Improved Aftershock of the 2006 Yogyakarta MW 6.4 Earthquake Sequence Using Deep Learning and Its Correlates with Tectonic Setting

Coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by the Mw6.9 Yutian earthquake in 2014 and its correlation to the 2008 Mw7.2 Yutian earthquake

Present study describes the statistical properties of aftershock sequences related with two major Nepal earthquakes (April 25, 2015, MW 7.8, and May 12, 2015, MW 7.2) and their correlations with the tectonics of Nepal Himalaya. The established empirical scaling laws such as the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation, the modified Omori law, and the fractal dimension for both the aftershock sequences of Nepal earthquakes have been investigated to assess the spatio-temporal characteristics of these sequences. For this purpose, the homogenized earthquake catalog in moment magnitude, MW is compiled from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) databases during the period from April 25 to October 31, 2015. The magnitude of completeness, MC, a and b-values of Gutenberg–Richter relationship for the first aftershock sequence are found to be 3.0, 4.74, 0.75 (±0.03) respectively whereas the MC, a and b-values of the same relationship for the second aftershock sequence are calculated to be 3.3, 5.46, 0.90 (±0.04) respectively. The observed low b-values for both the sequences, as compared to the global mean of 1.0 indicate the presence of high differential stress accumulations within the fractured rock mass of Nepal Himalaya. The calculated p-values of 1.01 ± 0.05 and 0.95 ± 0.04 respectively for both the aftershock sequences also imply that the aftershock sequence of first main-shock exhibits relatively faster temporal decay pattern than the aftershock sequence of second main-shock. The fractal dimensions, DC values of 1.84 ± 0.05 and 1.91 ± 0.05 respectively for both the aftershock sequences of Nepal earthquakes also reveal the clustering pattern of earthquakes and signifies that the aftershocks are scattered all around the two dimensional space of fractured fault systems of the Nepal region. The low b-value and low DC observed in the temporal variations of b-value and DC before the investigated earthquake (MW 7.2) suggest the presence of high-stress concentrations in the thrusting regimes of the Nepal region before the failure of faults. Moreover, the decrease of b-value with the corresponding decrease of DC observed in their temporal variations can primarily act as an indicator for possible prediction of major earthquakes in the study region.

On 14 May 2019, a major (Mw 7.6) earthquake struck eastern Papua New Guinea, causing a tsunami warning that was later canceled. The last major rupture in the region was a 2000 Mw 8.0 event, which resulted in massive horizontal land movements of up to several meters and a series of aftershocks with primarily thrust mechanisms, and caused a damaging tsunami. Seismic methods for characterizing the source process were applied. Vertical components of the long-period P-waves from 35 stations of the Global Seismic Network with even azimuthal coverage were adopted in the inversions. First, the focal mechanism solution was retrieved after the earthquake. From the inverted results as well as aftershock distribution, the causative fault of the great PNG earthquake was confirmed to be a fault of strike = 316°, dip = 84°, and rake = 0°, indicating that the earthquake was a left-lateral strike-slip event. Then, to clearly understand the spatiotemporal evolutionary process of the source rupture of the earthquake, far-field body wave data were collected, and the source rupture process of this earthquake was studied using the finite fault inversion method. A finite-fault model was estabished with length and width of 152 and 32 km, respectively, and we set the initial seismic source parameters referring to the center of the focal mechanism solution. This was estimated by the focal mechanism solutions of defferent studies referring to different focal mechanism solutions. We found that the focal mechanism solution determined by Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog was not appropriate. Inversion results indicated that the seismic moment was 3.63 × 1020 Nm (Mw 7.6), and the source duration was ~ 40 s. The rupture propagated mainly toward the northwest in an asymmetrical bilateral mode, with a maximum slip of ~ 13.2 m, and a large-scale slip patch strongly ruptured to the surface. The study of Coulomb stress changes suggested that the PNG earthquake may trigger a thrust-type rupture in the New Britain Trench, which has the potential to trigger a tsunami.

