Impacts of irrigated agriculture on food\u2013energy\u2013water\u2013CO2 nexus across metacoupled systems

The extent to which the South-to-North Water Transfer Project has influenced the trend in water storage deficit in the North China Plain since its official opening in late 2014 has not been systematically assessed. We evaluated the changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the North China Plain based on the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-on (GRACE-FO) long-term gravity satellite observations from 2002 to 2022, using spherical harmonic (SH) solutions from the Center for Space Research (CSR), GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and Mass Concentration (Mascon) solutions from CSR, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), JPL, and compared with the South-to-North Water Transfer water supply (13.91 Gt/a). The CSR-SH solution that best matched the water supply was selected, and it was found that the rate of change in TWS in the North China Plain from 2002 to 2015 was (−8.48 ± 1.87) Gt/a, and the rate of change from 2015 to 2019 increased significantly to (5.44 ± 4.87) Gt/a, indicating that the TWS in the plain changed from deficit to gain. The South-to-North Water Transfer Project has played a positive role in significantly improving the water stress situation in North China. Simultaneously, by comparing the inversions of six time-varying gravity field models (CSR-SH, GFZ-SH, JPL-SH, CSR-Mascon, GSFC-Mascon, and JPL-Mascon) with the South-to-North Water Transfer water supply and measured groundwater well data, and by calculating the uncertainty using the ‘three-cornered hat method’ (TCH), a comprehensive comparison is made to conclude that the CSR-SH model is most effective with a minimum difference of 0.01 Gt/a from the annual water supply, a minimum difference of 0.04 Gt/a from the measured well data, and a small uncertainty of 3.04 cm. This study reveals the important impact of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project on TWS in the North China Plain, which is of reference value for water resource management decisions in China.

The South-to-North Water Transfer Project, composed of west, middle and east water transfer routes, is designed to divert water separately from the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze to meet the needs of the socio-economic development of Northwest and North China. There would be no considerable negative impacts on the whole Yangtze river system since the total annual diversion water of the three routes would be in the order of 38–48 km3, which accounts for 4–5% of the Yangtze annual runoff of about 951.3 km3. From the local view of point, there would be some environmental impacts on the upper reaches of the Yangtze and the estuary during the dry season. The three routes would have distinct environmental impacts on the water source region, transfer region and beneficial region. The adverse influence of the East Route was analyzed from various aspects such as the saltwater encroachment in the Yangtze estuary, sediment deposit in the lower Yangtze channel, soil secondary salinization and alkalization in the transfer region, possibility of spread of schistosomiasis to North China, aquatic life in the Yangtze estuary, offshore and regulating ponds and reservoirs along the route. The major negative effects of the Middle Route are the inundation and resettlement due to heightening of the Danjiangkou Dam and the land requisition of the diversion canals and regulating reservoirs in North China Plain. The West Route would have no serious problems for the livelihood of the people since the population is quite small in the upper reaches of the Yangtze and the Yellow River, but it would adversely affect the upper and middle reaches of the Tongtian, Dadu and Yalong rivers.

BackgroundChina’s vigorous anti-COVID-19 campaign has been going on for three months since January 20, which has contained the spread of the virus across China.ObjectivesEpidemiological investigations found that COVID-19 fatality rates in Wuhan, rest parts of Hubei province except Wuhan (Rest of Hubei) and rest parts of Mainland China except Hubei province (Rest of China) were different. An ecological study was conducted to analyze the reasons and provide the world with China’s anti-COVID-19 epidemic experiences.MethodsInfected cases from Mainland China were divided into three populations: Wuhan, Rest of Hubei and Rest of China. Methods were based on The Novel Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Standards. Total confirmed cases, daily severe cases, total deaths from February 12 to April 20 were collected for statistical analysis.Results50,333 total confirmed cases in Wuhan made up the most substantial part by comparison with 17,795 in Rest of Hubei and 14,630 in Rest of China, respectively. In the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic, daily severe cases in Wuhan accounted for the majority, and as the epidemic controlled, severe cases in all three populations decreased. Total deaths in Wuhan constituted the most significant proportion, with the highest 3869 in contrast to 643 in Rest of Hubei and 120 in Rest of China. The fatality rates in Wuhan ranged from 2.82% to 7.69%, much higher than 1.80–3.61% in Rest of Hubei, and 0.49–0.88% in Rest of China. Pearson chi-square test for fatality rates in the three populations demonstrated significant differences (p < 0.01).ConclusionThe ecological comparison study among the three populations have proved that social distancing, quarantine, lockdown, cutting off sources of infection and transmission routes, early detection, early isolation, early treatment are all vital to control the epidemic by reducing COVID-19 confirmed cases, severe cases and the fatality rate.

