Improving County Sawlog Removal Population Estimates using Historical and Distance-Based Mill Procurement Data in the Southern US

Using historical data on early settlers to the United States, this paper tests and confirms the “Culture of Honor” hypothesis by socio-psychologists Dov Cohen and Richard Nisbett (1994, 1996). This hypothesis argues that the high prevalence of homicides in the US South stems from the fact that it was a frontier region settled by people whose economy was based on herding: the Scotch-Irish. Herding societies develop cultures of honors for reasons having to do with their precariousness: violence is a necessary condition to preserve a reputation for toughness and deter animal theft. Using historical census data on waves of settlers from Europe and relating contemporaneous violence to early Scotch-Irish settlers, this paper provides a test of the link between Scotch-Irish settlers and the culture of honor. The results confirm that high numbers of Scotch-Irish immigrants to the US South by 1790 are associated with higher homicide rates today, including homicides by white offenders. Similar results do not hold for different origins of migrants or other violent crime or offenses. The effect is stronger in counties with high headcounts of pigs and sheep in the 19th century, confirming the herding origin of the culture of honor. An important contribution of this paper is to suggests an instrument for violence, based on past economic occupations and ecological suitability for herding vs. farming.

In turfgrass breeding, drought resistance is a primary trait for improvement due to scarcity and reduced quality of water for irrigation. Therefore, in 2010, the turfgrass breeding programs at six public universities joined efforts to address these challenges by cross evaluating breeding lines for the most economically significant warm‐season turfgrass species in the southern United States through a United States Department of Agriculture‐National Institute for Food and Agriculture Specialty Crop Research Initiative funded project. Three breeding cycles were associated with three completed (2010–2014, 2014–2019, and 2019–2024) collaborative grant projects, but the efficiency of this partnership in terms of gains from selection has not been measured. Our objectives were to (1) estimate the expected and realized genetic gain for drought resistance and turfgrass quality for three breeding cycles, (2) compare cultivars developed with support of the projects versus standard cultivars in a historical data analysis, and (3) compare genetic gain for traits assessed visually versus using small unmanned aircraft systems imagery, both in drought and non‐drought environments. For these purposes, historical data were investigated with a retrospective analysis of project trials evaluated 2011–2024. Our findings for the realized genetic gain demonstrated progress in enhancing drought resistance in bermudagrass, St. Augustinegrass, seashore paspalum, and zoysiagrass. In addition, notable positive increments for this trait were documented for each cycle compared to the standard cultivars, particularly in bermudagrass, St. Augustinegrass, and zoysiagrass. While heritability was higher for visually assessed traits, genetic increments were more pronounced for imagery‐assessed traits.

We modeled the effects of afforestation and deforestation on carbon cycling in forest floor and soil from 1900 to 2050 throughout 13 states in the southern United States. The model uses historical data on gross (two-way) transitions between forest, pasture, plowed agriculture, and urban lands along with equations describing changes in carbon over many decades for each type of land use change. Use of gross rather than net land use transition data is important because afforestation causes a gradual gain in carbon stocks for many decades, while deforestation causes a much more rapid loss in carbon stocks. In the South-Central region (Texas to Kentucky) land use changes caused a net emission of carbon before the 1980s, followed by a net sequestration of carbon subsequently. In the Southeast region (Florida to Virginia), there was net emission of carbon until the 1940s, again followed by net sequestration of carbon. These results could improve greenhouse gas inventories produced to meet reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Specifically, from 1990 to 2004 for the entire 13-state study area, afforestation caused sequestration of 88 Tg C, and deforestation caused emission of 49 Tg C. However, the net effect of land use change on carbon stocks in soil and forest floor from 1990 to 2004 was about sixfold smaller than the net change in carbon stocks in trees on all forestland. Thus land use change effects and forest carbon cycling during this period are dominated by changes in tree carbon stocks.

The 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) fundamentally changed the distribution of electoral power in the US South. We examine the consequences of this mass enfranchisement of Black people for the use of the carceral state—police, the courts, and the prison system. We study the extent to which white communities in the US South responded to the end of Jim Crow by increasing the incarceration of Black people. We test this with new historical data on state and county prison intake data by race (~1940–1985) in a series of difference-in-differences designs. We find that states covered by Section 5 of the VRA experienced a differential increase in Black prison admissions relative to those that were not covered and that incarceration varied systematically in proportion to the electoral threat posed by Black voters. Our findings indicate the potentially perverse consequences of enfranchisement when establishment power seeks—and finds—other outlets of social and political control.