Earthquake moment tensors and focal depths are crucial to assessing seismic hazards and studying active tectonic and volcanic processes. Although less powerful than strong earthquakes (M 7+), moderately strong earthquakes (M 5–6.5) occur more frequently and extensively, which can cause severe damages in populated areas. The inversion of moment tensors is usually affected by insufficient local waveform data (epicentral distance <5°) in sparse seismic networks. It would be necessary to combine local and teleseismic data (epicentral distance 30°–90°) for a joint inversion. In this study, we present the generalized cut-and-paste joint (gCAPjoint) algorithm to jointly invert full moment tensor and centroid depth with local and teleseismic broadband waveforms. To demonstrate the effectiveness and explore the limitations of this algorithm, we perform case studies on three earthquakes with different tectonic settings and source properties. Comparison of our results with global centroid moment tensor and other catalog solutions illustrates that both non-double-couple compositions of the focal mechanisms and centroid depths can be reliably recovered for very shallow (<10 km) earthquakes and intermediate-depth events with this software package.

On 26 May 2006 at 22:53:59 UTC, an earthquake with moment magnitude of 6.4 occurred in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The source of the event is still debatable. Some believe the event was caused by the reactivation of the Opak Fault which has a left-lateral type movement. Previous studies indicated there are two possibilities to explain the mechanism of the Yogyakarta earthquake. First is based on the focal mechanism from NIED (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster) Japan which indicated that the event occurred in an oblique reverse slip. This model states that the complex Opak fault is a flower structure (strike-slip) type. Second is based on NEIC (National Earthquake Information Center) US which indicated that the event was caused by a pure strike-slip fault (active Opak fault). The May 26th earthquake triggered many aftershock events around the old Opak fault. The majority of aftershock events on 3-6 June 2006 were located around 5 km east of Opak fault. It has a trendline of N45°E and lies parallel with the Opak fault. We use Coulomb Stress change to determine which type of source model fit better the aftershocks pattern. The target fault for Coulomb Stress analysis is a left lateral pure strike slip with an orientation of N45°E/90°SE.

The 2022 Mw6.2 Pasaman earthquake took place in central-west Sumatra in association with activity in the Sumatran Fault system. This study clarifies the spatial and temporal distribution of the Pasaman earthquake sequence and forecasts the earthquake sequence’s impact on the seismicity in the vicinity and in the Sumatran Fault system. We first examined the seismicity before the mainshock and observed temporal low b-value anomalies, shedding light on the earthquake’s precursor by monitoring b-values prior to the event. Based on the aftershocks in the first 18 days, we modeled the temporal distribution of the aftershocks according to the modified Omori’s law, which suggested this sequence could last 49–473 days. By further considering Båth’s law and the Gutenberg–Richter law, we estimated the temporal distribution of the maximum magnitudes in the aftershock sequence. To understand the spatial pattern of the aftershocks, we calculated the coseismic Coulomb stress change imparted by the Pasaman mainshock. Considering uncertainties of the Coulomb stress calculations from rupture geometry, mainshock parameters, friction coefficients, and strike angles of the receiver plane, the patterns of the Coulomb stress changes are similar that the stress increases extended northwest and southeast, consistent with aftershock distribution. We further evaluated rupture probability for each segment of the Sumatran Fault. Considering the stress perturbation imparted by the Pasaman earthquake, we expected a seismicity rate increase of ca. 40% at the Sumpur and Sianok segments in the short term. To quantify long-term rupture probability, the recurrence interval and the time elapsed since the previous earthquake were incorporated based on the time-dependent Brownian passage-time model. The earthquake probability at the Sumani segment in the coming 50 years was determined to be 72%. The results of this study have significant implications for subsequent probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, not only for Sumatra but also for certain metropolitan areas in Malaysia and Singapore.

ABSTRACTStrong mining-induced earthquakes are often followed by aftershocks, similar to natural earthquakes. Although the magnitudes of such in-mine aftershocks are not high, they may pose a threat to mining infrastructure, production, and primarily, people working underground. The existing post-earthquake mining procedures usually do not consider any aspects of the physics of the mainshock. This work aims to estimate the rate and distribution of aftershocks following mining-induced seismic events by applying the rate-and-state model of fault friction, which is commonly used in natural earthquake studies. It was found that both the pre-mainshock level of seismicity and the coseismic stress change following the mainshock rupture have strong effects on the aftershock sequence. For mining-induced seismicity, however, we need to additionally account for the constantly changing stress state caused by the ongoing exploitation. Here, we attempt to model the aftershock sequence, its rate, and distribution of two M≈2 events in iron ore Kiruna mine, Sweden. We could appropriately estimate the aftershock sequence for one of the events because both the modeled rate and distribution of aftershocks matched the observed activity; however, the model underestimated the rate of aftershocks for the other event. The results of modeling showed that aftershocks following mining events occur in the areas of pre-mainshock activity influenced by the positive coulomb stress changes, according to the model’s assumptions. However, we also noted that some additional process not incorporated in the rate-and-state model may influence the aftershock sequence. Nevertheless, this type of modeling is a good tool for evaluating the risk areas in mines following a strong seismic event.