Background: Mainland China has adopted the most decisive and proactive measures to contain the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, which helps control the spread of the virus across the country. Objectives: Early epidemiological investigations found that the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic was more critical in Hubei province (Hubei) than in rest parts of mainland China (Rest of China). A cross-sectional study was conducted to answer this urgent question and provide implications for the world. Methods: Infected cases from Mainland China were divided into two groups: Hubei and the Rest of China. Prevention, quarantine, and treatment were based on The Novel Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Standards. Total confirmed cases, daily severe cases, total deaths, and total discharged cases were collected from January 20 to March 4 for statistical analysis. Results: Hubei accounted for 83.9% of China's total confirmed cases and 96.3% of China's total deaths. The percentage of severe cases and the rate of fatality in Hubei were higher than those in the Rest of China (P < 0.01). Daily severe cases in Hubei hit the peak at 11,246 cases on February 18, compared to 989 cases on February 10 in the Rest of China. The percentages of daily severe cases in both regions declined throughout the epidemic, from 23.3% to 8.6% in Hubei compared to 15.0% to 1.3% in the Rest of China. The latest fatality rate in Hubei was 4.30%, which was much higher than 0.85% in the Rest of China. Up to March 4, 64.7% of China's total confirmed cases were cured, 3.86% died, and 31.5% were under treatment. Conclusions: The implications for the world are cutting off the sources of infection and transmission routes, early detection, early isolation, and early treatment that can prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and reduce the severity and fatality rate.

The purpose of this study is to establish a 3D groundwater flow modelling for evaluating groundwater resources of the North China Plain. First, the North China Plain was divided into three aquifers vertically through a characterization of hydrogeological conditions. Groundwater model software GMS was used for modeling to divide the area of simulation into a regular network of 164 rows and 148 lines. This model was verified through fitting of the observed and the simulated groundwater flow Gelds at deep and shallow layers and comparison between the observed and simulated hydrographs at 64 typical observation wells. Furthermore, water budget analysis was also performed during the simulation period (2002–2003). Results of the established groundwater flow model showed that the average annual groundwater recharge of the North China Plain during 1991 to 2003 was 256.68×108m3/yr with safe yield of groundwater resources up to 213.49×108m3/yr, in which safe yield of shallow groundwater and that of deep groundwater was up to 191.65×108m3/yr and 22.64×108m3/yr respectively. Finally, this model was integrated with proposal for groundwater withdrawal in the study area after commencement of water supply by South‐North Water Transfer Project, aiming to predict the changing trend of groundwater regime. As indicated by prediction results, South‐North Water Transfer Project, which is favorable for effective control of expansion and intensification of existing depression cone, would play a positive role in alleviation of short supply of groundwater in the North China Plain as well as maintenance and protection of groundwater.

Meeting the United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals efficiently requires designers and engineers to solve multi-objective optimization problems involving trade-offs between social, environmental, and economical impacts. This paper presents an approach for designers and engineers to quantify the social and environmental impacts of a product at a population level and then perform a trade-off analysis between those impacts. In this approach, designers and engineers define the attributes of the product as well as the materials and processes used in the product’s life cycle. Agent-based modeling (ABM) tools that have been developed to model the social impacts of products are combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) tools that have been developed to evaluate the pressures that different processes create on the environment. Designers and engineers then evaluate the trade-offs between impacts by finding non-dominated solutions that minimize environmental impacts while maximizing positive and/or minimizing negative social impacts. Product adoption models generated by ABM allow designers and engineers to approximate population level environmental impacts and avoid Simpson’s paradox, where a reversal in choices is preferred when looking at the population level impacts versus the individual product-level impacts. This analysis of impacts has the potential to help designers and engineers create more impactful products that aid in reaching the UN sustainable development goals.