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous United States, and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the United States where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data are used to calibrate model parameters and to determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern United States and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western United States. Crop yields typically increase, except for winter wheat in the southern United States and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and in direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

others 2003). Two to five generations occur annually, depending on the prevailing climate (Berisford 1988, Fettig The Nantucket pine tip moth, Rhyncionia frustrana (Comstock) and others 2000a, Yates and others 198 1). Generations are (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a common pest of pine plantations usually distinct, but considerable overlap may occur in throughout the Southern United States. The objectives of this study were to predict the phenology of R. frustrana populations regions with as few as three generations (Berisford 1988). throughout the Western Gulf region, and to provide optimal spray periods for locations that have three or four generations annually. Bivoltine populations are found in most locations north of The thermal requirements necessary to complete a generation were ~ a r ~ l a n d ( ~ a s h o m b and others 1978, Powell and Miller obtained from published data, and used in conjucrion with historical temperature data to model phenology throughout the region. Four 1978, Uates 1960), and throughout the mountain province generations were predicted to occur annually throughout many of of Virginia and North Carolina (Berisford and Kulman 1967, the pine producing regions of Louisiana, northeastern Texas, and Fettig and others 2000a, Lewis and others 1970). Three southern Arkansas. Three generations were predicted for the Ozark generations occur in much of the southern Piedmont and Ouachita hfountain ranges in Arkansas. Five generations were predicted for extreme southern portions of Louisiana and Plateau (Berisford and others 1992, Fettig and others throughout southeastern Texas. Spray timing prediction values were 2000a), and in the Coastal Plain of Virginia and parts of also obtained from published data and used to predict optimal spray North Carolina (Berisford and I(u1man 1967, Fettig and periods based on 5-day increments for each location where either Berisford 1999, Fettig and others 2000a). Four three or four generations occurred. Tables containing the predicted optimal spray dates are provided for numerous locations within each are reported for the Coastal Plain of Georgia (Berisford and state. Validations were conducted in Lousiana and east Texas to others 1992), South Carolina (Berisford and others 1992, determine the effectiveness of this technique to achieve adequate Gargiullo and others 1985, Moreira and others 19941, spray timing. There was 57 percent agreement between the optimal Alabama (Fettig and others 2000a), Mississippi (Fettig and spray periods and field-determined spray dates based on insecticide efficacy studies. Land managers who use contact insecticides, such others 2000a), and in southern California, where the insect as pyrethroids, can use these data for optimizing spray effectiveness was accidentally introduced (Malinoski and Paine 1988). within the Western Gulf region. This paper serves as a companion to Apparently, five generations occur in extreme southern a previously published work for the Southeastern United States ~ i b r g i a (Fettig and others 2000a, Ross and others 1989), (Fettig and others 2000a). and thus completes phenology and optimal spray period descriptions for R , frustrana throughout the extreme southern Alabama and Mississippi (Fettig and Southern United States. others 2000a), perhaps along the Gulf Coast (Uates and others 1981), and in northern Florida (Yates and others

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous United States, and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the United States where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data are used to calibrate model parameters and to determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern United States and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western United States. Crop yields typically increase, except for winter wheat in the southern United States and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and in direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

Historic patterns of racialized oppression, discrimination, and prejudice have been linked to contemporary levels of racialized inequality. Such patterns are thought to be created and maintained through a series of institutions aimed at limiting access to resources for some while opening doors for others. It is expected that patterns of historical racialized inequality are the by-product of a historical lack of investment in the cultural capital of the local community, which later manifests itself in the form of low levels of human development, both in relational and absolute terms. In order to test this pattern in the American South, this link is tested using historical and contemporary data from the US Census Bureau, the National Institute for Literacy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Center for Disease Control, the Historical American Lynching Project, and the Negro Participation Survey. Spatially-centered nested regression models provide support for this thesis through the identification of links to persistent patterns of underdevelopment in counties with a history of low levels of non-white education, school desegregation, racialized group mobilization, agricultural means of production, and a history of oppression through lynchings.

