Abstract
The purpose of improving a method is to devise a tool for resolving contradictions in the practice of conflict events related to increasing the survivability and effectiveness of participation in a conflict event. A method for forecasting the survivability indicators of a special-purpose system based on the method of analytical-stochastic modeling of a conflict event was chosen as the basis for improvement. The improved method is intended to find a compromise between the need to increase the duration of participation in the conflict and minimize the time of being at risk of loss of ability to function. The use of the improved method, unlike the existing ones, provides an assessment of the impact of maneuver on the effectiveness of the implementation of tasks and the survivability of SPS. The method implies justifying the techniques for the executive elements to maneuver in order to create favorable conditions and effectively perform tasks in a conflict event. The method involves the procedure for the formation of initial data; determining the maneuvering intensity of executive elements; comparing the parameters for expedient (rational) and implemented maneuvering techniques; the generalization of the research results. The accepted indicators of the effectiveness and survivability of a special-purpose system in a conflict event are the mathematical expectations of the number of destructive influences and the number of preserved executive elements as a function of the intensity of maneuvering. The criteria defined for assessing the maneuvering techniques are the greatest values of the increase in efficiency and survivability with the change in the intensity of maneuvering and taking the favorable position by an executive element in a conflict event. The specified method has helped investigate the peculiarities of changing performance and survivability indicators dependent on the intensity of maneuvering and determine the criteria signs for selecting maneuvering techniques. Based on the signs of informativeness and the nature of the mutual influence of the relevant indicators, the advantage of the method is 30 % while the objectivity of taking into consideration significant factors increases by 15 %. Practice needs to predict the consequences of processes of conflicting nature on the grounds of the effectiveness and survivability of its participants
Highlights
The peculiarity of any modern conflict events is the dependence of their results on the degree of provision with an appropriate resource, as well as conditions, which provide for a favorable position compared to the enemy [1]
A party to the conflict, which is not able to adapt to changes in the situation and create more favorable conditions compared to the enemy, is doomed to defeat [1,2,3,4]
The duration of maneuvering, as part of a conflict event, reduces the time to reproduce the destructive effect on the enemy, which is risky in terms of the loss of the initiative and, as a result, the failure to perform the tasks of the opposition [1, 2]
Summary
The peculiarity of any modern conflict events is the dependence of their results on the degree of provision with an appropriate resource, as well as conditions, which provide for a favorable position compared to the enemy [1]. A contradiction arises in the practice of conflict events, resolving which is possible by determining such maneuvering techniques at which the balance of effectiveness and survivability of the executive elements of a special-purpose system in conflict will be preserved. Examples of such EEs are mobile communication, surface-to-air missile, missile, artillery, radar, radio electronic, radio engineering evacuation (transport) and other systems and complexes. This fact is evidence of the relevance of this issue and the need for a scientific approach to studying it
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