Improved water storage estimates within the North China Plain by assimilating GRACE data into the CABLE model

Impact of the changing area sown to winter wheat on crop water footprint in the North China Plain

Alleviating groundwater depletion while realizing food security for sustainable development

Preliminary analysis on economic and environmental consequences of grain production on different farm sizes in North China Plain

Observational data indicate increasing trends of surface ozone (O3) in China, despite emission controls that have resulted in reductions of precursor emissions. Here, we explore the cause of this contradiction, through analysis of surface observations (2014–2019) in China and historical observation record in the United States (US, 1990–2019). Our observation‐based analysis indicates that the reductions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions led to increase of surface O3 in North China Plain (NCP) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of around 8 ppb. However, NOx controls resulted in shift of O3 chemical regimes over NCP and YRD, with turning points between NOx‐ and volatile organic compound (VOC)‐limited regimes around 2019, while model simulations suggest transitional or NOx‐limited regimes over the rest of China. The impacts of high fine particles (PM2.5) on O3 formation has declined because of the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations. Stricter NOx controls can mitigate O3 pollutions over industrialized areas in China.

China has started the construction of the South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP; its magnitude is even greater than the Three Gorges Dam Project), to deliver about 45 billion m 3 of water from the Yangtze River to the water starving North China Plain. Is the project needed given the multiple socioeconomic, engineering, and environmental challenges and controversies it is facing and the effects of demand management programs China has been implementing in recent years? This article, through the analysis of the water shortage problems in the North China Plain and the Yellow River basin, demonstrates that considering China’s current economic base, technological capacity, and income levels, the SNWTP, while facing multiple challenges, is still needed to relieve the water deficit problems in the North China Plain. However, the SNWTP is only a partial solution to North China’s chronic water shortage problem. China should continue to actively implement and enforce its demand management programs nationwide to ensure that its limited fresh water resources are used to meet the multiple needs of human societies and ecosystems in a socially responsible, economically viable, and environmentally sustainable way.

Economic and environmental sustainability of maize-wheat rotation production when substituting mineral fertilizers with manure in the North China Plain

This article analyzes part of a ground water flow system in the North China Plain (NCP) subject to severe overexploitation and rapid depletion. A transient ground water flow model was constructed and calibrated to quantify the changes in the flow system since the predevelopment 1950s. The flow model was then used in conjunction with an optimization code to determine optimal pumping schemes that improve ground water management practices. Finally, two management scenarios, namely, urbanization and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, were evaluated for their potential impacts on the ground water resources in the study area. Although this study focuses on the NCP, it illustrates a general modeling framework for analyzing the sustainability, or the lack thereof, of ground water flow systems driven by similar hydrogeologic and economic conditions. The numerical simulation is capable of quantifying the various components of the overall flow budget and evaluating the impacts of different management scenarios. The optimization modeling allows the determination of the maximum "sustainable pumping" that satisfies a series of prescribed constraints. It can also be used to minimize the economic costs associated with ground water development and management. Furthermore, since the NCP is one of the most water scarce and economically active regions in the world, the conclusions and insights from this study are of general interest and international significance.

In late December 2019, patients of atypical pneumonia due to an unidentified microbial agent were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Subsequently, a novel coronavirus was identified as the causative pathogen which was named SARS-CoV-2. As of 12 February 2020, more than 44 000 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been confirmed in China and continue to expand. Provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China have launched first-level response to major public health emergencies one after another from 23 January 2020, which means restricting movement of people among provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and to depict the effect of restricting population movement. In this study, Excel 2010 was used to demonstrate the temporal distribution at the day level and SPSS 23.0 was used to analyse the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. We found that since 23 January 2020, Wuhan migration scale index has dropped significantly and since 26 January 2020, Hubei province migration scale index has dropped significantly. New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Wuhan gradually increased since 24 January 2020, and showed a downward trend from 6 February 2020. New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Hubei province gradually increased since 24 January 2020, and maintained at a high level from 24 January 2020 to 4 February 2020, then showed a downward trend. Wuhan migration scale index from 9 January to 22 January, 10 January to 23 January and 11 January to 24 January was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Wuhan from 22 January to 4 February. Hubei province migration scale index from 10 January to 23 January and 11 January to 24 January was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Hubei province from 22 January to 4 February. Our findings suggested that people who left Wuhan from 9 January to 22 January, and those who left Hubei province from 10 January to 24 January, led to the outbreak in the rest of China. The 'Wuhan lockdown' and the launching of the first-level response to this major public health emergency may have had a good effect on controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. Although new COVID-19 cases continued to be confirmed in China outside Wuhan and Hubei provinces, in our opinion, these are second-generation cases.