Upper extremity (UE) fractures are a common reason for emergency department (ED) visits, but recent data on their epidemiology are lacking. This study aimed to describe the incidence, demographics, patient characteristics, and associated health care factors of UE fractures, hypothesizing that they would remain prevalent in the ED setting. Using the Nationwide ED Sample database, patients presenting to the ED with UE fractures in 2016 were identified, and population estimates were used to calculate incidence rates. Data on insurance status, trauma designation, cost, and teaching status were analyzed. The study identified 2 118 568 patients with UE fractures, representing 1.5% of all ED visits in 2016. Men accounted for 54.2% of UE fractures, with phalangeal fractures being most common. Distal radius and/or ulna fractures were most common in women (30.4%). The greatest proportion of UE fractures (23.2%) occurred in patients aged 5 to 14 years (1195.5 per 100 000). Nontrauma centers were the most common treating institutions (50.4%), followed by level I (19.5%), II (15.3%), and III (12.8%) centers. The greatest proportion of fractures (38.3%) occurred in the southern United States. Emergency department cost of treatment was almost 2-fold in patients with open UE fractures compared with closed. This study provides important epidemiological information on UE fractures in 2016. The incidence rate of UE fractures in the ED has remained high, with most occurring in the distal radius, phalanges, and clavicle. In addition, UE fractures were most common in younger patients, men, and those in the southern United States during the summer. These findings can be useful for health care providers and policymakers when evaluating and treating patients with UE fractures.

Background Rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is now a well-established approach for reducing time to viral suppression in persons newly-diagnosed with HIV. However, there is limited data examining the effect of rapid initiation of ART on retention in care—which is also crucial to reducing transmission—especially in the disparate populations of the southern United States. The goal of this study is to determine if rapid start ART increases retention in HIV care in this region. Methods This was a prospective population-based cohort study of newly-diagnosed HIV patients who established care at the 550 Clinic from July 2021 to April 2022. The intervention was utilizing a team to facilitate warm hand-offs of newly diagnosed patients to clinic, in contrast with standard of care, a faxed referral. All patients were enrolled in one of two arms: rapid prospective (ART initiated within 7 days of diagnosis) or non-rapid prospective (ART started > 7 days of diagnosis). Data was also matched to a retrospective arm from historical data. Patients were followed at a visit 4-8 weeks from initiation then again in 8-12 weeks. Descriptive statistics were done to compare demographics, clinical characteristics and time to follow-up visit by study arm. Results Of the 105 patients enrolled, 41 were in the rapid prospective arm, 35 in the non-rapid prospective arm, and 29 in the retrospective arm. The median age was 31 years, 83% were male, 35% African American, and 12% Hispanic. In the rapid arm, time from initiation to first kept follow-up was significantly less compared to the non-rapid arm (44 days vs 70 days, p < 0.001). From baseline to third visit, there was a 93% increase in the CD4 count among the rapid arm vs a 58% increase among the non-rapid arm. Additionally, 80% of rapid participants had an undetectable viral load by visit 3 vs 66.7% of non-rapid participants. Conclusion Results showed that addition of a warm hand-off and rapid initiation of ART improves linkage to care and increases adherence to follow-ups, as well as rates of viral suppression. This intervention was effective in improving outcomes, even among the medically vulnerable populations seen in the southern US. This data can therefore contribute to closing gaps in data on regional HIV care where ethnic minorities experience healthcare disparities. Disclosures Bailey Benidir, PharmD, AAHIVP, Gilead Sciences, Inc.: Grant/Research Support Forest W. Arnold, DO, MSc, Gilead Sciences, Inc.: Grant/Research Support.

A computer program has been developed to minimize the present worth of the electric and thermal energy costs of a manufacturing facility as a function of the type and amount of cogeneration and thermal storage it might install. The model is particularly useful in instances where the rates paid for electricity are differentiated by time of day and season. The program has been applied successfully to two large industrial facilities located in the southern United States. It simulates the optimal electricity production and thermal energy usage patterns as a function of the equipment installed in the plant over a planning horizon of 15 years, based upon a year's worth of historical data, projected load growth, and projected rates for fuel and electricity. The historical data consists of bihourly information on total electricity consumption and central station chiller electricity usage, as well as bihourly data on the plant's process steam load. Figure 1 shows a generic industrial plant with an electricity feeder and a gas or fuel oil pipiline providing the energy needs with no thermal storage or cogeneration activity. Typically, the electricity is used for a variety of purposes, including motor drive, lighting, and other processing needs. Often, especially in the summertime, electrically driven chillers are a significant portion of the overall electricity demand. The chillers are shown in the figure as a source of cold water for the plant.

