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Abstract
Cities and urban areas are critical nodes of societal resource flows, responsible for both global and local sustainability implications. They are complex systems and understanding the implications of potential actions by cities is critical for progress towards sustainability. In this paper the future implications of sustainability strategies are assessed for 10 European cities by comparing two scenarios for 2050: a business-as-usual (BAU) and a post-carbon/sustainability scenario (PC2050) (generated by city stakeholders). The effects of the scenarios are assessed using a mixed methodology: a semi-quantitative sustainability indicator analysis, energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (both production-based and consumption-based accounting (PBA and CBA)), land-use spatial modelling, and cost–benefit analysis. The paper highlights the clear benefits of PC2050 with improved sustainability indicator results, reduced land sprawl (which averages 16% in BAU) and positive cost–benefit results. Nonetheless, inequality and segregation are a common concern. In addition, whilst PBA indicates a significant decrease (average decrease from 4.7 to 1.3 tCO2eq per capita) CBA demonstrates rising overall emissions from an average of 11 to 14.8 tCO2eq per capita. This is linked to rising affluence and consumption trends despite local improvements in GHG emissions, which highlights a need for cities to address consumption-based emissions.
Highlights
The population living in cities is increasing with 66% of people expected to live in urban areas by 2050 [1]
Population and gross domestic product (GDP) are generally higher in PC2050 than BAU, which partly reflects the use of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as background scenarios for population and GDP
Whilst all cities experience GDP increases under both scenarios, there is a wide variation for PC2050 compared to the Sbuasstaeinyaebialirty(f2r0o20m, 1j2u, sxtF1O7R%PEfEoRr TRuEVriInEWup to 194% for Istanbul)
Summary
The population living in cities is increasing with 66% of people expected to live in urban areas by 2050 [1]. Cities are responsible for over 78% of the global energy consumption and over 60% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [2], but less is known about how they drive resource use and sustainability impacts. They are centres of socio-economic strength and are responsible for 85% of gross domestic product (GDP) [3]. Measurement of GHG emissions can be performed using either production-based accounting (PBA) that focuses on the emissions produced by activities within city borders and jurisdiction, or consumption-based accounting (CBA). Chen et al [11] calculated 50% for Sydney and Melbourne, whilst C40 cities [4] obtained an average of 60% for 79 global cities
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