The term of Opak fault as commonly used today refer to the subsurface rupture beneath Opak river, which is covered by young Merapi volcano sediment, located in Bantul Region southeast of Yogyakarta within the entire of southern mountain. The early concerning to the existing of Opak fault appear to be awakened since Dr. S.W. Visser reported Yogyakarta earthquake of 1867 which epicenter located near opak river. Since the Yogyakarta earthquake on 27 May 2006, Opak fault become famous and researcher believe that the earthquake caused by this fault. Further more, the conclusions regarding fault position remain equivocal are due to difference in each idea which resulting from their researches. It is understood because the main fault body exposure is limited and not available data at all to collecting due to covering by young Merapi sediment. However, as ontologically it is still remain question mark and has not being met the essence of opak fault existence. This paper proposes a preliminary result of the comparative review taking from the conclusions of the last several researchers regarding its opak fault existence. In order to determine either aspect of structure elements which have been conformed or still remain the uncertainties. Previous studies have reported some results regarding opak fault as summarized: 1) Opak fault system striking from the Southwest to the Northeast; 2) The lineament of Poncosari – Taman Tirto was identified as a fault which has striking parallel to opak fault; 3) Between Poncosari Tamantirto lineament and opak fault trending create a zone with corridor at approximately 10 km; 4) Different ideas of opak fault dip direction resulting from researchers, either opak fault has dip direction toward the Northwest or the Southeast. At least two group of ideas arising based upon the list explained above which have been identified.(1) Although they have coincident in the trending SW-NE of the opak fault. Yet in kinematic aspects appear different opinion due to yielding from different methods. Either they concluded in trending left lateral strike slip fault or thrust fault with dip direction to the Southeast. (2)The lineament Poncosari Tamantirto is still need to find field evident while this fault was interpreted from InSar to reveal surface deformation.(3) Poncosari-Tamantirto fault is shown in gravity pattern starting from Kasihan toward Glagah Jatinom, Klaten. (4) Updating of new opinion regarding dip direction to resulted the Southeast of dip direction and directed to the hanging wall area in Wonosari Gunung kidul. In the next stage of research, it is required an investigation in the field within corridor of opak fault zone to determine the areas where need to clarify and to find the evident at the edge of hills .

On February 12 2014,an Ms7.3earthquake hit Yutian,Xinjiang,the epicenter is at the intersection of Karakax fault and Gonggacuo fault.Earthquake triggering theory indicates that Coulomb stress on nearby faults will change because of crustal coseismic slip after earthquake,and it will affect earthquake potential risk.In this paper,we estimate focal mechanism and rupture process with far field seismic wave data,and calculate coseismic stress change on nearby faults around epicenter.The purpose is to discuss Coulomb stress change and seismic potential hazard on these faults caused by Yutian earthquake.After the earthquake,we download seismic far field wave data of which epicenter is between 30°to 90°from IRIS.We select27 high SNR(signal to noise ratio)seismic record to make theoretical seismogram.We use generalized ray theory to get synthetic seismic wave map,and sub fault parameter inverse process is based on simulated annealing algorithms.In the way of changing fault parameter to fit actual and synthetic wave form,optimum solution of every sub fault is found.Based on fault rupture inversion model and infinite elastic half space theory,we calculate Coulomb stress change on nearby faults caused by the earthquake.The inversion results show that source depth of earthquake is 10 km,dip angle is 71.9°,largest coseismic displacement is 210 cm.Seismic moment is 2.91×1019 N·m,the main seismic energy is released in former 10 second.Aftershocks are mainly distributed in three regions:north Pulu fault,east Karakax fault and centre Gonggacuo fault.Stress increased significantly on western segment of Altyn fault,central part of Pulu fault,eastern segment of Karakax fault and central segment of Gonggacuo fault.Among them the largest stress change is 0.05 MPa on Karakax fault and 0.04 MPa on Gonggacuo fault.Former research shows that,Coulomb stress change caused by earthquake larger than 0.01 MPa will dramatically increase seismic risk on faults.In our research,stress change on Pulu fault,Gonggacuo fault and Karakax fault exceed triggering threshold,so all these three faults have seismic risk.In the near future seismic potential hazard on these faults should be closely monitored.In the past 6years,3 moderately strong earthquakes happen in the study area,epicenters migrate from Gonggacuo fault to Altyn fault,from southwest to northeast.Though stress change on Altyn fault is much lower,in consideration of 9mm·a-1 slip rate,seismic risk on Altyn fault should cause enough attention.