A computer program has been developed to minimize the present worth of the electric and thermal energy costs of a manufacturing facility as a function of the type and amount of cogeneration and thermal storage it might install. The model is particularly useful in instances where the rates paid for electricity are differentiated by time of day and season. The program has been applied successfully to two large industrial facilities located in the southern United States. It simulates the optimal electricity production and thermal energy usage patterns as a function of the equipment installed in the plant over a planning horizon of 15 years, based on a year's worth of historical data, projected load growth, and projected rates for fuel and electricity. The historical data consist of bihourly information on total electricity consumption and central station chiller electricity usage, as well as bihourly data on the plant's process steam load.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>

Terrestrial ecosystems in the southern United States (SUS) have experienced a complex set of changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, tropospheric ozone (O3), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) during the past century. Although each of these factors has received attention for its alterations on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics, their combined effects and relative contributions are still not well understood. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) in combination with spatially explicit, long-term historical data series on multiple environmental factors, we examined the century-scale responses of ecosystem C storage and flux to multiple environmental changes in the SUS. The results indicated that multiple environmental changes shifted SUS ecosystems from a C source of 1.20 ± 0.56 Pg (1 Pg = 1015 g) during the period 1895 to 1950, to a C sink of 2.00 ± 0.94 Pg during the period 1951 to 2007. Over the entire period spanning 1895–2007, SUS ecosystems were a net C sink of 0.80 ± 0.38 Pg. The C sink was primarily due to an increase in the vegetation C pool, whereas the soil C pool decreased during the study period. The spatiotemporal changes of C storage were caused by changes in multiple environmental factors. Among the five factors examined (climate, LULCC, N deposition, atmospheric CO2, and tropospheric O3), elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration was the largest contributor to C sequestration, followed by N deposition. LULCC, climate, and tropospheric O3 concentration contributed to C losses during the study period. The SUS ecosystem C sink was largely the result of interactive effects among multiple environmental factors, particularly atmospheric N input and atmospheric CO2.

We examine consequences of climate-induced range expansion on community composition and diversity within trees attacked by the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann). At the northernmost limit of the southern pine beetle range where populations have persisted for multiple years (currently Long Island, NY), we collected and reared bark samples and placed emergence traps on southern pine beetle-attacked pitch pine, Pinus rigida Mill. (Pinales: Pinaceae). From these samples, we quantified southern pine beetle gallery length and emergence as well as the diversity and abundance of all associated insects including known and suspected competitors, predators, and parasitoids. We compared our results to that of historic sampling data (1975-1997) in the core of southern pine beetle's range in the southern United States. Key community members were present in both the northern and southern regions; composition and relative abundances differed markedly. A key predator, the clerid beetle Thanasimus dubius (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Cleridae), was present in similar densities in both regions. Southern pine beetle infested a greater proportion of the length of the tree bole in the North. This increased tree utilization may be a consequence of a lack of resource competition by Ips De Geer (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) engraver beetles, which we found only in very low abundance in the northern sites. We discuss the implications of these results in the context of southern pine beetle range expansion. Continued study of the southern pine beetle community and temporal southern pine beetle dynamics in the North will add to our current knowledge base and aid preservation of rare and ecologically valuable pine barrens of New England.

ABSTRACTClimate change‐induced heat stress significantly threatens cotton production in the Southern United States, reducing yields and farm revenue. This study quantifies the impact of rising temperatures using a multilevel regression model applied to historical climate and yield data (1980–2018) from key cotton‐growing regions. The analysis examines how maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and growing degree days influence yield at different growth stages. Results show that a 1°C increase in maximum temperature during the flowering stage (TmaxGS2) reduces cotton yield by 5.5%, leading to revenue losses of up to $219 per acre. Conversely, higher precipitation during critical growth periods increases yield by 183 lb/acre, partially offsetting heat stress effects. Given these findings, adaptation strategies are essential. We recommend the development of heat‐tolerant cotton varieties, improved irrigation management, and expanded financial support programmes, including climate‐based crop insurance. Additionally, optimising planting schedules and adopting precision agriculture can help mitigate yield losses. These measures will strengthen the resilience of cotton farming against escalating climate risks, ensuring long‐term sustainability. This study provides valuable insights for farmers, policymakers, and researchers working to safeguard cotton production in a changing climate.