Improvement of bank strategic management based on econometric modeling of its activity efficiency

Abstract

Some aspects of bank strategic management are defined in the article. Efficiency econometric modelling of one of the leading banks operating at Ukrainian financial market was performed using Statistica and Excel PCs. To establish appropriate correlations, the three inputs that were most affected during the coronavirus pandemic were identified: net interest margin, financial leverage ratio, and profitability of personnel costs. There are selected two parameters as one of the main indicators of banking institution efficiency: return on assets and return on equity. The dependences response surfaces of return on assets and return on equity based on the following combinations are constructed: net interest margin and financial leverage ratio; net interest margin and profitability of personnel costs; the financial leverage ratio and profitability of personnel costs. Correlations between different combinations of input variables and their effect on outputs have been established. The limits within which each input parameter should be in order to cause the best results of output parameters have been determined. In order to define those bank's activity areas that require the most attention, models of time dependences have been built for: net interest margin; financial leverage ratio; profitability of personnel costs; return on assets and return on equity. The milestones of the researched bank have been identified. A number of proposals have been developed to improve the strategic management of the banking institution based on the conducted analysis. It is defined that the effectiveness of banking institutions strategic management depends on the timeliness and objectivity of changes forecast, the reliability of information flows and the quality of monitoring and control of various business processes for customers, shareholders and society as a whole.