Improving energy system design with optimization models by quantifying the economic granularity gap: The case of prosumer self-consumption in Germany

Abstract

Energy system models are widely used to inform the political decisions required to successfully mitigate climate change in the energy sector. The energy system optimization models (ESOMs) used to identify cost-minimal transformation pathways assume the perfect behavior of market participants from a central planner’s perspective. Neglecting the decision-making under uncertainties or biased perceptions and attitudes leads to inaccurate assumptions regarding the requirements of a successful energy transition. In particular, ESOMs underestimate the required capacities for power generation, storage, and transmission compared with real-world energy systems, a phenomenon known as the “economic granularity gap”. Agent-based models (ABMs) are helpful tools for capturing the behavior of market actors. Hence, attempts have been made to identify and alleviate this phenomenon through the coupling of ESOMs and ABMs. In this paper, we propose an automated workflow for such model coupling and quantify the economic granularity gap for the case of photovoltaic-prosumer self-consumption. Our results show that the current business models and regulatory frameworks affecting prosumer self-consumption patterns require the adaptation of cost-minimal energy system designs. However, if correctly implemented, instruments such as dynamic tariffs could narrow the economic granularity gap, shifting real-world energy systems closer to their ideal counterparts.