The 2016 Ecuador M 7.8 earthquake ruptured the subduction zone boundary between the Nazca plate and the South America plate. This M 7.8 earthquake may have promoted failure in the surrounding crust, where six M ≥ 6 aftershocks occurred following this mainshock. These crustal ruptures were triggered by the high coulomb stress changes produced by the M 7.8 mainshock. Here, we investigate whether the six M ≥ 6 aftershocks are consistent with the positive coulomb stress region due to the mainshock. To explore the correlation between the mainshock and the aftershocks, we adopt a recently published high-quality finite fault model and focal mechanisms to study the coulomb stress triggers during the M 7.8 earthquake sequence. We compute the coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) on both of the focal mechanism nodal planes. We compare the ΔCFS imparted by the M 7.8 mainshock on the subsequent aftershocks with the epicenter location of each aftershock. In addition, the shear stress, normal stress, and coulomb stress changes in the focal sources of each aftershock are also computed. Coulomb stress changes in the focal source for the six M ≥ 6 aftershocks are in the range of −2.17–7.564 bar. Only one computational result for the M 6.9 aftershock is negative; other results are positive. We found that the vast majority of the six M ≥ 6 aftershocks occurred in positive coulomb stress areas triggered by the M 7.8 mainshock. Our results suggest that the coulomb stress changes contributed to the development of the Ecuador M 7.8 earthquake sequence.

The 12 October 2013 M w6.7 earthquake offshore Crete Island is one of the few strong earthquakes to have occurred in the last few decades in the southwestern part of the Hellenic subduction zone (HSZ), providing the opportunity to evaluate characteristics of the descending slab. The HSZ has experienced several strong (M ≥ 7.0) earthquakes in historical times with the largest one being the 365 AD, M w = 8.4 earthquake, the largest known ever occurred in the Mediterranean region. The 2013 main shock occurred in close proximity with the 365 event, on an interplate thrust fault at a depth of 26 km, onto the coupled part of the overriding and descending plates. GCMT solution shows a slightly oblique (rake = 130°) thrust faulting with downdip compression on a nearly horizontal (dip = 3°) northeast-dipping fault plane with strike (340°) parallel to the subduction front, with the compression axis being oriented in the direction of plate convergence. The subduction interface can be more clearly resolved with the integration of aftershock locations and CMT solution. For this scope, the aftershocks were relocated after obtaining a v p/v s ratio equal to 1.76, a one-dimensional velocity model and time delays that approximate the velocity structure of the study area, and the employment of double-difference technique for both phase pick data and cross-correlation differential times. The first-day relocated seismicity, alike aftershocks in the first 2 months, shows activation of an area at the upper part of the descending slab, with most activity being concentrated between 13 and 27 km, where the main shock is also encompassed. Aftershocks are rare near to the main shock, implying homogeneous slip on a large patch of the rupture plane. Based on the aftershock distribution, the size of the activated area estimated is about 24 km long and 17 km wide. Coulomb stress changes resolved for transpressive motion reveal negligible off-fault aftershock triggering, evidencing a comparatively stable regime in the downdip part of the slab or different fault mechanism.

In order to investigate the possibility of forecasting aftershock distribution of the Iranian earthquakes, three strong earthquakes from the past 10 years were selected to calculate Coulomb stress changes and its correlation with the aftershock distribution. The common point of these earthquakes is their reverse focal mechanisms. Our results show a good triggering relationship between the aftershocks and main shocks. Moreover, though we selected earthquakes from three different seismotectonic provinces of Iran, the results were almost similar. In all cases, the utilization of specified oriented planes improved the correlation between the distribution of aftershock and stress-enhanced regions compared to the optimally oriented fault planes. And, the stress-increased regions are larger in the opposite side of the fault plane and the majority of aftershocks have been occurred in the same side. Our results in these cases show that faulting type may influence the aftershock distribution.

