cultivated crops in 2006. In the 19th century, the types of cultivated crops, the planted area, and the proportion of fertilized arable land largely depended on the composition of the soil cover and meteorological conditions, as well as on the harvest of the previous years. In the 21st century, there were no notable influence of differences in natural conditions, the share of fertilized arable land in different parts of the region was practically the same, and it did not depend on the composition of the soil cover.

In many climate model simulations using realistic, time‐varying climate change forcing agents for the 20th and 21st centuries, the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) weakens in the 21st century, with little change in the 20th century. Here we use a comprehensive climate model to explore the impact of various climate change forcing agents on the THC. We conduct ensembles of integrations with subsets of climate change forcing agents. Increasing greenhouse gases – in isolation – produce a significant THC weakening in the late 20th century, but this change is partially offset by increasing anthropogenic aerosols, which tend to strengthen the THC. The competition between increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols thus produces no significant THC change in our 20th century simulations when all climate forcings are included. The THC weakening becomes significant several decades into the 21st century, when the effects of increasing greenhouse gases overwhelm the aerosol effects.

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860–2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20th century and projections during the 21st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080–2099 relative to a base period of 1986–2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.

The paper is devoted to the issues of conceptualization of legal development in the 20th and 21st centuries. The paper investigates social relations that determined the global law evolution in the 20th century, as well as changes in macroregulation in the first quarter of the century under consideration. The subject matter of the analysis covers theoretical understanding of the development vectors in the essence of law at the turn of the last two centuries.As a scientific hypothesis, the author puts forward the statement regarding regulatory specificity and a special strategic role of the 20th century for subsequent legal development. Proving this hypothesis, the author structures the directions of global transformation of social essence and social interrelations of law in the preceding period. The author also shows that these changes have led to the rise of a systemic postclassical legal tradition. The author has described its characteristics and the role in the formation of a new legal identity of the 21st century. The paper also examines the signs of novelty of the law of the present century. The author determines the features of its regulatory individuality generated by technological changes. It is concluded that the novelty of the law of the present century is preconditioned by the combination of Postmodern and the era of introduction of technological regulators.The paper shows the directions of formation of regulatory individuality of the 21st century, its contradictions related to the legal adaptation of a new technological order. It is concluded that the legal regulation moves towards inclusion patterns of nature and new biological and virtual states of the man in its immediate subject matter. The legal complex integrates the methodology of technology and the artificial language of technology, which results in providing a significant insight into the boundaries of social and technical norms.The paper questions the possible rupture of the legal tradition, which the 21st century is bringing, the factors of its aggravation, including the pandemic. The assumption is formulated that a new law arises in the system of innovative interrelations in the technological sphere that leads to the restructuring of institutions of law and legal relations, as well as to the formation of new value properties of law—its syncreticism, integration of the individual and the general, non-subjectivity, non-objectivity, public-private permeability, anthropomorphism.

In seeking to explain why poor countries tend to choose policies that tax agriculture relative to manufacturing while rich countries do the opposite, archetypical parameters for a poor agrarian economy and a rich industrial one are inserted in a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the medium-term effects on income distribution of policies that distort the relative prices of tradables. The model includes a non-tradables sector and intermediate inputs, realistic features that ensure even greater skewness in the distributional effects of protection than simpler models suggest. The magnitude of the results helps explain the tendency for countries to change gradually from taxing to subsidizing agriculture relative to manufacturing as their economies develop. The paper draws out the implications of the analysis for agricultural and trade policy reform in the 1990s.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Company capital is essential in running business and creating value added for the stakeholders, including economy. How the view on company’s capital structure has evolved from theoretical perspective in the 20th century is needed to be assessed, in order to determine what concepts and theories, if any are relevant in the 21st century. Many theories have competed their way and transformed during the 20th century, while some, i.e. trade-off, signaling and stakeholder theories are still relevant in the 21st century. There are also new trends in the 21st century, new terms and quests shifting from determining and analysing optimal company’s capital structure to sustainable finance, taxonomy and also sustainability in capital structure. Therefore, the aim of this research: to establish existing main theories impacting and analyzing company’s capital structure and to examine the theoretical shift of the theories based on the needs in the 21st century. Authors defined company’s capital structure and determined that during the years 1989–2020, number of research publications has grown significantly, thus validating the need to reassess theoretical background of capital structure theories in the 20th century, as well as to help to determine the trends still relative and emerging from the theoretical and practical aspects to company’s capital structure in the 21st century.