Improving Intelligence Analysis: Harnessing Intuition and Reducing Biases by Means of Structured Methodology

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe essence of intelligence is to reduce ambiguity for decision makers by providing understanding. Contemporary armed conflicts present an intelligence challenge since not only do they contain secrets and mysteries but complexities as well. Impaired by a historical preference for intuitive reasoning and methodological inertia, the intelligence community has often failed to reveal and understand the complexities inherent in these conflicts, let alone forecast future developments. Key reasons are that inductive reasoning and the biases derived from heuristics tend to lead to faulty judgements. A mitigating solution is to make use of a comprehensive intelligence analysis methodology, one that combines collaborative use of structured analytic techniques, creativity, critical thinking, and sensemaking, in order to harness intuition and reduce biases. Even though this structured methodology cannot prevent all intelligence failures, it will, however, ensure objectivity, traceability, and integrity, and thereby helps reducing decision makers’ ambiguity by making uncertain estimates less uncertain.