In this paper, we present a model for studying aftershock sequences that integrates Coulomb static stress change analysis, seismicity equations based on rate-state friction nucleation of earthquakes, slip of geometrically complex faults, and fractal-like, spatially heterogeneous models of crustal stress. In addition to modeling instantaneous aftershock seismicity rate patterns with initial clustering on the Coulomb stress increase areas and an approximately 1/t diffusion back to the pre-mainshock background seismicity, the simulations capture previously unmodeled effects. These include production of a significant number of aftershocks in the traditional Coulomb stress shadow zones and temporal changes in aftershock focal mechanism statistics. The occurrence of aftershock stress shadow zones arises from two sources. The first source is spatially heterogeneous initial crustal stress, and the second is slip on geometrically rough faults, which produces localized positive Coulomb stress changes within the traditional stress shadow zones. Temporal changes in simulated aftershock focal mechanisms result in inferred stress rotations that greatly exceed the true stress rotations due to the main shock, even for a moderately strong crust (mean stress 50 MPa) when stress is spatially heterogeneous. This arises from biased sampling of the crustal stress by the synthetic aftershocks due to the non-linear dependence of seismicity rates on stress changes. The model indicates that one cannot use focal mechanism inversion rotations to conclusively demonstrate low crustal strength (≤10 MPa); therefore, studies of crustal strength following a stress perturbation may significantly underestimate the mean crustal stress state for regions with spatially heterogeneous stress.

In this paper, we present a model for studying aftershock sequences that integrates Coulomb static stress change analysis, seismicity equations based on rate-state friction nucleation of earthquakes, slip of geometrically complex faults, and fractal-like, spatially heterogeneous models of crustal stress. In addition to modeling instantaneous aftershock seismicity rate patterns with initial clustering on the Coulomb stress increase areas and an approximately 1/t diffusion back to the pre-mainshock background seismicity, the simulations capture previously unmodeled effects. These include production of a significant number of aftershocks in the traditional Coulomb stress shadow zones and temporal changes in aftershock focal mechanism statistics. The occurrence of aftershock stress shadow zones arises from two sources. The first source is spatially heterogeneous initial crustal stress, and the second is slip on geometrically rough faults, which produces localized positive Coulomb stress changes within the traditional stress shadow zones. Temporal changes in simulated aftershock focal mechanisms result in inferred stress rotations that greatly exceed the true stress rotations due to the main shock, even for a moderately strong crust (mean stress 50 MPa) when stress is spatially heterogeneous. This arises from biased sampling of the crustal stress by the synthetic aftershocks due to the non-linear dependence of seismicity rates on stress changes. The model indicates that one cannot use focal mechanism inversion rotations to conclusively demonstrate low crustal strength (≤10 MPa); therefore, studies of crustal strength following a stress perturbation may significantly underestimate the mean crustal stress state for regions with spatially heterogeneous stress.

Rapid and accurate source characterizations of large, shallow subduction earthquakes are key for improved tsunami warning efforts. We assess the quality of source parameters of large magnitude (<it>M</it><inf>w</inf> ≥ 7.5) shallow subduction earthquakes of the past 20 yr determined using SCARDEC, a recent fully automated broad-band body-wave source inversion technique for the fast estimation of the moment magnitude, depth, focal mechanism and source time functions of global events. We find that SCARDEC source parameters agree well with those reported in the global centroid moment tensor (GCMT) catalogue, with only the fault dip angle showing a tendency for steeper SCARDEC dip values than GCMT. We investigate this discrepancy through independent validation tests of the source models by: (i) testing how well they explain data not used in their construction, notably low-frequency normal mode data; and, (ii) assessing the data fit using 3-D forward modelling tools more sophisticated than those used to build the source models; specifically, we use a spectral element method for a 3-D earth model. We find that SCARDEC source parameters explain normal mode data reasonably well compared to GCMT solutions. In addition, for the 3-D earth model used in our experiments, SCARDEC dip angles explain body-wave data similarly or slightly better than GCMT. Moreover, SCARDEC dip angles agree well with results from individual earthquake studies in the literature and with geophysical constraints for different subduction zones. Our results show that SCARDEC is a reliable technique for rapid determinations of source parameters of large (<it>M</it><inf>w</inf> ≥ 7.5) subduction earthquakes. Since the SCARDEC method provides realistic source time functions allowing the fast identification of long-duration tsunami earthquakes, it is complementary to existing methods routinely used for earthquake monitoring and suitable for ocean-wide tsunami warning purposes.