Abstract
AbstractImplicit measures have contributed to the prediction of behavior in numerous domains including the political realm. Some theoretical arguments suggest that implicit measures are unlikely to substantially improve the prediction of political voting behavior. Other arguments are more optimistic, especially regarding the prediction of undecided voters' behavior. Here, we review the evidence regarding the extent to which implicit measures improve the prediction of political voting behavior beyond explicit self‐report measures. Results reveal that implicit measures are often statistically significant predictors. However, the inclusion of an implicit measure leads to modest or even no improvement of the overall accuracy of the original prediction. We conclude that implicit measures are likely to be practically relevant for predicting voting behavior only if researchers can identify new approaches. Related findings in political psychology may pave the way as they demonstrate that implicit measures can contribute unique knowledge not accounted for in other ways.
Highlights
Implicit measures have contributed to the prediction of behavior in numerous domains including the political realm
Related findings in political psychology may pave the way as they demonstrate that implicit measures can contribute unique knowledge not accounted for in other ways
Interest in implicit measures has been fueled by the increasing prominence of dual-process and dualsystem models, which propose that human behavior is always a blend of controlled processes and automatic processes (Sherman, Gawronski, & Trope, 2014)
Summary
Implicit measures have contributed to the prediction of behavior in numerous domains including the political realm. A theoretical analysis suggests that the prediction of political voting behavior is unlikely to profit much from the inclusion of an implicit measure Such an analysis encompasses at least the following observations: First, dual process theories such as the MODE model (Fazio, 1990; Fazio & Olson, 2014) or the reflective–impulsive model (Strack & Deutsch, 2004) propose that the processes assessed by implicit measures are unlikely to substantially influence behaviors that individuals can control and that they are motivated to control (for an overview, see Sherman et al, 2014). It includes clear choice options that are known weeks and months before the election occurs
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